“Lockdown WORKS”

Tamino favors LASSO LOESS and piecewise linear models. I favor splines, especially penalized smoothing splines via the R package pspline, using generalized cross validation to set the smoothing parameter. Tamino looks for breaks in the piecewise linear case to check for and test for significant changes. I use the first and higher derivatives of the spline.

Both methods are sound and good.

I don’t know how you might use a random forest regression for this purpose, but I bet there is a way. I doubt it is as good, though.

Open Mind

Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot)

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About ecoquant

See https://wordpress.com/view/667-per-cm.net/ Retired data scientist and statistician. Now working projects in quantitative ecology and, specifically, phenology of Bryophyta and technical methods for their study.
This entry was posted in forecasting, penalized spline regression, science, splines, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, time series. Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to “Lockdown WORKS”

  1. Pingback: Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths | hypergeometric

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