Category Archives: spatial statistics

“Bigger Isn’t Always Better When It Comes to Data”: Barry Nussbaum

The President’s Corner in the May 2017 issue of Amstat News, the monthly newsletter of the American Statistical Association (“ASA”), features the interesting exposition by environmental statistician and President of the ASA, Barry Nussbaum, called “Bigger isn’t always better when … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, emissions, sampling, sampling without replacement, smoothing, spatial statistics, statistics | Leave a comment

Why scientific measurements need to be adjusted

There is an excellent piece in Ars Technica about why scientific measurements need to be adjusted, and the implications of this for climate data. It is written by Scott K Johnson and is called “Thorough, not thoroughly fabricated: The truth … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, Canettes Blues Band, citizen data, climate data, data science, environment, evidence, geophysics, GISTEMP, HadCRUT4, mathematics education, meteorological models, obfuscating data, open data, physics, science, spatial statistics, Tamino, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, Variable Variability | Leave a comment

“All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box

(Image courtesy of the Damien Garcia.) As a statistician and quant, I’ve thought hard about that oft-cited Boxism. I’m not sure I agree. It’s not that there is such a thing as a perfect model, or correct model, whatever in … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, astronomy, astrophysics, mathematics, model-free forecasting, numerics, perceptions, physical materialism, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, spatial statistics, splines, statistics, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series | Leave a comment

“Getting our heads out of the sand: The facts about sea level rise” (Robert Young)

If current luck holds, North Carolina may well escape the 2013 hurricane season without the widespread damage that has so frequently plagued the fragile coastal region in recent years. Unfortunately, this brief respite is almost certainly only that — a … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, Boston, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate economics, coastal communities, coasts, ecology, environment, evidence, global warming, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, living shorelines, Massachusetts, National Park Service, New England, nor'easters, oceanography, quantitative ecology, risk, Robert Young, science, sea level rise, shorelines, spatial statistics, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets | 1 Comment

Repaired R code for Markov spatial simulation of hurricane tracks from historical trajectories

I’m currently studying random walk and diffusion processes and their connections with random fields. I’m interested in this because at the core of dynamic linear models, Kalman filters, and state-space methods there is a random walk in a parameter space. … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Arthur Charpentier, atmosphere, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, geophysics, hurricanes, Kalman filter, Kerry Emanuel, Lévy flights, Lorenz, Markov chain random fields, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, MCMC, mesh models, meteorological models, meteorology, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical analysis, numerical software, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, random walk processes, random walks, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, time series | Leave a comment

Energy Democracy

I’ve actually written about this before, but John Farrell of the ILSR (“Institute for Local Self-Reliance” a famous Emerson essay, by the way) presents an up-to-date synthesis of developments, incorporating policy as well as Tony Seba-like, Hermann Scheer-like, and Michael … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, citizenship, clean disruption, CleanTechnica, climate economics, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, distributed generation, economics, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, evidence, extended supply chains, feed-in tariff, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, ILSR, investment in wind and solar energy, John Farrell, Joseph Schumpeter, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, life purpose, local generation, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Michael Osborne, microgrids, open data, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, risk, Sankey diagram, solar democracy, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, statistics, stranded assets, sustainability, temporal myopia, the energy of the people, the green century, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | 1 Comment

A model of an electrical grid: A vision

Many people seem to view the electrical grid of the future being much like the present one. I think a lot about networks, because of my job. And I especially think a lot about network topologies, although primarily concerning the … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, Boston, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, Canettes Blues Band, clean disruption, climate business, climate economics, complex systems, corporate supply chains, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, differential equations, distributed generation, efficiency, EIA, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, extended supply chains, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Kalman filter, kriging, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Lenny Smith, local generation, marginal energy sources, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, mesh models, meteorology, microgrids, networks, New England, New York State, open data, organizational failures, pipelines, planning, prediction markets, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, resiliency, risk, Sankey diagram, smart data, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, stranded assets, supply chains, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics, time series, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wave equations, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Bayesian blocks via PELT in R

