### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Slice Sampling
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Label Noise
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- What If
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Awkward Botany
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Number Cruncher Politics
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Ted Dunning
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Mertonian norms
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- All about models
- American Statistical Association
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series

### climate change

- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Sea Change Boston
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Climate model projections versus observations
- David Appell's early climate science
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Skeptical Science
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- RealClimate
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- SolarLove
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Earth System Models
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Risk and Well-Being

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: splines

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths

There are many ways of presenting analytical summaries of new series data for which the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. With respect to series describing the COVID-19 pandemic, Tamino has used piecewise linear models. I have mentioned how I prefered … Continue reading

## “Lockdown WORKS”

Originally posted on Open Mind:

Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…

## Why smooth?

I’ve encountered a number of blog posts this week which seem not to understand the Bias-Variance Tradeoff in regard to Mean-Squared-Error. These arose in connection with smoothing splines, which I was studying in connection with multivariate adaptive regression splines, that … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Statistical Association, Antarctica, carbon dioxide, climate change, denial, global warming, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, multivariate adaptive regression splines, non-parametric model, science denier, smoothing, splines, statistical dependence
1 Comment

## “All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box

(Image courtesy of the Damien Garcia.) As a statistician and quant, I’ve thought hard about that oft-cited Boxism. I’m not sure I agree. It’s not that there is such a thing as a perfect model, or correct model, whatever in … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, astronomy, astrophysics, mathematics, model-free forecasting, numerics, perceptions, physical materialism, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, spatial statistics, splines, statistics, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series
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## Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis

See the very interesting discussion at his blog, From the bottom of the heap. It would be nice to see some information theoretic measures on these results, though.

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, ecology, environment, evidence, Gavin Simpson, Generalize Additive Models, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, maths, meteorology, numerical analysis, R, rationality, reasonableness, splines, time series
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