## David Suzuki on the 59th minute and exponential growth

### 3 Responses to David Suzuki on the 59th minute and exponential growth

1. Berényi Péter says:

Except world population stopped growing exponentially twenty years ago. Since then population under 15 is stable.

Overall population only keeps growing because of increasing life expectancy, which is a good thing, after all. However, it is not exponential any more, because no one can produce more than one dotard ever by simply getting old.

That’s because women (unlike men) are rational beings.

To stabilize population two things are needed:

Decrease infant mortality substantially
Increase educational level of girls

If any one of these two preconditions are missing, you have a population explosion. Specifically, increasing educational level of boys alone does not have any effect.

But as soon as they are both met, it works like magic.

• Yeah, except that that’s incredibly short-sighted. Suzuki is talking about any process that grows $\propto \exp{(k\frac{t}{T})}$, with $0 < k < 1$ and usually $k$ small. Could be fossil fuel availability. Could be capacity of atmosphere below some (unknown) limit that there are (relatively) catastrophic climatic changes. Suzuki’s emphasis upon the 59th minute, and mine, make that obvious.

And, a reminder, you are no longer at Azimuth. My rules are more stringent, and, in my opinion, Azimuth and, for that matter, Science of Doom are way too civil that way. I don’t tolerate bullshit, however sophisticated it is dressed up. I’m more like Tamino and PZ Myers that way. And if you don’t like it, you are not welcome here: The First Amendment doesn’t apply. This is private property.

2. jyyh says:

Ah, the famed fable of bacteria I first heard in the c.1994 class of bacteriology… don’t know who came up with it but surely taking the full implications in as a guideline for future would be advisable to many…

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