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“The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events”: Stefan Rahmstorf

Posted on 29 March 2014 by ecoquant

The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events.

Posted in carbon dioxide, climate, climate education, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, probabilistic programming, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics | Tagged extreme events | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Earle Wilson
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • London Review of Books
    • All about models
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • American Statistical Association
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • All about Sankey diagrams
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    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
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    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
  • climate change

    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • SolarLove
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Earth System Models
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Skeptical Science
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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