Understanding mechanisms in climate over short periods and in local regions

This is interesting, because it shows how any particular observational history of Earth is one election of a large number of possible futures. This is exactly the same point made by Slava Kharin in his 2008 tutorial lecture “Statistical concepts in climate research“. See his slide 5.

Note the comment about 31 minutes in regarding how models are very good at estimating global mean surface temperature increases, but chaos affects regional predictions.

A take-away for me is that is foolish to expect to detect climatological variations due to radiative forcing from greenhouse gases in any particular region over any time period shy of a few generations. Yet people seem to do it and want to do it all the time. This really means that climate change, as a phenomenon, is based on the well understood physics and paleoclimate records, not at all from generalizations of meteorology.

About hypergeometric

See http://www.linkedin.com/in/deepdevelopment/ and http://667-per-cm.net
This entry was posted in carbon dioxide, climate, climate education, differential equations, ecology, energy, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Understanding mechanisms in climate over short periods and in local regions

  1. Pingback: struggling with problems already attacked | Hypergeometric

  2. Pingback: climate internal variability is just residual variance from modeling with a smooth curve? | Hypergeometric

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s