667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Tag Archives: U.S. Constitution

Alice Bell’s “A very short history of climate change research”

Posted on 10 August 2015 by ecoquant

“A very short history of climate change research“, by Alice Bell. The story of scientists discovering climate change is longer than many of us tend to imagine. We’ve had a sense that what humans do might effect the climate since … Continue reading →

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, biology, carbon dioxide, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, James Hansen, meteorology, Neill deGrasse Tyson, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, spatial statistics, statistics, sustainability, temporal myopia, UNFCCC, WHOI | Tagged U.S. Clean Power Plan, U.S. Constitution | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Mertonian norms
    • Awkward Botany
    • London Review of Books
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Professor David Draper
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Gabriel's staircase
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Slice Sampling
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
  • climate change

    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • weather blocking patterns
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • RealClimate
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Reanalyses.org
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • Ice and Snow
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • Earth System Models
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
  • Archives

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    • My favorite presentation on climate disruption these days 23 November 2021
    • Photo of the week: Repeatedly distressed Mnium hornum 19 November 2021
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    • The Truth about Sea Level Rise 2 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break: Pink Floyd, David Bowie, Comfortably Numb 2 November 2021
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    • “They are liars … You can have the best capitalism in the world, but if people are dead, they’re dead. It’s over.” 1 November 2021
    • “I have given up. I am here to talk about the science.” 1 November 2021
    • “How should children learn about climate change?” 30 October 2021
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    • Dr Gilbz 20 October 2021
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    • An Open Letter from U.S. Scientists Imploring President Biden to End the Fossil Fuel Era 9 October 2021
    • “It’s the exact opposite.” 7 October 2021
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    • Vineyard Sound, Rhode Island Sound, August, 2021 17 September 2021
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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