Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- London Review of Books
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Awkward Botany
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Professor David Draper
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Mertonian norms
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Risk and Well-Being
- NCAR AtmosNews
- "The Expert"
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Earle Wilson
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Gavin Simpson
climate change
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Reanalyses.org
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- SolarLove
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Simple models of climate change
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- RealClimate
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- weather blocking patterns
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Risk and Well-Being
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Earth System Models
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: splines
Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests
(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading
Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths
There are many ways of presenting analytical summaries of new series data for which the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. With respect to series describing the COVID-19 pandemic, Tamino has used piecewise linear models. I have mentioned how I prefered … Continue reading
“Lockdown WORKS”
Tamino favors LASSO LOESS and piecewise linear models. I favor splines, especially penalized smoothing splines via the R package pspline, using generalized cross validation to set the smoothing parameter. Tamino looks for breaks in the piecewise linear case to check … Continue reading
Why smooth?
I’ve encountered a number of blog posts this week which seem not to understand the Bias-Variance Tradeoff in regard to Mean-Squared-Error. These arose in connection with smoothing splines, which I was studying in connection with multivariate adaptive regression splines, that … Continue reading
Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Statistical Association, Antarctica, carbon dioxide, climate change, denial, global warming, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, multivariate adaptive regression splines, non-parametric model, science denier, smoothing, splines, statistical dependence
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“All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box
(Image courtesy of the Damien Garcia.) As a statistician and quant, I’ve thought hard about that oft-cited Boxism. I’m not sure I agree. It’s not that there is such a thing as a perfect model, or correct model, whatever in … Continue reading
Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, astronomy, astrophysics, mathematics, model-free forecasting, numerics, perceptions, physical materialism, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, spatial statistics, splines, statistics, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series
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Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis
See the very interesting discussion at his blog, From the bottom of the heap. It would be nice to see some information theoretic measures on these results, though.
Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, ecology, environment, evidence, Gavin Simpson, Generalize Additive Models, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, maths, meteorology, numerical analysis, R, rationality, reasonableness, splines, time series
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ecoquant
