### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- American Statistical Association
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Risk and Well-Being
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- London Review of Books
- James' Empty Blog
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- What If
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Gavin Simpson
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book

### climate change

- Jacobson WWS literature index
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- MIT's Climate Primer
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Risk and Well-Being
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- The Sunlight Economy
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Reanalyses.org
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- SolarLove
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: ensembles

## A look at an electricity consumption series using SNCDs for clustering

(Slightly amended with code and data link, 12th January 2019.) Prediction of electrical load demand or, in other words, electrical energy consumption is important for the proper operation of electrical grids, at all scales. RTOs and ISOs forecast demand based … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, consumption, data streams, decentralized electric power generation, dendrogram, divergence measures, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy efficiency, energy utilities, ensembles, evidence, forecasting, grid defection, hierarchical clustering, hydrology, ILSR, information theoretic statistics, local self reliance, Massachusetts, microgrids, NCD, normalized compression divergence, numerical software, open data, prediction, rate of return regulation, Sankey diagram, SNCD, statistical dependence, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, symmetric normalized compression divergence, time series
2 Comments

## climate model democracy

“One of the most interesting things about the MIP ensembles is that the mean of all the models generally has higher skill than any individual model.” We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models are created equal, that … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, attribution, Bayesian model averaging, Bloomberg, citizen science, climate, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, Climate Lab Book, climate models, coastal communities, coastal investment risks, complex systems, differential equations, disruption, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecology, emergent organization, ensemble methods, ensemble models, ensembles, Eric Rignot, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, FEMA, forecasting, free flow of labor, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, Jennifer Francis, Joe Romm, Kevin Anderson, Lévy flights, LBNL, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, mathematics, mathematics education, model-free forecasting, multivariate adaptive regression splines, National Center for Atmospheric Research, obfuscating data, oceanography, open source scientific software, optimization, perceptrons, philosophy of science, phytoplankton
Leave a comment

## “Full-depth Ocean Heat Content” reblog

This is a re-blog of an excellent post at And Then There’s Physics, titled Full-depth OHC or, expanded, “full-depth ocean heat content”. Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, computation, differential equations, ensembles, environment, fluid dynamics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Lorenz, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, science, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
Leave a comment

## high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

If attempting to simulate from a multivariate standard normal distribution in a large dimension, when starting from the mode of the target, i.e., its mean γ, leaving the mode γis extremely unlikely, given the huge drop between the value of the density at the mode γ and at likely realisations Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, boosting, chance, Christian Robert, computation, ensembles, Gibbs Sampling, James Spall, Jerome Friedman, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, optimization, reasonableness, Robert Schapire, SPSA, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Yoav Freund
Leave a comment

## November Hottest Ever, and Christmas Likely To bring Record Warmth in The East (Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal; AGU Blogosphere)

The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week,… (Click on image for larger map, … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, capricious gods, climate, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, physics, science, the right to know, wave equations
Leave a comment

## Thoughts on “Regime Shift?”

John Baez at The Azimuth Project opened a discussion on the recent paper by Reid, et al Philip C. Reid et al, Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift on the Earth’s climate and systems, Global Change Biology, 2015. I … Continue reading

## Southern New England Meteorology Conference, 24th October 2015

I attending the 2015 edition of the Southern New England Meteorology Conference in Milton, MA, near the Blue Hill, and its Blue Hill Climatological Observatory, of which I am a member as we as of the American Meteorological Society. I … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, capricious gods, climate, Dan Satterfield, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, floods, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, mesh models, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, probability, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, time series
1 Comment

## Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Source: Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

## Your future: Antarctica, in detail

Climate and geophysical accuracy demands fine modeling grids, and very large supercomputers. The best and biggest supercomputers have not been available for climate work, until recently. Watch how results differ if fine meshes and big supercomputers are used. Why haven’t … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctica, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, disingenuity, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, IPCC, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL, living shorelines, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, mesh models, meteorology, multivariate statistics, numerical software, optimization, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, supercomputers, temporal myopia, the right to know, thermodynamics, time series, University of California Berkeley, WAIS
Leave a comment

## “The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” (Sean Carroll, and collaborators)

http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2015/08/11/the-bayesian-second-law-of-thermodynamics/ See also.

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, bifurcations, Boltzmann, capricious gods, dynamical systems, ensembles, games of chance, Gibbs Sampling, information theoretic statistics, Josiah Willard Gibbs, mathematics, maths, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, thermodynamics, Wordpress
Leave a comment

## New Paper Shows Global Climate Model Errors are Significantly Less Than Thought (Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal)

New Paper Shows Global Climate Model Errors are Significantly Less Than Thought – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere. The paper is here, unfortunately behind a paywall. I wonder if they looked at the temperature distributions’ second moments? … Continue reading

Posted in Arctic, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, differential equations, diffusion processes, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, physics, prediction, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, Tamino, time series
Leave a comment

## Thank You

Originally posted on Open Mind:

To all the readers who make this blog worth writing: Thank you. Thank you for sharing my work. One of the things that makes me proud is that often my blog posts are used as…

Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency
Leave a comment

## “Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky” – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

## ‘Weather by Icon’ Is A Bad Way To Get an Accurate Forecast – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

'Weather by Icon' Is A Bad Way To Get an Accurate Forecast – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

## Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

Posted in Bayesian, biology, carbon dioxide, chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, denial, ecology, education, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, history, IPCC, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, obfuscating data, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, temporal myopia, time series
Leave a comment

## “NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’” (from Gavin at REALCLIMATE)

NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’. No doubt there’ll be, as Dr Schmidt says, a howl of protests that the data are “being manipulated”. There’s more discussion by Professor Mann. But, more to the point, it looks like we’re … Continue reading

Posted in chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, energy, ensembles, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastics, temporal myopia, time series
2 Comments

## “Storm-proven forecasting gets yearlong trial”

Storm-studying scientists have made their next-generation forecasting system available online so the wider weather community can put it to the test. After using the real-time system during short-lived field research campaigns, developers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) … Continue reading