Category Archives: differential equations

The work of Alec Bogdanoff and Carol Anne Clayson on the ocean surface boundary layer

Drs Carol Anne Clayson and Alec Bogdanoff examined evaporation from the ocean surface and energy exchange at the boundary layer of the ocean surface, respectively. See also the interactive illustration here. (The above is from Dr Carol Anne Clayson’s personal … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, atmosphere, climate data, complex systems, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, energy flux, fluid dynamics, geophysics, meteorology, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution | Leave a comment

Results of short literature search on impacts of climate change upon ecosystems and bird or animal migration patterns, from the journals of the Ecological Society of America

I decided to do a quick literature search on the impacts of climate change upon ecosystems and migration patterns. I could have kept the list private, but why not make it public? Not all these articles are purely about the … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, American Statistical Association, Anthropocene, biology, climate change, climate education, climate models, complex systems, differential equations, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ecological services, Ecological Society of America, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, evidence, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, marine biology, mass extinctions, nonlinear systems, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, tragedy of the horizon | Leave a comment

David Puttnam, in a moving appeal on climate

David Puttnum (yes, the producer-director) has a very moving appeal on climate: Hat tip to Tamino. President Lyndon Johnson was the first to receive a briefing regarding the looming crisis presented by abrupt climate change. That was in 1965. And … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anthropocene, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, climate, climate change, climate disruption, Daniel Kahneman, differential equations, environment, fossil fuel infrastructure, fossil fuels, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, Joseph Schumpeter, liberal climate deniers, life purpose, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, Our Children's Trust, Principles of Planetary Climate, quantitative ecology, science, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets | Leave a comment

“Negative emissions” (from ATTP)

Originally posted on …and Then There's Physics:
I went to some Departmental talks recently and discovered that some of my colleagues are researchering possible carbon sequestration technologies. This could be very important, but appealing to negative emission technologies is…

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Worshipers, clear air capture of carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, differential equations, environment, fossil fuels, geoengineering, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, land use to fight, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, Principles of Planetary Climate, quantitative ecology, reason, reasonableness, science, sustainability, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, utility company death spiral, zero carbon | 1 Comment

A model of an electrical grid: A vision

Many people seem to view the electrical grid of the future being much like the present one. I think a lot about networks, because of my job. And I especially think a lot about network topologies, although primarily concerning the … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, Boston, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, Canettes Blues Band, clean disruption, climate business, climate economics, complex systems, corporate supply chains, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, differential equations, distributed generation, efficiency, EIA, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, extended supply chains, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Kalman filter, kriging, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Lenny Smith, local generation, marginal energy sources, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, mesh models, meteorology, microgrids, networks, New England, New York State, open data, organizational failures, pipelines, planning, prediction markets, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, resiliency, risk, Sankey diagram, smart data, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, stranded assets, supply chains, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics, time series, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wave equations, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

“Full-depth Ocean Heat Content” reblog

This is a re-blog of an excellent post at And Then There’s Physics, titled Full-depth OHC or, expanded, “full-depth ocean heat content”. Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, computation, differential equations, ensembles, environment, fluid dynamics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Lorenz, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, science, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series | Leave a comment

Rushing the +2 degree Celsius boundary

I made a comment on Google+ pertaining to a report of a recent NOAA finding. Enjoy. But remember that COP21 boundary is equivalent to 450 ppm CO2.

Posted in adaptation, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, Bill Nye, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate disruption, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, differential equations, disruption, distributed generation, Donald Trump, ecology, El Nina, El Nino, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, environmental law, Epcot, explosive methane, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, local generation, Mark Jacobson, Martyn Plummer, microgrids, Miguel Altieri, philosophy, physical materialism, R, resiliency, Ricky Rood, risk, Sankey diagram | Leave a comment

What makes me nervous

With regard to my comment at hypergeometric | July 13, 2016 at 3:50 pm on Tamino’s blog, someone challenged me on my assertion “Believe me, the +3C-+4C worlds are not places we want to go!” there. I have replied at … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bifurcations, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, complex systems, differential equations, dynamical systems, Eaarth, ecology, environment, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, methane, natural gas, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, science, the problem of evil, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization | 1 Comment

“The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Consensus”

