Very,

well done, Tamino.very

One day, a new data set is released. The rumor runs rampant that it’s annual average global temperature since 1980.

Climate scientist “A” states that there is clearly a warming trend (shown by the red line), at an average rate of about 0.0139 deg.C/yr. She even computes the *uncertainty* in that trend estimate (using fancy statistics), and uses that to compute what’s called a “95% confidence interval” for the trend — the range in which we expect the true warming rate is 95% likely to be; it can be thought of as the “plausible range” for the warming rate. Since 95% confidence is the *de facto* standard in statistics (not universal, but by far the most common), nobody can fault her for that choice. The confidence interval is from 0.0098 to 0.0159 deg.C/yr. She also adds that there’s no sign of any slowdown in the rate of warming.

View original post 1,016 more words