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Alice Bell’s “A very short history of climate change research”

Posted on 10 August 2015 by ecoquant

“A very short history of climate change research“, by Alice Bell. The story of scientists discovering climate change is longer than many of us tend to imagine. We’ve had a sense that what humans do might effect the climate since … Continue reading →

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, biology, carbon dioxide, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, James Hansen, meteorology, Neill deGrasse Tyson, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, spatial statistics, statistics, sustainability, temporal myopia, UNFCCC, WHOI | Tagged U.S. Clean Power Plan, U.S. Constitution | Leave a comment
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    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • All about models
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • American Statistical Association
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
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  • climate change

    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Reanalyses.org
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Ice and Snow
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • weather blocking patterns
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
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    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
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    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • And Then There's Physics
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    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Warming slowdown discussion
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    • SolarLove
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    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
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    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
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    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
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  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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