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Category Archives: games of chance
Great podcast: “Confronting uncertainty with Tamsin Edwards”
Dr Tamsin Edwards visits Professor David Spiegelhalter on his “Risky Talk” podcast. Dr Edwards is a climate scientist with the title Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography at Kings College, London. There’s much good talk about climate and its associated uncertainties, … Continue reading
Posted in alternatives to the Green New Deal, American Association for the Advancement of Science, climate change, climate denial, climate education, climate policy, climate science, David Spiegelhalter, dynamical systems, fluid dynamics, games of chance, global warming, global weirding, IPCC, model comparison, risk, Risky Talk, statistical models, statistical series
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On odds of storms, and extreme precipitation
People talk about “thousand year storms”. Rather than being a storm having a recurrence time of once in a thousand years, these are storms which have a 0.001 chance per year of occurring. Storms aren’t the only weather events of … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, catastrophe modeling, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, ecopragmatism, evidence, extreme events, extreme value distribution, flooding, floods, games of chance, global warming, global weirding, insurance, meteorological models, meteorology, R, R statistical programming language, real estate values, risk, Risky Business, riverine flooding, science, Significance
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The Democrats have no plan to address Climate Change (either)
Recall an article from the 15th November 2017 issue of The Atlantic: … [T]he Democratic Party does not have a plan to address climate change. This is true at almost every level of the policy-making process: It does not have … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, an ignorant American public, an uncaring American public, Anthropocene, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, being carbon dioxide, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, children as political casualties, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, consumption, corporate responsibility, Cult of Carbon, destructive economic development, environment, environmental law, games of chance, global blinding, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Juliana v United States
Tagged #youthvgov
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on nonlinear dynamics of hordes of people
I spent a bit of last week at a symposium honoring the work of Charney and Lorenz in fluid dynamics. I am no serious student of fluid dynamics. I have a friend, Klaus, an engineer, who is, and makes a … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, bifurcations, biology, Carl Safina, causation, complex systems, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecological services, ecology, Emily Shuckburgh, finance, Floris Takens, fluid dynamics, fluid eddies, games of chance, Hyper Anthropocene, investments, Lenny Smith, Lorenz, nonlinear, numerical algorithms, numerical analysis, politics, population biology, population dynamics, prediction markets, Principles of Planetary Climate, public transport, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, sampling networks, sustainability, Timothy Lenton, Yale University Statistics Department, zero carbon, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
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perceptions of likelihood
That’s from this Github repository, maintained by Zoni Nation, having this description. The original data are from a study by Sherman Kent at the U.S. CIA, and is quoted in at least once outside source discussing the problem. In addition … Continue reading
Disaster planning in a new climate, inland from the coasts
See Glynis Board’s “The New Normal: Super Storms Highlight Importance Of Disaster Planning”.
Posted in adaptation, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, climate disruption, flooding, floods, games of chance, hurricanes, hydrology, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, New England, nor'easters, precipitation, resiliency, risk, statistics, sustainability, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon
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POWER MOVE: Brought to you by Siemens and The Atlantic
HOW ON-SITE ENERGY SOLUTIONS CAN HELP SAVE THE GRID RE:THINK ORIGINAL SIEMENS The traditional power grid is under tremendous pressure. In many places, infrastructure needs to be upgraded. Extreme weather and cybersecurity are constant concerns. These challenges threaten entire communities … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Solar Energy Society, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, clean disruption, CleanTechnica, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, distributed generation, energy utilities, Florida, games of chance, grid defection, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Joseph Schumpeter, local generation, local self reliance, microgrids, prediction markets, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, regulatory capture, reworking infrastructure, risk, Sankey diagram, solar democracy, solar energy, stranded assets, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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Global blinding, or Nature’s revenge against meteorologists who deny climate disruption
Given climate disruption due to radiative forcing from excess atmospheric CO2, which is a premise of this blog, it is only reasonable to wonder about, speculate, hypothesize, and posit that eventually the amount of this forcing and the feedbacks in … Continue reading
Posted in Accuweather, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, climate, climate business, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, climate justice, dynamical systems, Eaarth, environment, evidence, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global blinding, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Kerry Emanuel, meteorological models, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, nonlinear systems, notes, oceanic eddies, oceanography, radiative forcing, Ricky Rood, science, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, theoretical physics
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You really can’t go home again: An update of “Getting back to 350 ppm CO2 …”
I have made an important update to an earlier post here, Getting back to 350 ppm CO2: You can’t go home again. The message, essentially based upon recent work Tokarska and Zickfield on one hand, and by The Global Carbon … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Carbon Worshipers, clear air capture of carbon dioxide, climate, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate economics, David Archer, diffusion, diffusion processes, ecological services, Eli Rabett, engineering, environment, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuel infrastructure, fossil fuels, games of chance, geoengineering, geophysics, Glen Peters, Global Carbon Project, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, science, Spaceship Earth, Susan Solomon, Svante Arrhenius, the tragedy of our present civilization, Tokarska and Zickfield, Wordpress, zero carbon
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Our uncontrolled experiment with Earth as an Astrophysics problem set
Hat tip to And then there’s Physics …: On climate change and Astrobiology , by Adam Frank.