The Bayesian blocks algorithm of Scargle, Jackson, Norris, and Chiang has an enthusiastic user community in astrostatistics, in data mining, and among some in machine learning. It is a dynamic programming algorithm (see VanderPlas referenced below) and, so, exhibits optimality … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, astrophysics, Cauchy distribution, changepoint detection, engineering, geophysics, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, oceanography, population biology, population dynamics, Python 3, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, Scargle, spatial statistics, square wave approximation, statistics, stepwise approximation, time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution | Leave a comment

David Suzuki on Agroecology

See Feeding humanity in a warming world. Dr Suzuki links University of California, Berkeley, Professor Miguel Altieri’s “Principles and strategies for designing sustainable farming systems“.

Posted in adaptation, agriculture, Anthropocene, argoecology, Buckminster Fuller, carbon dioxide sequestration, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, David Suzuki, demand-side solutions, drought, ecology, environment, Epcot, extended supply chains, food, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Life Cycle Assessment, local generation, Miguel Altieri, optimization, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, resiliency, Sankey diagram, sociology, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics | Leave a comment

“Solar power is contagious. These maps show how it spreads.” (from Vox)

Brad Plumer at Vox writes on take-up patterns of rooftop solar based upon a large dataset from SolarCity. The full article is available at the SolarCity site. Mr Plumer combines it with a report on other studies of solar adoption … Continue reading

Posted in Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, business, clean disruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, diffusion, diffusion processes, disruption, distributed generation, economics, electricity markets, energy, energy utilities, exponential growth, grid defection, investment in wind and solar energy, local generation, Peter Diggle, point pattern analysis, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, regulatory capture, sociology, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastics, the energy of the people, the green century, utility company death spiral, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Southern New England Meteorology Conference, 24th October 2015

I attending the 2015 edition of the Southern New England Meteorology Conference in Milton, MA, near the Blue Hill, and its Blue Hill Climatological Observatory, of which I am a member as we as of the American Meteorological Society. I … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, capricious gods, climate, Dan Satterfield, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, floods, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, mesh models, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, probability, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, time series | 1 Comment

On differential localization of tumors using relative concentrations of ctDNA. Part 1.

Like most mammalian tissue, tumors often produce shards of DNA as a byproduct of cell death and fracture. This circulating tumor DNA is being studied as a means of detecting tumors or their resurgence after treatment. (See also a Q&A … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, cardiovascular system, diffusion, dynamic linear models, eigenanalysis, engineering, forecasting, mathematics, maths, medicine, networks, prediction, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, wave equations | 3 Comments

How nice it is that Nature and probability bend to developers whims!

As I have mentioned before, it’s so nice that Nature and probability bend to the whims of property developers and their Town Fathers, with the willing participation of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). If you had property at risk … Continue reading

Posted in capricious gods, chance, citizenship, climate data, conservation, denial, ecology, engineering, environment, ethics, games of chance, ignorance, living shorelines, mathematics, meteorology, obfuscating data, planning, politics, precipitation, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, risk, spatial statistics, University Station, Westwood | 1 Comment

Incredible Rainfall In South Carolina, and Yes Climate Played A Role – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Make no mistake, this was a flood event unlike any other in South Carolina and while Hurricane Joaquin never hit the coast, it holds a smoking gun. This flood was the result of several factors, an … Source: Incredible Rainfall … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, Dan Satterfield, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, IPCC, James Hansen, maths, meteorology, mitigation, NOAA, oceanography, physics, prediction, Principles of Planetary Climate, probability, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, sustainability, Tamino, the right to know, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Source: Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Posted in bifurcations, capricious gods, chance, climate change, Dan Satterfield, ensembles, ENSO, games of chance, maths, meteorology, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, precipitation, prediction, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, spatial statistics | Leave a comment

