### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Awkward Botany
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Gabriel's staircase
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Label Noise
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Risk and Well-Being
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Gavin Simpson
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- "The Expert"
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Ted Dunning
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- All about Sankey diagrams
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Earle Wilson
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- What If
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Mertonian norms
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- London Review of Books
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- All about models
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.

### climate change

- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- David Appell's early climate science
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- And Then There's Physics
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Social Cost of Carbon
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Ice and Snow
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- World Weather Attribution
- Climate model projections versus observations
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- SolarLove
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Earth System Models
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Reanalyses.org
- Spectra Energy exposed
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- weather blocking patterns
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Simple models of climate change
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: splines

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
Leave a comment

## Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths

There are many ways of presenting analytical summaries of new series data for which the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. With respect to series describing the COVID-19 pandemic, Tamino has used piecewise linear models. I have mentioned how I prefered … Continue reading

## “Lockdown WORKS”

Originally posted on Open Mind:

Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…

## Why smooth?

I’ve encountered a number of blog posts this week which seem not to understand the Bias-Variance Tradeoff in regard to Mean-Squared-Error. These arose in connection with smoothing splines, which I was studying in connection with multivariate adaptive regression splines, that … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Statistical Association, Antarctica, carbon dioxide, climate change, denial, global warming, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, multivariate adaptive regression splines, non-parametric model, science denier, smoothing, splines, statistical dependence
1 Comment

## “All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box

(Image courtesy of the Damien Garcia.) As a statistician and quant, I’ve thought hard about that oft-cited Boxism. I’m not sure I agree. It’s not that there is such a thing as a perfect model, or correct model, whatever in … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, astronomy, astrophysics, mathematics, model-free forecasting, numerics, perceptions, physical materialism, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, spatial statistics, splines, statistics, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series
Leave a comment

## Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis

See the very interesting discussion at his blog, From the bottom of the heap. It would be nice to see some information theoretic measures on these results, though.

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, ecology, environment, evidence, Gavin Simpson, Generalize Additive Models, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, maths, meteorology, numerical analysis, R, rationality, reasonableness, splines, time series
Leave a comment