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Category Archives: NCA

Ray Pierrehumbert on the new U.S.-China climate deal

Posted on 18 November 2014 by ecoquant

Professor Pierrehumbert offers his thoughts in Slate. He’s the author of Principles of Planetary Climate which is, as far as I’m concerned, the definitive climate book.

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Carbon Tax, chemistry, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, conservation, consumption, demand-side solutions, differential equations, ecology, economics, education, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, forecasting, geoengineering, geophysics, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, methane, NCA, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, scientific publishing, solar power, statistics, wind power | Tagged climate book | Leave a comment

Observed change: National Climate Assessment

Posted on 5 November 2014 by ecoquant

See NOAA’s “observed change”.

Posted in citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, maths, meteorology, NCA, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Karl Broman
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • American Statistical Association
    • Mertonian norms
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • What If
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Ted Dunning
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Slice Sampling
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Awkward Botany
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • "The Expert"
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
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    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Professor David Draper
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
  • climate change

    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Skeptical Science
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • RealClimate
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Earth System Models
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Ice and Snow
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Sea Change Boston
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Simple models of climate change
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter Arctic Ice: The Saga Continues
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