667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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Tag Archives: extreme events

“The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events”: Stefan Rahmstorf

Posted on 29 March 2014 by ecoquant

The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events.

Posted in carbon dioxide, climate, climate education, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, probabilistic programming, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics | Tagged extreme events | Leave a comment
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    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
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    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
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    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
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    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Earle Wilson
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    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
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    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
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    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
  • climate change

    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
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    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
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    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
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    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
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    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Sea Change Boston
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
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    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Reanalyses.org
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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