Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- "The Expert"
- Karl Broman
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- All about Sankey diagrams
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- London Review of Books
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- What If
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Awkward Botany
- Slice Sampling
- American Statistical Association
- Gavin Simpson
- James' Empty Blog
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- NCAR AtmosNews
climate change
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Sea Change Boston
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Earth System Models
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- World Weather Attribution
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Ice and Snow
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Risk and Well-Being
- weather blocking patterns
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: splines
Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests
(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading
Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths
There are many ways of presenting analytical summaries of new series data for which the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. With respect to series describing the COVID-19 pandemic, Tamino has used piecewise linear models. I have mentioned how I prefered … Continue reading
“Lockdown WORKS”
Originally posted on Open Mind:
Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…
Why smooth?
I’ve encountered a number of blog posts this week which seem not to understand the Bias-Variance Tradeoff in regard to Mean-Squared-Error. These arose in connection with smoothing splines, which I was studying in connection with multivariate adaptive regression splines, that … Continue reading
Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Statistical Association, Antarctica, carbon dioxide, climate change, denial, global warming, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, multivariate adaptive regression splines, non-parametric model, science denier, smoothing, splines, statistical dependence
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“All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box
(Image courtesy of the Damien Garcia.) As a statistician and quant, I’ve thought hard about that oft-cited Boxism. I’m not sure I agree. It’s not that there is such a thing as a perfect model, or correct model, whatever in … Continue reading
Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, astronomy, astrophysics, mathematics, model-free forecasting, numerics, perceptions, physical materialism, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, spatial statistics, splines, statistics, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series
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Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis
See the very interesting discussion at his blog, From the bottom of the heap. It would be nice to see some information theoretic measures on these results, though.
Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, ecology, environment, evidence, Gavin Simpson, Generalize Additive Models, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, maths, meteorology, numerical analysis, R, rationality, reasonableness, splines, time series
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ecoquant
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy 