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Category Archives: Josiah Willard Gibbs

“The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” (Sean Carroll, and collaborators)

Posted on 11 August 2015 by ecoquant

http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2015/08/11/the-bayesian-second-law-of-thermodynamics/ See also.

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, bifurcations, Boltzmann, capricious gods, dynamical systems, ensembles, games of chance, Gibbs Sampling, information theoretic statistics, Josiah Willard Gibbs, mathematics, maths, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, thermodynamics, Wordpress | Leave a comment
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    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
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    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • All about models
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    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
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    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
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    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
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    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
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    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
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    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
  • climate change

    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
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    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
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    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
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    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
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    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Earth System Models
    • SolarLove
    • weather blocking patterns
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    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Reanalyses.org
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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