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anthropocene, astrophysics, bacteria, bollocks, Carl Sagan, civilization, climate, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, cynicism, Daniel Kahneman, David Archer, David Suzuki, denial, destructive economic development, Eaarth, ecology, environment, environmental law, Equiterre, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, James Hansen, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, mass extinctions, meteorology, NASA, Neill deGrasse Tyson, oceanography, Our Children's Trust, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, quantitative ecology, random walks, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, Robert Young, science, sustainability
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Enough Already
“If you’re in a hole, stop digging.” “The Sky’s Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production”
Posted in Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to nowhere, climate change, climate disruption, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, games of chance, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, natural gas, population biology, population dynamics, Principles of Planetary Climate, quantitative ecology, science, the energy of the people, the green century, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, wind energy, wind power, Yale University Statistics Department, zero carbon
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David Spiegelhalter on `how to spot a dodgy statistic’
In this political season, it’s useful to brush up on rhetorical skills, particularly ones involving numbers and statistics, or what John Allen Paulos called numeracy. Professor David Spiegelhalter has written a guide to some of these tricks. Read the whole … Continue reading
Posted in abstraction, anemic data, Bayes, Bayesian, chance, citizenship, civilization, corruption, Daniel Kahneman, disingenuity, Donald Trump, education, games of chance, ignorance, maths, moral leadership, obfuscating data, open data, perceptions, politics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, rhetoric, risk, sampling, science, sociology, statistics, the right to know
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What makes me nervous
With regard to my comment at hypergeometric | July 13, 2016 at 3:50 pm on Tamino’s blog, someone challenged me on my assertion “Believe me, the +3C-+4C worlds are not places we want to go!” there. I have replied at … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bifurcations, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, complex systems, differential equations, dynamical systems, Eaarth, ecology, environment, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, methane, natural gas, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, science, the problem of evil, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization
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Climate Denial Fails Pepsi Challenge
Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:
Stephen Lewandowsky specializes in conducting research that pulls back the curtain climate denial psychology. He’s done it again. Washington Post: Researchers have designed an inventive test suggesting that the arguments commonly used…
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, card draws, card games, chance, climate, climate change, climate data, climate education, confirmation bias, data science, denial, disingenuity, education, false advertising, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, ignorance, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, obfuscating data, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, the right to know
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“Once a change is inevitable, it’s not whether I get on board, it’s when do I get on board?”
… When I was a young engineer, and if somebody asked us, ‘Is it possible to integrate more than 5% of solar and wind power into the system?’ all experienced engineers said ‘No way. We will face serious problems and … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, Buckminster Fuller, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, clean disruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, destructive economic development, disruption, electricity markets, energy utilities, engineering, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuel divestment, games of chance, grid defection, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, local generation, Mark Jacobson, Massachusetts, New England, rationality, reasonableness, resiliency, Sankey diagram, solar domination, solar energy, Solar Freakin' Roadways, solar power, SolarPV.tv, the energy of the people, the green century, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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Responsibility
From China’s emissions glimpsing the peak: (Click graph for a larger figure. Use your browser Back Button to return to blog.) (Click graph for a larger figure. Use your browser Back Button to return to blog.)
Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, Eaarth, ecology, economics, energy, environment, environmental law, fossil fuels, games of chance, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, ISO-NE, moral leadership, resiliency, science, sustainability, T'kun Olam, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets
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Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)
(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading
Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
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“Lucky d20” (by Tamino, with my reblogging comments)
Originally posted on Open Mind:
What with talk of killer heat waves, droughts, floods, etc. etc., this blog tends to get pretty serious. When it does, we don’t deal with happy prospects, but with the danger of worldwide catastrophe. But…
Mr Buffett bets the farm
From Dr James Hansen’s blog, of today. So, Mr. Buffett, I am heartened by the words in your last annual report, where you conclude that continued inaction on climate change “is foolhardy.” You wrote: “Call this Noah’s Law: If an … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, environment, extended supply chains, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, insurance, investing, James Hansen, liberal climate deniers, meteorology, oceanography, physics, rate of return regulation, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistical dependence, statistics, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, Wally Broecker, Warren Buffett, zero carbon
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Remember 2012?
“Welcome to the rest of our lives …” Peter Sinclair speculates 2016 will be as bad and possibly worse than 2012.
