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Tag Archives: economic choice

Economics, Melting, and Sea-Level Rise (Professor Richard Alley)

Posted on 24 November 2013 by ecoquant
Posted in climate, climate education, ecology, environment, geoengineering, geophysics, meteorology, oceanography, physics, science | Tagged climate, econimics, economic choice, economic efficiency, environment, geophysics, planning, policy, rational actors | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Earle Wilson
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Karl Broman
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Slice Sampling
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • What If
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Ted Dunning
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
  • climate change

    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Ice and Snow
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Sea Change Boston
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • weather blocking patterns
    • SolarLove
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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