Category: model-free forecasting

• Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths with uncertainties

  American Statistical Association . Andrew Harvey . anomaly detection . count data regression . COVID-19 . dependent data . dlm package . Durbin and Koopman . dynamic linear models . epidemiology . filtering . forecasting . Kalman filter . LaTeX . model-free forecasting . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . numerical algorithms . numerical linear algebra . population biology . population dynamics . prediction . R . R statistical programming language . regression . statistical learning . stochastic algorithms

  Oct 30.2020
• Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

  bridge to somewhere . Calculus . dependent data . dynamic generalized linear models . dynamical systems . ensemble methods . ensemble models . filtering . forecasting . hierarchical clustering . linear regression . model-free forecasting . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . non-mechanistic modeling . non-parametric model . non-parametric statistics . numerical algorithms . prediction . R statistical programming language . random forests . regression . sampling . splines . statistical learning . statistical series . statistics . time derivatives . time series

  Jun 27.2020
• What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Statistical Association . anti-intellectualism . anti-science . climate denial . corruption . data science . data visualization . Donald Trump . dump Trump . epidemiology . experimental science . exponential growth . forecasting . Kalman filter . model-free forecasting . nonlinear systems . open data . penalized spline regression . population dynamics . sampling algorithms . statistical ecology . statistical models . statistical regression . statistical series . statistics . sustainability . the right to know . the stack of lies

  Mar 14.2020
• A response to a post on RealClimate

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Bayesian . climate change . ecology . Ecology Action . environment . evidence . experimental design . Frequentist . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . machine learning . model comparison . model-free forecasting . multivariate statistics . science . science denier . statistical series . statistics . time series

  Jun 26.2019
• Stream flow and P-splines: Using built-in estimates for smoothing

  American Statistical Association . citizen data . citizen science . Clausius-Clapeyron equation . Commonwealth of Massachusetts . cross-validation . data science . dependent data . descriptive statistics . dynamic linear models . empirical likelihood . environment . flooding . floods . Grant Foster . hydrology . likelihood-free . meteorological models . model-free forecasting . non-mechanistic modeling . non-parametric . non-parametric model . non-parametric statistics . numerical algorithms . precipitation . quantitative ecology . statistical dependence . statistical series . stream flow . Tamino . the bootstrap . time series . water vapor

  Jan 28.2019
• Series, symmetrized Normalized Compressed Divergences and their logit transforms

  Akaike Information Criterion . bridge to somewhere . computation . content-free inference . data science . descriptive statistics . divergence measures . engineering . George Sughihara . information theoretic statistics . likelihood-free . machine learning . mathematics . model comparison . model-free forecasting . multivariate statistics . non-mechanistic modeling . non-parametric statistics . numerical algorithms . statistics . theoretical physics . thermodynamics . time series

  Jan 3.2019
• climate model democracy

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Anthropocene . attribution . Bayesian model averaging . Bloomberg . citizen science . climate . climate business . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate education . climate justice . Climate Lab Book . climate models . coastal communities . coastal investment risks . complex systems . differential equations . disruption . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . ecology . emergent organization . ensemble methods . ensemble models . ensembles . Eric Rignot . evidence . fear uncertainty and doubt . FEMA . forecasting . free flow of labor . global warming . greenhouse gases . greenwashing . Humans have a lot to answer for . Hyper Anthropocene . Jennifer Francis . Joe Romm . Kevin Anderson . Lévy flights . LBNL . leaving fossil fuels in the ground . liberal climate deniers . mathematics . mathematics education . model-free forecasting . multivariate adaptive regression splines . National Center for Atmospheric Research . obfuscating data . oceanography . open source scientific software . optimization . perceptrons . philosophy of science . phytoplankton

  Jul 5.2018
• Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science

  American Statistical Association . Andrew Parnell . anomaly detection . Anthropocene . Bayesian . Bayesian model averaging . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . climate change . David Spiegelhalter . dependent data . Dublin . GISTEMP . global warming . Grant Foster . HadCRUT4 . hiatus . Hyper Anthropocene . JAGS . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . Martyn Plummer . Mathematics and Climate Research Network . MCMC . model-free forecasting . Niamh Cahill . Significance . statistics . Stefan Rahmstorf . Tamino

  Feb 14.2018
• What are the odds of net zero?

  dependent data . evidence . financial series . investing . investments . model-free forecasting . numerical algorithms . state-space models . statistics . time series . trading

  Jan 1.2018
• Eli on “Tom [Karl]’s trick and experimental design“

  American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . anomaly detection . climate . climate change . climate data . data science . evidence . experimental design . generalized linear mixed models . GISTEMP . GLMMs . global warming . model comparison . model-free forecasting . reblog . sampling . sampling networks

