Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Top Posts & Pages
- Comprehensive and compact tutorial on Petris' DLM package in R; with an update about Helske's KFAS
- Another reason we need to stop developing: `If the cement industry were a country, it would be the third largest emitter in the world.'
- Uniform sampling of a disk, and implications for sampling the Internet
Archives
Author Archives: ecoquant
Simplistic and Dangerous Models
Originally posted on Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology:
A few weeks ago there were none. Three weeks ago, with an entirely inadequate search strategy, ten cases were found. Last Saturday there were 43! With three inaccurate data points, there is enough information…
Major Ocean Currents Drifting Polewards
Living on Earth, the environmental news program of Public Radio, featured Amy Bower, Senior Scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, on 27th March 2020 to discuss new research from the Alfred Wegener Institute showing that major ocean currents are drifting … Continue reading
Posted in science
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Keep fossil fuels in the ground
Ah, wouldn’t it be lovely!? Is this the beginning of the Minsky Moment Mark Carney has feared? In short, that was because the trading markets had not priced in (a) the risks from climate change, and (b) the risks from … Continue reading
“Lockdown WORKS”
Originally posted on Open Mind:
Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…
“coronavirus counts do not count”
via coronavirus counts do not count
Cloud brightening hits a salty snag
The proposal known as solar radiation management is complicated. It just got moreso. Released Wednesday: Fossum, K.N., Ovadnevaite, J., Ceburnis, D. et al. “Sea-spray regulates sulfate cloud droplet activation over oceans“, Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3(14): (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0116-2 [open access] … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, atmosphere, being carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, chemistry, climate disruption, climate mitigation, climate nightmares, climate policy, cloud brightening, ecomodernism, emissions, geoengineering, global warming, Ken Caldeira, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorological models, meteorology, mitigating climate disruption, NASA, National Center for Atmospheric Research, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, solar radiation management, sustainability, Wally Broecker, water vapor, wishful environmentalism, zero carbon
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Machiavelli
It’s right out of Machiavelli’s The Prince. #covid_19 #coronavirus Even for the Trump administration, it is odd they are pushing #Hydroxychloroquine and #Azithromycin so hard, against medical advice and evidence. I’ve thought about this and, given the growing animosity between … Continue reading
Oldie and Goodie: `Testing a point Null Hypothesis: The irreconcilability of p-values and evidence’
A blog post by Professor Christian Robert mentioned a paper by Professors James Berger and Tom Sellke, which I downloaded several years back but never got around to reading. J. O. Berger, T. M. Sellke, “Testing a point Null Hypothesis: … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayes, Bayesian, p-value
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“Social Distancing Works”
Originally posted on Open Mind:
First, the bad news. The death toll from Coronavirus in the U.S.A. stands at 4,059, and more alarming is the fact that yesterday brought nearly a thousand deaths in a single day. The numbers keep…
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New COVID-19 incidence in the United States as AR(1) processes
There are several sources of information regarding Covid-19 incidence now available. This post uses data from a single source: the COVID Tracking Project. In particular I restrict attention to cumulative daily case counts for the United States, the UK, and … Continue reading
Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, pandemic, regression, SARS-CoV-2
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What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth
This is the newly updated map of COVID-19 cases in the United States, updated, presumably, because of the new emphasis upon testing: How do we know this is the recent of recent testing? Look at the map of active cases: … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, climate denial, corruption, data science, data visualization, Donald Trump, dump Trump, epidemiology, experimental science, exponential growth, forecasting, Kalman filter, model-free forecasting, nonlinear systems, open data, penalized spline regression, population dynamics, sampling algorithms, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, the stack of lies
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Meteorological Spring, and the Atlantic’s primary producers are jumping the phenological gun
Primary producers These are from NASA’s Aqua-MODIS, meaning, Aqua satellite, MODIS instrument: (Click image to see a larger figure.) (Click image to see a larger figure.) (h/t Earth Observatory at NASA) See my related blog post. And, note, it’s all … Continue reading
R ecosystem package coronavirus
Dr Rami Krispin of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) has just released the R package coronavirus, which “provides a daily summary of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by state/province“, caused by 2019-nCoV. (update 2020-03-12 … Continue reading
Posted in data presentation, data science, epidemiology
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Curiosity`s recent view of Mars
“NASA Curiosity Project Scientist Ashwin Vasavada guides this tour of the rover’s view of the Martian surface.” With a little imagination, feels like a de-vegetated version of the Northern Coastal Ranges of California, looking inland.
Posted in Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA
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Mike Bloomberg 2020: Climate Warrior
Mike will immediately make tackling climate change one of his highest priorities by leading a nationwide push to rebuild American communities and infrastructure with 100% clean energy technology, reducing carbon pollution 50% by 2030. He will propel the U.S. toward … Continue reading
“Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications”
via Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications From Professor Ewan Cameron at his Another Astrostatistics Blog.
Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app
This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal of the American Statistical … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo
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“The truly common core”
Repost of “The truly common core“, from Ben Orlin‘s Math with Bad Drawings blog. https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2020/02/19/uncommon-core-standards/
Posted in education, mathematics, mathematics education, maths
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Another kind of latent data: That encoded in journal and report figures
Many scholars today expect to find data as datasets. When I took some courses in Geology at Binghamton University, specifically in Tectonics and Paleomagnetism, I learned that libraries serves, in many cases, as Geologists’ repositories of data. No, the libraries … Continue reading
“Because we need to make the science stick.”
H. Holden Thorp, writing in Science, an excerpt: The scientific community needs to step out of its labs and support evidence-based decision-making in a much more public way. The good news is that over the past few years, scientists have … Continue reading
Australia: Too little, too late, and what about the future?
Or, in other words, borrowing from a bookstore in Cobargo, New South Wales: “Post-Apocalyptic Fiction has been moved to Current Affairs.”
Greta Thunberg on the BBC : Her guest edit
Also featuring: Svante Thunberg Sir David Attenborough Mark Carney Robert Del Naja Maarten Wetselaar Synopsis Svante Thunberg and Greta speaking to Sir David Attenborough for the first time. Also, outgoing Bank of England chief Mark Carney on how the financial … Continue reading
Posted in being carbon dioxide, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, climate disruption, corporate responsibility, Cult of Carbon, ecomodernism, global warming, Green New Deal, greenhouse gases, Greta Thunberg, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, Juliana v United States, keep fossil fuels in ground, Mark Carney, mitigating climate disruption, On being Carbon Dioxide, Our Children's Trust, radiative forcing, Svante Arrhenius, the green century, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, zero carbon
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Why Massachusetts needs the Transportation and Climate Initiative
The Massachusetts Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI) or something very much like it, perhaps stronger, is needed because of one simple reason. The false color heatmap below shows the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from roadways in Southern New England in … Continue reading
Posted in an uncaring American public, being carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, climate change, climate disruption, ecological disruption, electricity markets, emissions, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuel infrastructure, fossil fuels, gas pipeline leaks, Global Carbon Project, global warming, Governor Charlie Baker, keep fossil fuels in ground, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Massachusetts, mitigating climate disruption, pollution, public health, public transport, public utility commissions, public welfare, the tragedy of our present civilization, unreason, vehicle emissions, zero carbon
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We shouldn’t forget where we are on the course towards climate disruption
We shouldn’t forget where we are on the course towards climate disruption. We shouldn’t forget we’ve already disrupted. Emissions are still increasing. This means it’s getting worse every year. It is not something which is in the future. It’s here … Continue reading
More reasons why centralized grids and ISOs/RTOs cannot be trusted, with an afterthought
From Inside Climate News and I’m sure it’ll eventually show up at Legal Planet, where they touched the matter over a year ago: The new rules, approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, are designed to counteract state subsidies that … Continue reading
Posted in American Solar Energy Society, an ignorant American public, an uncaring American public, Ørsted, Berkeley Haas Energy, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to somewhere, Carbon Worshipers, children as political casualties, clean disruption, CleanTechnica, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, Cult of Carbon, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, distributed generation, ecomodernism, ecopragmatism, electric vehicles, electrical energy storage, electricity, electricity markets, emissions, energy levy, energy storage, fossil fuel infrastructure, green tech, Green Tech Media, greenhouse gases, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, IEEE, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Karl Ragabo, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, local generation, local self reliance, Mark Jacobson, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, Michael Bloomberg, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, population dynamics, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, regulatory capture, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, solar revolution, SunPower, the green century, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, tragedy of the horizon, utility company death spiral, Westwood, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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On odds of storms, and extreme precipitation
People talk about “thousand year storms”. Rather than being a storm having a recurrence time of once in a thousand years, these are storms which have a 0.001 chance per year of occurring. Storms aren’t the only weather events of … Continue reading
Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, catastrophe modeling, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, ecopragmatism, evidence, extreme events, extreme value distribution, flooding, floods, games of chance, global warming, global weirding, insurance, meteorological models, meteorology, R, R statistical programming language, real estate values, risk, Risky Business, riverine flooding, science, Significance
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There’s Big Data, Tiny Data, and now Dead Data
You’ve heard of Big Data. You may have heard of Tiny Data. But now, presented in the Harvard Data Science Review, Professor Steve Stigler presents Dead Data See: S. M. Stigler, “Data have a limited shelf life”, Harvard Data Science … Continue reading
Posted in big data, dead data, statistics, tiny data
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