“The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus“, T. C. Peterson, W. M. Connolley, J. Fleck, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1. Abstract Climate science as we know it today did not exist in the 1960s and 1970s. The integrated enterprise embodied in the … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate zombies, coastal communities, differential equations, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, fluid dynamics, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, investing | Leave a comment

Phytoplankton-delineated oceanic eddies near Antarctica

Excerpt, from NASA: Phytoplankton are the grass of the sea. They are floating, drifting, plant-like organisms that harness the energy of the Sun, mix it with carbon dioxide that they take from the atmosphere, and turn it into carbohydrates and … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, Antarctica, Arctic, bacteria, Carbon Cycle, complex systems, differential equations, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Emily Shuckburgh, environment, fluid dynamics, geophysics, GLMs, John Marshall, marine biology, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, NASA, numerical analysis, numerical software, oceanic eddies, oceanography, physics, phytoplankton, science, thermohaline circulation, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution | Leave a comment

That two degree limit is closer than it appears

The UNFCCC’s COP21 concluded goals which aimed for limiting global warming to C, and certainly keeping it below C, both measured with respect to pre-industrial temperatures. Bad news. According to the United States National Center for Atmospheric Research (“NCAR”), in … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Worshipers, chaos, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, complex systems, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate supply chains, critical slowing down, differential equations, Eaarth, ecology, environment, evidence, exponential growth, extended supply chains, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geoengineering, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, James Hansen, meteorology, mitigation, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the value of financial assets, Wally Broecker, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Causal Diagrams

Like Sankey diagrams, causal diagrams are a useful tool to assess and communicate complicated systems and their intrarelationships: It’s possible to use these for analysis and prescription: Here is the (promised) presentation on reenforcing loops: So how can these techniques … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, bridge to nowhere, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, causal diagrams, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, demand-side solutions, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, energy utilities, environment, exponential growth, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, methane, mitigation, natural gas, planning, prediction, rationality, reasonableness, recycling, Sankey diagram, sustainability, the right to know, zero carbon | Leave a comment

“Causal feedbacks in climate change”

Today I was reviewing and re-reading the nonlinear time series technical literature I have, seeking ideas on how to go about using the statistical ensemble learning technique called “boosting” with them. (See the very nice book, R. E. Schapire, Y. … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, boosting, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, cat1, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, complex systems, convergent cross-mapping, denial, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, Egbert van Nes, empirical likelihood, ensembles, environment, Ethan Deyle, Floris Takens, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hao Ye, machine learning, Maren Scheffer, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, state-space models, Takens embedding theorem, time series, Timothy Lenton, Victor Brovkin | 2 Comments

November Hottest Ever, and Christmas Likely To bring Record Warmth in The East (Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal; AGU Blogosphere)

The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week,… (Click on image for larger map, … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, capricious gods, climate, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, physics, science, the right to know, wave equations | Leave a comment

El Nino In A Can – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can inte… Source: El … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, astrophysics, climate, climate change, climate models, computation, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Kerry Emanuel, mathematics, maths, mesh models, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, numerical analysis, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, stochastics, supercomputers, the right to know, thermodynamics, time series | Leave a comment

On infrared radiation and Earth temperature

Good to review the basics once again. Professors Dave Archer and Ray Pierrehumbert do, in my opinion, some of the best introductions: Infrared radiation and planetary temperature.

Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate models, David Archer, differential equations, diffusion, diffusion processes, environment, evidence, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, meteorology, methane, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, Svante Arrhenius | Leave a comment

Is Earth Much More Sensitive to CO2 Than Thought?

Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:
A nahcolite from the Eocene Green River Formation. Credit: Timothy Lowenstein Phys.org: Ancient climates on Earth may have been more sensitive to carbon dioxide than was previously thought, according to new…

Posted in Anthropocene, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Principles of Planetary Climate, risk, science | Leave a comment

Southern Oscillation (SOI) correlated with Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)

To the climate community this is nothing at all new, but I spotted these time series today and thought they would make a nice exhibit on how something people have direct control over, greenhouse gas emissions, affect a “teleconnection mechanism” … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, bifurcations, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, IPCC, Mathematica, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, oceanography, open data, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, state-space models, thermodynamics, time series | Leave a comment

On differential localization of tumors using relative concentrations of ctDNA. Part 2.