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, Carbon Worshipers, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, denial, environment, Exxon, FEMA, forecasting, forest fires, fossil fuels, fracking, games of chance, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, liberal climate deniers, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, meteorology, physics, rationality, reasonableness, regime shifts, science, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets
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Ah, Hypergeometric!
(“Ah, Hypergeometric!” To be said with the same resignation and acceptance as in “I’ll burn my books–Ah, Mephistopheles!” from Faust.)😉 Dr John Cook, eminent all ’round statistician (with a specialty in biostatistics) and statistical consultant, took up a comment I … Continue reading
Tesla. No, not the car.
From Climate Denial Crock of the Week. THE PROBLEM OF INCREASING HUMAN ENERGY WITH SPECIAL REFERENCES TO THE HARNESSING OF THE SUN’S ENERGY (Excerpt) THE SOURCE OF HUMAN ENERGY—THE THREE WAYS OF DRAWING ENERGY FROM THE SUN First let us … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Cape Wind, Carbon Worshipers, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, engineering, environment, fossil fuels, games of chance, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, Mark Jacobson, meteorology, microgrids, Nikola Tesla, rationality, reasonableness, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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Techno Utopias
Professor Kevin Anderson on Techno Utopias. The Paris “COP21” agreement is/was not only expecting miracles, it was counting on them. Y’think climate disruption causes ecosystem disruption: Try geoengineering. Well the answer was simple. If we choose to continue our love … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, coastal communities, complex systems, consumption, COP21, corporate supply chains, denial, disingenuity, economics, environment, ethics, evidence, exponential growth, extended supply chains, FEMA, finance, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, glaciers, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, icesheets, ignorance, IPCC, James Hansen, Kevin Anderson, Lenny Smith, liberal climate deniers, living shorelines, MA, meteorology, Neill deGrasse Tyson, oceanography, physics, planning, population biology, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, regime shifts, Sankey diagram, science, sea level rise, selfishness, silly tech devices, Techno Utopias, the right to know, the value of financial assets
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climate impacts upon corporate supply chains
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/advisory/consulting/risk/resilience/publications/business-not-as-usual.html https://www.aig.com/Chartis/internet/US/en/TheVulnerabilityofGlobalSupplyChains_tcm3171-663222.pdf http://phys.org/news/2014-02-quantifying-global-chain-due-climate.html http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/06/27/address-climate-risks-supply-chain
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, chance, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, compassion, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate supply chains, economics, evidence, forecasting, games of chance, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, meteorology, optimization, planning, risk, Sankey diagram, science, sustainability
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House Science, Space, and Technology Committee vs National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation
Originally posted on Open Mind:
[Climate blogger Michael Tobis has written the best summary of the Smith-vs-NOAA brouhaha that I’ve yet seen. Please read it in its entirety, then follow the link and read it again. More important, pass it…
Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, Carbon Worshipers, citizen science, citizenship, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, denial, disingenuity, education, environment, ethics, Exxon, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, time series, zero carbon
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time to hear
Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, capricious gods, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate change, climate justice, COP21, decentralized electric power generation, demand-side solutions, fossil fuel divestment, games of chance, global warming
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Global Sea Level Rise by NASA Satellite since 1993
Y’know those NASA satellites Republican Presidential candidate Ted Cruz is so proud to tell us say that there’s been no warming of Earth in 18 years? Well, that’s wrong, of course, but it’s the same organization and the same kinds … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, Cauchy distribution, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, destructive economic development, economics, floods, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, icesheets, living shorelines, MA, meteorology, oceanography, planning, politics, rationality, reasonableness, science, sea level rise, statistics
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Holy F_____’ Sh__: Bill Gates, climate champion
Bill Gates. In The Atlantic. “We need an energy miracle.” “Bill Gates versus global warming.” I gotta say, whatever you think about him, he is truly alive, and engaged. He changes his opinion when the evidence indicates it. And that … Continue reading
Exxon-Mobil digging its own grave
Climate Denial Crock of the Week features the latest revelation from Inside Climate News. It features former federal chief scientist for global warming research, Michael MacCracken, and physicist and climate scientist Gilbert Plass. Also featured is an open 2002 letter … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, capricious gods, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, denial, ecology, energy, energy utilities, environment, Exxon, forecasting, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, humanism, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, meteorology, methane, natural gas, obfuscating data, rationality, reasonableness, science, sustainability, UU Humanists
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How nice it is that Nature and probability bend to developers whims!
As I have mentioned before, it’s so nice that Nature and probability bend to the whims of property developers and their Town Fathers, with the willing participation of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). If you had property at risk … Continue reading
Posted in capricious gods, chance, citizenship, climate data, conservation, denial, ecology, engineering, environment, ethics, games of chance, ignorance, living shorelines, mathematics, meteorology, obfuscating data, planning, politics, precipitation, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, risk, spatial statistics, University Station, Westwood
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ecoquant
