Category Archives: penalized spline regression

Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths

There are many ways of presenting analytical summaries of new series data for which the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. With respect to series describing the COVID-19 pandemic, Tamino has used piecewise linear models. I have mentioned how I prefered … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, functional data analysis, pandemic, penalized spline regression, phase plane plot, SARS-CoV-2, splines | 13 Comments

“Lockdown WORKS”

Originally posted on Open Mind:
Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…

Posted in forecasting, penalized spline regression, science, splines, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, time series | 1 Comment

What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth

This is the newly updated map of COVID-19 cases in the United States, updated, presumably, because of the new emphasis upon testing: How do we know this is the recent of recent testing? Look at the map of active cases: … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, climate denial, corruption, data science, data visualization, Donald Trump, dump Trump, epidemiology, experimental science, exponential growth, forecasting, Kalman filter, model-free forecasting, nonlinear systems, open data, penalized spline regression, population dynamics, sampling algorithms, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, the stack of lies | 1 Comment

Temperatures, Summers, Germany, ≈ 50.5N to 57.5N latitude

(Click on figure for larger image and use browser Back Button to return to blog.) Hat tip to Gregor Aisch, Adam Pearce, and Steve Hoey, and sourced from the mashup dataset and visuals by Lisa Charlotte Rost. Mr Aisch’s innovation … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, climate change, data presentation, data science, data visualization, digital art, drought, Germany, global warming, loess, p-spline, penalized spline regression | Leave a comment