### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- What If
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- "The Expert"
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Slice Sampling
- Awkward Botany
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- All about models
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Label Noise
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Professor David Draper
- James' Empty Blog
- Ted Dunning
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Mertonian norms
- Gavin Simpson
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference

### climate change

- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Reanalyses.org
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Social Cost of Carbon
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Earth System Models
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Risk and Well-Being
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Simple models of climate change
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- World Weather Attribution
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- The Sunlight Economy
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: time series

## “Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions”

J. Dehning et al., Science 369, eabb9789 (2020). DOI: 10.1126/science.abb9789 Source code and data. Note: This is not a classical approach to assessing strength of interventions using either counterfactuals or other kinds of causal inference. Accordingly, the argument for the … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, causal inference, causation, changepoint detection, coronavirus, counterfactuals, COVID-19, epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2, state-space models, statistical series, time series
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## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## “Lockdown WORKS”

Originally posted on Open Mind:

Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…

## A response to a post on *RealClimate*

(Updated 2342 EDT, 28 June 2019.) This is a response to a post on RealClimate which primarily concerned economist Ross McKitrick’s op-ed in the Financial Post condemning the geophysical community for disregarding Roger Pielke, Jr’s arguments. Pielke, in that link, … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Bayesian, climate change, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, evidence, experimental design, Frequentist, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, machine learning, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, science, science denier, statistical series, statistics, time series
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## Procrustes tangent distance is better than SNCD

I’ve written two posts here on using a Symmetrized Normalized Compression Divergence or SNCD for comparing time series. One introduced the SNCD and described its relationship to compression distance, and the other applied the SNCD to clustering days at a … Continue reading

Posted in data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, hydrology, Ian Dryden, information theoretic statistics, J.T.Kent, Kanti Mardia, non-parametric statistics, normalized compression divergence, quantitative ecology, R statistical programming language, spatial statistics, statistical series, time series
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## Repeating Bullshit

Originally posted on Open Mind:

Question: How does a dumb claim go from just a dumb claim, to accepted canon by the climate change denialati? Answer: Repetition. Yes, keep repeating it. If it’s contradicted by evidence, ignore that or insult…

## Stream flow and P-splines: Using built-in estimates for smoothing

Mother Brook in Dedham Massachusetts was the first man-made canal in the United States. Dug in 1639, it connects the Charles River at Dedham, to the Neponset River in the Hyde Park section of Boston. It was originally an important … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, citizen data, citizen science, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, cross-validation, data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, dynamic linear models, empirical likelihood, environment, flooding, floods, Grant Foster, hydrology, likelihood-free, meteorological models, model-free forecasting, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, precipitation, quantitative ecology, statistical dependence, statistical series, stream flow, Tamino, the bootstrap, time series, water vapor
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## A look at an electricity consumption series using SNCDs for clustering

(Slightly amended with code and data link, 12th January 2019.) Prediction of electrical load demand or, in other words, electrical energy consumption is important for the proper operation of electrical grids, at all scales. RTOs and ISOs forecast demand based … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, consumption, data streams, decentralized electric power generation, dendrogram, divergence measures, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy efficiency, energy utilities, ensembles, evidence, forecasting, grid defection, hierarchical clustering, hydrology, ILSR, information theoretic statistics, local self reliance, Massachusetts, microgrids, NCD, normalized compression divergence, numerical software, open data, prediction, rate of return regulation, Sankey diagram, SNCD, statistical dependence, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, symmetric normalized compression divergence, time series
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## Series, symmetrized Normalized Compressed Divergences and their logit transforms

(Major update on 11th January 2019. Minor update on 16th January 2019.) On comparing things The idea of a calculating a distance between series for various purposes has received scholarly attention for quite some time. The most common application is … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, bridge to somewhere, computation, content-free inference, data science, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, engineering, George Sughihara, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, machine learning, mathematics, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
4 Comments

## What are the odds of net zero?

What’s the Question? A question was posed by a colleague a couple of months ago: What are the odds of a stock closing at the same price it opened? I found the question interesting, because, at first, it appeared to … Continue reading

## `Letter to Lamar Smith’

On Ed Hawkins’ blog. The Committee on Science, Space & Technology of the US House of Representatives conducts regular evidence hearings on various science topics. On Wednesday 29th March, there is a hearing on “Climate science: assumptions, policy implications, and … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anemic data, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Ben Santer, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, Climate Lab Book, climate zombies, dependent data, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorology, MIchael Mann, Our Children's Trust, physics, science, smoothing, statistical dependence, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, time series
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## Energy Consumption with Air Source Heat Pumps and Water Heater

Once nice thing about having a net metered solar PV array is that, with a little diligence, you can figure out how much electricity your household is consuming each day, or at finer resolution if you like (*). Below is … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, clean disruption, CleanTechnica, climate economics, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, efficiency, energy reduction, engineering, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ISO-NE, local self reliance, New England, smart data, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, statistics, time series, Tony Seba, zero carbon
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## “All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box

(Image courtesy of the Damien Garcia.) As a statistician and quant, I’ve thought hard about that oft-cited Boxism. I’m not sure I agree. It’s not that there is such a thing as a perfect model, or correct model, whatever in … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, astronomy, astrophysics, mathematics, model-free forecasting, numerics, perceptions, physical materialism, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, spatial statistics, splines, statistics, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series
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## Just a lil’ bit o’ a drought … Nothing to be alarmed about … (!)