“Natural Gas Pipeline Replacement Programs Reduce Methane Leaks and Improve Consumer Safety”

Natural Gas Pipeline Replacement Programs Reduce Methane Leaks and Improve Consumer Safety Morgan E. Gallagher†‡, Adrian Down§, Robert C. Ackley∥, Kaiguang Zhao⊥, Nathan Phillips#, and Robert B. Jackson*†∇ † School of Earth, Energy, and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, citizenship, climate, climate change, climate disruption, consumption, economics, energy utilities, environment, fossil fuels, fracking, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, methane, mitigation, natural gas, pipelines, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, sociology, spatial statistics, the right to know | Leave a comment

Leaks in Westwood: Natural Gas — a bridge to nowhere

These are ongoing leaks of natural gas in the Westwood area. They are reported, as required by law, by Eversource, the local utility, to Massachusetts government authorities, along with an indication of Eversource’s estimate of the severity of the leak. … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, ecology, energy reduction, energy utilities, environment, fossil fuels, fracking, global warming, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, methane, natural gas, open data, pipelines, politics, public utility commissions, PUCs, rationality, reasonableness, risk, spatial statistics, sustainability, the right to know, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Your future: Antarctica, in detail

Climate and geophysical accuracy demands fine modeling grids, and very large supercomputers. The best and biggest supercomputers have not been available for climate work, until recently. Watch how results differ if fine meshes and big supercomputers are used. Why haven’t … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctica, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, disingenuity, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, IPCC, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL, living shorelines, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, mesh models, meteorology, multivariate statistics, numerical software, optimization, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, supercomputers, temporal myopia, the right to know, thermodynamics, time series, University of California Berkeley, WAIS | Leave a comment

Alice Bell’s “A very short history of climate change research”

“A very short history of climate change research“, by Alice Bell. The story of scientists discovering climate change is longer than many of us tend to imagine. We’ve had a sense that what humans do might effect the climate since … Continue reading

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, biology, carbon dioxide, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, James Hansen, meteorology, Neill deGrasse Tyson, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, spatial statistics, statistics, sustainability, temporal myopia, UNFCCC, WHOI | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Thank You

Originally posted on Open Mind:
To all the readers who make this blog worth writing: Thank you. Thank you for sharing my work. One of the things that makes me proud is that often my blog posts are used as…

Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency | Leave a comment

“NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’” (Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate)

NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’.

Posted in climate, climate change, climate disruption, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, IPCC, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, physics, reproducible research, science, spatial statistics, time series | Leave a comment

Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

Posted in Bayesian, biology, carbon dioxide, chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, denial, ecology, education, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, history, IPCC, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, obfuscating data, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, temporal myopia, time series | Leave a comment

“NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’” (from Gavin at REALCLIMATE)

NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’. No doubt there’ll be, as Dr Schmidt says, a howl of protests that the data are “being manipulated”. There’s more discussion by Professor Mann. But, more to the point, it looks like we’re … Continue reading

Posted in chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, energy, ensembles, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastics, temporal myopia, time series | 2 Comments

“Storm-proven forecasting gets yearlong trial”

Storm-studying scientists have made their next-generation forecasting system available online so the wider weather community can put it to the test. After using the real-time system during short-lived field research campaigns, developers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) … Continue reading

Posted in citizen science, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, open data, physics, precipitation, science, science education, scientific publishing, spatial statistics, statistics | Leave a comment

Twelvefold acceleration in Antarctic shelf ice loss over two decades

The story of Antarctic ice shelf melt continues to develop. A new report measures ice loss over the entire two Antarctic continents, finding a twelvefold acceleration in ice loss comparing the interval 2003-2012 to the interval 1994-2003. This is from … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctica, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, environment, geophysics, oceanography, physics, rationality, science, sea level rise, spatial statistics, statistics, WAIS, WHOI | Leave a comment