Category: probabilistic programming

• Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

  Akaike Information Criterion . approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . evidence . Frequentist . games of chance . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . likelihood-free . mathematics . maths . maximum likelihood . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . probabilistic programming . rationality . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . Simpson’s Paradox . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastics

  May 7.2016

• 

  “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . Boltzmann . BUGS . Christian Robert . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . likelihood-free . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . Martyn Plummer . mathematics . maths . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . optimization . probabilistic programming . SPSA . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Feb 9.2016
• Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . generalized linear models . machine learning . numerical analysis . numerical software . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . support of black boxes

  Jan 25.2016
• What the future of energy everywhere looks like

  adaptation . Anthropocene . capricious gods . chance . citizenship . civilization . clean disruption . conservation . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . destructive economic development . dynamical systems . economics . efficiency . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . environment . ethics . forecasting . fossil fuel divestment . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . investment in wind and solar energy . living shorelines . mesh models . meteorology . microgrids . mitigation . obfuscating data . oceanography . physical materialism . physics . pipelines . planning . politics . prediction . probabilistic programming . public utility commissions . PUCs . quantum . reasonableness . reproducible research . risk . Sankey diagram . science . sea level rise . selfishness . solar energy . solar power . SolarPV.tv . Spaceship Earth . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . Svante Arrhenius . taxes . temporal myopia . the right to know . the value of financial assets . transparency . UU Humanists . WHOI . wind energy . wind power . zero carbon

  Nov 2.2015
• Solar array with cloud predicting technology launched in WA

  adaptation . Anthropocene . carbon dioxide . citizenship . civilization . clean disruption . climate . climate change . climate disruption . conservation . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . dynamic linear models . efficiency . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . environment . ethics . forecasting . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . investment in wind and solar energy . Kalman filter . mathematics . maths . meteorology . microgrids . mitigation . NCAR . numerical software . optimization . physics . prediction . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . solar power . stochastics . sustainability . time series

  Aug 31.2015
• Thank You

  astrophysics . citizen science . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate education . climate models . differential equations . dynamical systems . ecology . ensembles . forecasting . games of chance . geophysics . global warming . hiatus . Hyper Anthropocene . IPCC . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . meteorology . model comparison . new forms of scientific peer review . open data . open source scientific software . physics . probabilistic programming . probability . rationality . reasonableness . reproducible research . risk . science . science education . spatial statistics . statistics . Tamino . the right to know . time series . transparency

  Jul 27.2015
• “Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?” (from Xian)

  arXiv . Bayes . Bayesian . Cauchy distribution . information theoretic statistics . mathematics . maths . optimization . probabilistic programming . probability . rationality . reasonableness . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . Student t distribution

  May 18.2015
• “A vignette on Metropolis” (Christian Robert)

  Bayes . Bayesian . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . MCMC . optimization . probabilistic programming . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Apr 12.2015
• “Unbiased Bayes for Big Data: Path of partial posteriors” (Christian Robert)

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . mathematics . maths . MCMC . optimization . probabilistic programming . statistics . stochastic algorithms

  Mar 22.2015
• Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler

  Bayes . Bayesian . BUGS . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . mathematics . maths . MCMC . probabilistic programming . rationality . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Feb 19.2015
• The designers of our climate

  astrophysics . bridge to nowhere . carbon dioxide . carbon dioxide capture . carbon dioxide sequestration . Carbon Tax . Carl Sagan . citizenship . civilization . climate . climate change . climate education . differential equations . ecology . economics . engineering . environment . ethics . forecasting . fossil fuel divestment . geoengineering . geophysics . humanism . IPCC . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . meteorology . methane . NASA . NCAR . Neill deGrasse Tyson . NOAA . oceanography . open data . open source scientific software . physics . politics . population biology . Principles of Planetary Climate . probabilistic programming . R . rationality . reasonableness . reproducible research . risk . science . science education . scientific publishing . sociology . solar power . statistics . testing . the right to know

  Jan 27.2015
• Heads-up limit hold’em poker is solved

  games of chance . probabilistic programming . risk

  Jan 8.2015
• On nested equivalence classes of climate models, ordered by computational complexity

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . biology . ecology . environment . forecasting . geophysics . IPCC . mathematics . maths . MCMC . meteorology . NCAR . NOAA . oceanography . optimization . population biology . Principles of Planetary Climate . probabilistic programming . R . science . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Jan 2.2015
• “[W]e want to model the process as we would simulate it.”

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . biology . ecology . engineering . forecasting . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . model comparison . optimization . population biology . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . science education . sociology . statistics . stochastic algorithms

  Dec 28.2014
• struggling with problems already partly solved by others

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . biology . climate . climate education . differential equations . ecology . engineering . environment . geophysics . IPCC . mathematics . mathematics education . meteorology . model comparison . NCAR . NOAA . oceanography . physics . population biology . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . science education . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Dec 26.2014
• illustrating particle filters and Bayesian fusion using successive location estimates on the unit circle

  Bayes . Bayesian . biology . mathematics . maths . population biology . probabilistic programming . R . statistics . stochastic algorithms

  Dec 26.2014
• An equation-free introduction to Bayesian inference

  Bayes . Bayesian . BUGS . JAGS . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . science education . statistics

  Dec 7.2014
• example of Bayesian inversion

  Bayesian . climate education . ecology . environment . forecasting . geophysics . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . mathematics . maths . MCMC . physics . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . statistics

  Dec 7.2014
• Bayesian deconvolution of stick lengths

  Bayesian . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . mathematics . maths . optimization . probabilistic programming . R . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Nov 24.2014
• Blind Bayesian recovery of components of residential solid waste tonnage from totals data

  Bayesian . BUGS . conservation . consumption . engineering . environment . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . mathematics . maths . MCMC . MSW . politics . probabilistic programming . R . rationality . recycling . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Sep 8.2014
• “The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”

  Bayesian . BUGS . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . MCMC . optimization . probabilistic programming . R . rationality . reasonableness . risk . SPSA . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search

  Aug 27.2014
• How fast is JAGS?

  BUGS . engineering . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . mathematics . maths . MCMC . probabilistic programming . R . statistics . stochastic algorithms

  Aug 27.2014
• Comment on “How urban anonymity disappears when all data is tracked”, an article in the NY Times

  citizenship . civilization . economics . education . engineering . Internet . investing . obfuscating data . politics . privacy . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . risk . statistics . stochastic algorithms

  Apr 20.2014
• “The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events”: Stefan Rahmstorf

  carbon dioxide . climate . climate education . forecasting . geophysics . mathematics . maths . meteorology . physics . probabilistic programming . reasonableness . risk . science . statistics

  Mar 29.2014
• Dr David Gallo of WHOI on today’s “Face the Nation” on CBS: MH370

  engineering . history . meteorology . oceanography . probabilistic programming . WHOI

  Mar 23.2014
• The zero-crossings trick for JAGS: Finding roots stochastically

  Bayesian . BUGS . education . forecasting . Gibbs Sampling . JAGS . mathematics . MCMC . probabilistic programming . R . statistics . stochastic search

  Feb 17.2014
• “Data-driven science is a failure of imagination” (Petr Keil)

  Bayesian . engineering . history . mathematics . maths . MCMC . probabilistic programming . rationality . science

  Jan 19.2014