This is the kind of thing that’s expected of a +3C world, although the idea of it being a threshold phenomenon is a bit unrealistic. So, it’s expected that these sinks might, overall, start releasing their sequestered Carbon, one here one year, another there another year. But if the biggest sinks start releasing theirs first, well, this is one of the Climate Surprises the IPCC and the U.S. National Climate Change assessment talk about. And they are not at all good.
Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Gabriel's staircase
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Professor David Draper
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Ted Dunning
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- What If
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- "The Expert"
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- London Review of Books
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Awkward Botany
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- All about models
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Number Cruncher Politics
- NCAR AtmosNews
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
climate change
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- RealClimate
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Sea Change Boston
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- weather blocking patterns
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Climate model projections versus observations
Archives
Jan Galkowski
ecoquant
Yes, but there is a question of Carbon budget. The accounting for CO2 sources is pretty good. If there’s an excess coming into atmosphere not accounted for by ocean outgassing, or known land/biosphere emissions, or fossil fuels, or boosted northern forest growth (and decay), or permafrost melt, then it’s necessary to look for it. Moreover, it is possible to both discriminate between these sources by isotopic signature and close (airborne) monitoring.
One year does not a pattern make