  Nov 11.2017
• Statements by the Ecological Society of America on the proposed U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement, and on Climate Change

  adaptation . American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Statistical Association . Anthropocene . argoecology . Carl Safina . climate change . climate disruption . complex systems . ecological services . ecology . Ecology Action . environment . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . marine biology . mesh models . model-free forecasting . population biology . population dynamics . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . science . Science magazine . Spaceship Earth . sustainability . Takens embedding theorem . the tragedy of our present civilization . the value of financial assets . tragedy of the horizon . Wordpress . zero carbon

  Jun 15.2017
• `Evidence of a decline in electricity use by U.S. households’ (Prof Lucas Davis, U.C. Berkeley)

  American Solar Energy Society . American Statistical Association . anomaly detection . Bloomberg New Energy Finance . BNEF . bridge to somewhere . convergent cross-mapping . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . dependent data . efficiency . EIA . electricity . electricity markets . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . evidence . green tech . local self reliance . Lucas Davis . marginal energy sources . Massachusetts Clean Energy Center . model-free forecasting . multivariate statistics . public utility commissions . rate of return regulation . statistics . Takens embedding theorem

  May 8.2017
• Liang, information flows, causation, and convergent cross-mapping

  Akaike Information Criterion . American Association for the Advancement of Science . Anthropocene . attribution . carbon dioxide . climate . climate change . climate disruption . complex systems . convergent cross-mapping . ecology . Egbert van Nes . Ethan Deyle . Floris Takens . George Sughihara . global warming . Hao Ye . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . Lenny Smith . model-free forecasting . nonlinear systems . physics . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . theoretical physics . Timothy Lenton . Victor Brovkin

  May 2.2017
• Just because the data lies sometimes doesn’t mean it’s okay to censor it

  Akaike Information Criterion . American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Anthropocene . Bayes . Bayesian . climate . climate change . climate models . data science . dynamical systems . ecology . Eli Rabett . environment . Ethan Deyle . George Sughihara . Hao Ye . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . IPCC . Kalman filter . kriging . Lenny Smith . maximum likelihood . model comparison . model-free forecasting . physics . quantitative ecology . random walk processes . random walks . science . smart data . state-space models . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . the right to know . Timothy Lenton . Victor Brovkin

  May 1.2017
• “Hurricanes, Sea Level, and Baloney” (from Tamino)

  American Meteorological Association . AMETSOC . climate . climate change . climate disruption . denial . environment . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . meteorological models . meteorology . model-free forecasting . open data . science denier

  Oct 28.2016
• Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION: A Review

  citizen data . citizen science . citizenship . civilization . compassion . complex systems . criminal justice . Daniel Kahneman . data science . deep recurrent neural networks . destructive economic development . economics . education . engineering . ethics . Google . ignorance . Joseph Schumpeter . life purpose . machine learning . Mathbabe . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . model comparison . model-free forecasting . numerical analysis . numerical software . open data . optimization . organizational failures . planning . politics . prediction . prediction markets . privacy . rationality . reason . reasonableness . risk . silly tech devices . smart data . sociology . Techno Utopias . testing . the value of financial assets . transparency

  Oct 23.2016
• “All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box

  abstraction . American Association for the Advancement of Science . astronomy . astrophysics . mathematics . model-free forecasting . numerics . perceptions . physical materialism . physics . rationality . reason . reasonableness . science . spatial statistics . splines . statistics . the right to know . theoretical physics . time series

  Oct 17.2016
• Carbon Sinks in Crisis — It Looks Like the World’s Largest Rainforest is Starting to Bleed Greenhouse Gasses

  bifurcations . carbon dioxide . carbon dioxide sequestration . changepoint detection . climate . climate change . climate disruption . disruption . dynamical systems . environment . exponential growth . fossil fuels . geophysics . global warming . IPCC . Lévy flights . Lorenz . Minsky moment . model-free forecasting . physics . population biology . population dynamics . Principles of Planetary Climate . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . random walk processes . Ray Pierrehumbert . reason . reasonableness . regime shifts . risk . Stefan Rahmstorf . the right to be and act stupid . the tragedy of our present civilization . UU Humanists

  Aug 16.2016
• Repaired R code for Markov spatial simulation of hurricane tracks from historical trajectories

  American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Arthur Charpentier . atmosphere . diffusion . diffusion processes . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . environment . geophysics . hurricanes . Kalman filter . Kerry Emanuel . Lévy flights . Lorenz . Markov chain random fields . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . MCMC . mesh models . meteorological models . meteorology . model-free forecasting . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . numerical analysis . numerical software . oceanography . open data . open source scientific software . physics . random walk processes . random walks . science . spatial statistics . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . time series

  Aug 11.2016
• “Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of weather and climate models”

  biology . climate models . complex systems . convergent cross-mapping . data science . dynamical systems . ecology . Ethan Deyle . Floris Takens . George Sughihara . Hao Ye . likelihood-free . Lorenz . mathematics . meteorological models . model-free forecasting . physics . population biology . population dynamics . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . Scripps Institution of Oceanography . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . Takens embedding theorem . time series . Victor Brovkin

  Jul 24.2016