Tamino favors
LASSOLOESS and piecewise linear models. I favor splines, especially penalized smoothing splines via the R package pspline, using generalized cross validation to set the smoothing parameter. Tamino looks for breaks in the piecewise linear case to check for and test for significant changes. I use the first and higher derivatives of the spline.Both methods are sound and good.
I don’t know how you might use a random forest regression for this purpose, but I bet there is a way. I doubt it is as good, though.
Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot)
View original post 241 more words
Pingback: Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths | hypergeometric