Part 1 of this series introduced the idea of ctDNA and its use for detecting cancers or their resurgence, and proposed a scheme whereby relative concentrations of ctDNA at two or more sites after controlled disturbance might be used to … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, cancer research, ctDNA, differential equations, diffusion, diffusion processes, engineering, linear algebra | 1 Comment

Rabett Run reprises the Carbon Cycle … and very well, too

Eli condenses the problem with the Carbon Cycle and excessive emissions of fossil fuel CO2 to a few paragraphs, a great figure, and a trio of linear differential equations.

Posted in astrophysics, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, climate, climate disruption, conservation, differential equations, diffusion, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, meteorology, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, science, time series | Leave a comment

Waves in transmission problems ( by Jeff Galkowski)

“Distribution of resonances in scattering by thin barriers“, by Jeff Galkowski, Department of Mathematics, Stanford University. The lecture: “A solution to the wave equation for the transparent obstacle with speed 0.5. Damping is placed near the boundary of what is … Continue reading

Posted in Berkeley, differential equations, Jeff Galkowski, mathematics, maths, McGill University, physics, proud dad, quantum, rationality, reasonableness, scattering, science, Stanford University, wave equations, waves | Leave a comment

California solar users already affecting per-residence rates of non-solar utility customers

Lead article in the San Francisco Chronicle today addresses how non-solar customers of Pacific Gas & Electric are already carrying a larger burden of the network costs for that utility, costs which are reflected in their rates. This is the … Continue reading

Posted in bifurcations, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, differential equations, dynamical systems, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, environment, exponential growth, finance, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, global warming, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, maths, microgrids, natural gas, pipelines, politics, rationality, reasonableness, solar power, statistics, temporal myopia, Tony Seba, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

New Paper Shows Global Climate Model Errors are Significantly Less Than Thought (Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal)

New Paper Shows Global Climate Model Errors are Significantly Less Than Thought – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere. The paper is here, unfortunately behind a paywall. I wonder if they looked at the temperature distributions’ second moments? … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, differential equations, diffusion processes, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, physics, prediction, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, Tamino, time series | Leave a comment

Hansen et al.

Originally posted on Open Mind:
A new paper by Hansen et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous is currently under review…

Posted in adaptation, Antarctica, Anthropocene, Arctic, astrophysics, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Cauchy distribution, chance, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, COP21, denial, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, floods, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, James Hansen, mathematics, maths, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, politics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, sea level rise, statistics, Student t distribution, Tamino, temporal myopia, the right to know, transparency, UNFCCC, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Thank You

Originally posted on Open Mind:
To all the readers who make this blog worth writing: Thank you. Thank you for sharing my work. One of the things that makes me proud is that often my blog posts are used as…

Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency | Leave a comment

Sea Surface Anomalies

(Hat tip to Susan Stone.) The graphic below shows sea surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1971-2000 baseline First data are courtesy of the Climate Reanalyzer, a joint project of the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, and … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, MCMC, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, time series, transparency | 1 Comment

“Regulating Government”, from Overcoming Bias

Regulating Government. This post is about governments — with the advice of big banks — gaming pension accounts so they appear more solvent than they are.

Posted in differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, economics, finance, risk, statistics, taxes, the right to know, time series | Leave a comment

“Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky” – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

Posted in chance, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, history, mathematics, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, risk, science, statistics | Leave a comment

The CWSLab workflow tool: an experiment in community code development

Originally posted on Dr Climate:
Give anyone working in the climate sciences half a chance and they’ll chew your ear off about CMIP5. It’s the largest climate modelling project ever conducted and formed the basis for much of the IPCC…

Posted in climate, climate education, climate models, computation, differential equations, dynamical systems, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, oceanography, open source scientific software, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, Python 3, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, state-space models, statistics, time series, transparency | Leave a comment

“Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming”

Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Ray Pierrehumbert, and Dorian Abbot have a new paper out in Geophysical Research Letters which is pretty exciting, at least for me, having to do with both climate and dynamical systems. They are far from the only ones … Continue reading

Posted in bifurcations, Cauchy distribution, chance, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, science | Leave a comment