perceptions of likelihood

That’s from this Github repository, maintained by Zoni Nation, having this description. The original data are from a study by Sherman Kent at the U.S. CIA, and is quoted in at least once outside source discussing the problem.

In addition to the base rate fallacy (see an investment-related definition, too), which is just ignorance of Bayes rule, the other thing that’s interesting is the subjectivity of the categories above, particularly if they are thought of in the context of assessing risk.

About hypergeometric

See and
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