667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: NCA

Ray Pierrehumbert on the new U.S.-China climate deal

Posted on 18 November 2014 by ecoquant

Professor Pierrehumbert offers his thoughts in Slate. He’s the author of Principles of Planetary Climate which is, as far as I’m concerned, the definitive climate book.

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Carbon Tax, chemistry, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, conservation, consumption, demand-side solutions, differential equations, ecology, economics, education, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, forecasting, geoengineering, geophysics, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, methane, NCA, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, scientific publishing, solar power, statistics, wind power | Tagged climate book | Leave a comment

Observed change: National Climate Assessment

Posted on 5 November 2014 by ecoquant

See NOAA’s “observed change”.

Posted in citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, maths, meteorology, NCA, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Mertonian norms
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Slice Sampling
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Label Noise
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Professor David Draper
    • All about models
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Ted Dunning
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • "The Expert"
    • Awkward Botany
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
  • climate change

    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Ice and Snow
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Social Cost of Carbon
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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