667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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Category Archives: Josiah Willard Gibbs

“The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” (Sean Carroll, and collaborators)

Posted on 11 August 2015 by ecoquant

http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2015/08/11/the-bayesian-second-law-of-thermodynamics/ See also.

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, bifurcations, Boltzmann, capricious gods, dynamical systems, ensembles, games of chance, Gibbs Sampling, information theoretic statistics, Josiah Willard Gibbs, mathematics, maths, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, thermodynamics, Wordpress | Leave a comment
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    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
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    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
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    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
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    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
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    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
  • climate change

    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Skeptical Science
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • weather blocking patterns
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • World Weather Attribution
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Ice and Snow
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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