Posted in adaptation, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, drought, environment, fluid dynamics, global warming, greenhouse gases, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorology, quantitative ecology, Spaceship Earth, statistics, time series, water, water vapor, WHOI, zero carbon
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## “Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead” (Dr Gavin Schmidt at REALCLIMATE)

Dr Schmidt is essentially betting that the trend, seen as a random variable, will regress towards the smooth mean. I have a post at Nate Silver’s 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature anomalies based on El … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, changepoint detection, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, oceanography, physics, regression toward the mean, science, statistics, time series
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## Bastardi’s Bust

Famous climate denialist Joe Bastari of WeatherBELL Analytics LLC, formerly of Accuweather.com made a prediction on Arctic ice recovery back in 2010 (when at AccuWeather), and observations have since made his “studies” laughable. I have heard his colleague, Joseph D’Aleo … Continue reading

Posted in Accuweather, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Arctic, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, coasts, ecology, environment, evidence, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, meteorology, NOAA, science denier, shorelines, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the stack of lies, the tragedy of our present civilization, time series
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## “Naïve empiricism and what theory suggests about errors in observed global warming”

A post from one of my favorite statistics-oriented bloggers, Variable Variability, dealing with a subject too casually passed over. See Naïve empiricism and what theory suggests about errors in observed global warming.

## Repaired R code for Markov spatial simulation of hurricane tracks from historical trajectories

(Slight update, 28th June 2020.) I’m currently studying random walk and diffusion processes and their connections with random fields. I’m interested in this because at the core of dynamic linear models, Kalman filters, and state-space methods there is a random … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Arthur Charpentier, atmosphere, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, geophysics, hurricanes, Kalman filter, Kerry Emanuel, Lévy flights, Lorenz, Markov chain random fields, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, MCMC, mesh models, meteorological models, meteorology, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical analysis, numerical software, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, random walk processes, random walks, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, time series
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## A model of an electrical grid: A vision

Many people seem to view the electrical grid of the future being much like the present one. I think a lot about networks, because of my job. And I especially think a lot about network topologies, although primarily concerning the … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, Boston, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, Canettes Blues Band, clean disruption, climate business, climate economics, complex systems, corporate supply chains, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, differential equations, distributed generation, efficiency, EIA, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, extended supply chains, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Kalman filter, kriging, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Lenny Smith, local generation, marginal energy sources, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, mesh models, meteorology, microgrids, networks, New England, New York State, open data, organizational failures, pipelines, planning, prediction markets, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, resiliency, risk, Sankey diagram, smart data, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, stranded assets, supply chains, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics, time series, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wave equations, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
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## Bayesian blocks via PELT in R

The Bayesian blocks algorithm of Scargle, Jackson, Norris, and Chiang has an enthusiastic user community in astrostatistics, in data mining, and among some in machine learning. It is a dynamic programming algorithm (see VanderPlas referenced below) and, so, exhibits optimality … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, astrophysics, Cauchy distribution, changepoint detection, engineering, geophysics, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, oceanography, population biology, population dynamics, Python 3, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, Scargle, spatial statistics, square wave approximation, statistics, stepwise approximation, time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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## “Full-depth Ocean Heat Content” reblog

This is a re-blog of an excellent post at And Then There’s Physics, titled Full-depth OHC or, expanded, “full-depth ocean heat content”. Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, computation, differential equations, ensembles, environment, fluid dynamics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Lorenz, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, science, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## “Catching long tail distribution” (Ted Dunning)

One of the best presentations on what can happen if someone takes a naive approach to network data. It also highlights what is, to my mind, the greatly underappreciated t-distribution, which is typically only used in connection with frequentist Student … Continue reading

## Six cases of models

The previous post included an attempt to explain land surface temperatures as estimated by the BEST project using a dynamic linear model including regressions on both quarterly CO2 concentrations and ocean heat content. The idea was to check the explanatory … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Bayesian, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, dlm package, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, geophysics, Giovanni Petris, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, maths, maximum likelihood, meteorology, model comparison, numerical software, Patrizia Campagnoli, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Sonia Petrone, state-space models, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, SVD, time series
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## 10+ kilowatts (!) from a PV with 29 SunPower panels designed and installed by RevoluSun

(Click on image to see larger figure. Use your browser Back Button to return to blog.)

Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to somewhere, clean disruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, destructive economic development, distributed generation, electricity, electricity markets, fossil fuel divestment, grid defection, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, local generation, microgrids, rate of return regulation, rationality, reasonableness, RevoluSun, Sankey diagram, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, SunPower, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, time series, Tony Seba, zero carbon
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## Clear of all trees

One drawback of solar panels at our home site is a significant stand of conifers to our southwest. (Click image for a larger picture. Use browser Back Button to return to blog.) It’s clear when the trees are casting shadows … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to somewhere, clean disruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, distributed generation, electricity, energy, energy reduction, fossil fuel divestment, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, rationality, reasonableness, Sankey diagram, scattering, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, the energy of the people, the green century, time series, utility company death spiral, zero carbon
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## Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis

See the very interesting discussion at his blog, From the bottom of the heap. It would be nice to see some information theoretic measures on these results, though.

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, ecology, environment, evidence, Gavin Simpson, Generalize Additive Models, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, maths, meteorology, numerical analysis, R, rationality, reasonableness, splines, time series
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## HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP series filtered and estimated with simple RTS model

Happy Vernal Equinox! This post has been updated today with some of the equations which correspond to the models. An assessment of whether or not there was a meaningful slowdown or “hiatus” in global warming, was recently discussed by Tamino … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Bayesian, boosting, bridge to somewhere, cat1, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, complex systems, computation, data science, dynamical systems, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, hiatus, information theoretic statistics, machine learning, maths, meteorology, MIchael Mann, multivariate statistics, physics, prediction, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, regime shifts, sea level rise, time series
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