### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- "The Expert"
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Ted Dunning
- Label Noise
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Professor David Draper
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Gavin Simpson
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Risk and Well-Being
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Slice Sampling
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- London Review of Books
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Mertonian norms
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- James' Empty Blog
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- What If
- Gabriel's staircase

### climate change

- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- David Appell's early climate science
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Spectra Energy exposed
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- And Then There's Physics
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Climate model projections versus observations
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- weather blocking patterns
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: statistical regression

## “Lockdown WORKS”

Originally posted on Open Mind:

Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot) As bad as that news is,…

## What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth

This is the newly updated map of COVID-19 cases in the United States, updated, presumably, because of the new emphasis upon testing: How do we know this is the recent of recent testing? Look at the map of active cases: … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, climate denial, corruption, data science, data visualization, Donald Trump, dump Trump, epidemiology, experimental science, exponential growth, forecasting, Kalman filter, model-free forecasting, nonlinear systems, open data, penalized spline regression, population dynamics, sampling algorithms, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, the stack of lies
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## “Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications”

via Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications From Professor Ewan Cameron at his Another Astrostatistics Blog.

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, astronomy, astrostatistics, causal inference, causation, counterfactuals, epidemiology, experimental design, experimental science, multivariate statistics, prediction, propensity scoring, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, reproducible research, rhetorical mathematics, rhetorical science, rhetorical statistics, science, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistics
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## Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app

Updated, 20th October 2020 This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo
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## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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