667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: ABLS

New Meetup: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens

Posted on 26 February 2021 by ecoquant

I have started a new Meetup group: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens. I am inviting anyone with an interest in mosses and lichens to join in, particularly if you live in the “greater Massachusetts area”. Because of pandemic, there’ll be no … Continue reading →

Posted in ABLS, American Bryological and Lichenological Society, American Statistical Association, biology, Botany, Brent Mishler, bryology, bryophytes, citizen data, citizen science, ecology, field biology, field research, field science, Hale Reservation, Janice Glime, Jerry Jenkins, lichenology, lichens, longitudinal survey of mosses, macrophotography, maths, mesh models, mosses, Nancy G Slack, National Phenology Network, population biology, population dynamics, Ralph Pope, science, spatial statistics, statistical ecology, Sue Williams, the right to know, Westwood | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Label Noise
    • Awkward Botany
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • Slice Sampling
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Mertonian norms
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • London Review of Books
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • Earle Wilson
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
  • climate change

    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • weather blocking patterns
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Sea Change Boston
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Skeptical Science
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Earth System Models
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
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    • My favorite presentation on climate disruption these days 23 November 2021
    • Photo of the week: Repeatedly distressed Mnium hornum 19 November 2021
    • Gee, if all maths classes were like this, they’d be exhausting … 18 November 2021
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    • Yeah, like many aspects of the biosphere, forests and their contribution to sequestering Carbon is complicated 21 October 2021
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    • Meet Solkjøring 28 September 2021
    • Greta, YouthCOP, 2021 28 September 2021
    • First Contact, and the Long Now Foundation 26 September 2021
    • Vineyard Sound, Rhode Island Sound, August, 2021 17 September 2021
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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