Category: information theoretic statistics

• Complexity vs Simplicity in Geophysics

  abstraction . American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . Azimuth Project . complex systems . control theory . differential equations . dynamical systems . eigenanalysis . information theoretic statistics . mathematics . Mathematics and Climate Research Network . mechanistic models . nonlinear systems . Paul Pukite . spectra . spectral methods . spectroscopy . theoretical physics . wave equations . WHT

  Nov 10.2020
• Procrustes tangent distance is better than SNCD

  data science . dependent data . descriptive statistics . divergence measures . hydrology . Ian Dryden . information theoretic statistics . J.T.Kent . Kanti Mardia . non-parametric statistics . normalized compression divergence . quantitative ecology . R statistical programming language . spatial statistics . statistical series . time series

  Feb 24.2019
• A look at an electricity consumption series using SNCDs for clustering

  American Statistical Association . consumption . data streams . decentralized electric power generation . dendrogram . divergence measures . efficiency . electricity . electricity markets . energy efficiency . energy utilities . ensembles . evidence . forecasting . grid defection . hierarchical clustering . hydrology . ILSR . information theoretic statistics . local self reliance . Massachusetts . microgrids . NCD . normalized compression divergence . numerical software . open data . prediction . rate of return regulation . Sankey diagram . SNCD . statistical dependence . statistical series . statistics . sustainability . symmetric normalized compression divergence . time series

  Jan 11.2019
• Series, symmetrized Normalized Compressed Divergences and their logit transforms

  Akaike Information Criterion . bridge to somewhere . computation . content-free inference . data science . descriptive statistics . divergence measures . engineering . George Sughihara . information theoretic statistics . likelihood-free . machine learning . mathematics . model comparison . model-free forecasting . multivariate statistics . non-mechanistic modeling . non-parametric statistics . numerical algorithms . statistics . theoretical physics . thermodynamics . time series

  Jan 3.2019
• The Johnson-Lindenstrauss Lemma, and the paradoxical power of random linear operators. Part 1.

  clustering . data science . dimension reduction . information theoretic statistics . Johnson-Lindenstrauss Lemma . k-NN . Locality Sensitive Hashing . mathematics . maths . multivariate statistics . non-parametric model . numerical algorithms . numerical linear algebra . point pattern analysis . random projections . recommender systems . science . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . subspace projection methods

  Nov 20.2018
• Liang, information flows, causation, and convergent cross-mapping

  Akaike Information Criterion . American Association for the Advancement of Science . Anthropocene . attribution . carbon dioxide . climate . climate change . climate disruption . complex systems . convergent cross-mapping . ecology . Egbert van Nes . Ethan Deyle . Floris Takens . George Sughihara . global warming . Hao Ye . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . Lenny Smith . model-free forecasting . nonlinear systems . physics . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . theoretical physics . Timothy Lenton . Victor Brovkin

  May 2.2017
• Just because the data lies sometimes doesn’t mean it’s okay to censor it

  Akaike Information Criterion . American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . Anthropocene . Bayes . Bayesian . climate . climate change . climate models . data science . dynamical systems . ecology . Eli Rabett . environment . Ethan Deyle . George Sughihara . Hao Ye . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . IPCC . Kalman filter . kriging . Lenny Smith . maximum likelihood . model comparison . model-free forecasting . physics . quantitative ecology . random walk processes . random walks . science . smart data . state-space models . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . the right to know . Timothy Lenton . Victor Brovkin

  May 1.2017
• Why smooth?

  Akaike Information Criterion . American Statistical Association . Antarctica . carbon dioxide . climate change . denial . global warming . information theoretic statistics . likelihood-free . multivariate adaptive regression splines . non-parametric model . science denier . smoothing . splines . statistical dependence

  Dec 8.2016
• Polls, Political Forecasting, and the Plight of Five Thirty Eight

  abstraction . American Statistical Association . anemic data . citizen science . citizenship . civilization . economics . education . forecasting . information theoretic statistics . mathematics . maths . politics . prediction markets . sociology . the right to know . theoretical physics . thermodynamics

  Oct 18.2016
• On Smart Data

  Akaike Information Criterion . Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . big data . bigmemory package for R . changepoint detection . data science . data streams . dlm package . dynamic generalized linear models . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . Generalize Additive Models . generalized linear models . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . linear algebra . logistic regression . machine learning . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . maximum likelihood . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . multivariate statistics . numerical analysis . numerical software . numerics . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . rationality . reasonableness . sampling . smart data . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . the right to know . time series

  Jun 11.2016
• Six cases of models

  AMETSOC . anemic data . Anthropocene . astrophysics . Bayesian . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . carbon dioxide . climate . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate models . dlm package . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . environment . fossil fuels . geophysics . Giovanni Petris . global warming . greenhouse gases . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . maths . maximum likelihood . meteorology . model comparison . numerical software . Patrizia Campagnoli . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . Sonia Petrone . state-space models . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . SVD . time series

  Jun 6.2016
• On Munshi mush

  Bayes . Bayesian . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . carbon dioxide . cat1 . climate . climate change . climate data . climate education . climate models . convergent cross-mapping . dynamic linear models . ecology . ENSO . environment . Ethan Deyle . evidence . geophysics . George Sughihara . global warming . greenhouse gases . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . mathematics . maths . meteorology . model comparison . NOAA . oceanography . prediction . state-space models . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . Techno Utopias . the right to know . theoretical physics . time series . zero carbon

  Jun 5.2016
• Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

  Akaike Information Criterion . approximate Bayesian computation . Bayes . Bayesian . evidence . Frequentist . games of chance . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . likelihood-free . mathematics . maths . maximum likelihood . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . probabilistic programming . rationality . Rauch-Tung-Striebel . Simpson’s Paradox . state-space models . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastics

  May 7.2016
• Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis

  AMETSOC . Anthropocene . astrophysics . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . carbon dioxide . changepoint detection . climate . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate models . ecology . environment . evidence . Gavin Simpson . Generalize Additive Models . geophysics . global warming . HadCRUT4 . hiatus . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . maths . meteorology . numerical analysis . R . rationality . reasonableness . splines . time series

  Apr 8.2016
• HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP series filtered and estimated with simple RTS model

  AMETSOC . anemic data . Bayesian . boosting . bridge to somewhere . cat1 . changepoint detection . climate . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate models . complex systems . computation . data science . dynamical systems . geophysics . George Sughihara . global warming . hiatus . information theoretic statistics . machine learning . maths . meteorology . MIchael Mann . multivariate statistics . physics . prediction . Principles of Planetary Climate . rationality . reasonableness . regime shifts . sea level rise . time series

  Mar 18.2016
• p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

  approximate Bayesian computation . arXiv . Bayes . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . bollocks . Christian Robert . climate . complex systems . data science . Frequentist . information theoretic statistics . likelihood-free . Markov Chain Monte Carlo . MCMC . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . population biology . rationality . reasonableness . science . scientific publishing . statistical dependence . statistics . stochastics . Student t distribution

  Mar 7.2016
• dynamic linear model applied to sea-level-rise anomalies

  Bayesian . citizen science . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . dynamic linear models . floods . forecasting . Frequentist . global warming . icesheets . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . meteorology . open data . sea level rise . state-space models . statistics . time series

  Dec 11.2015
• Southern New England Meteorology Conference, 24th October 2015

  Anthropocene . capricious gods . climate . Dan Satterfield . dynamical systems . ensembles . ENSO . environment . floods . forecasting . geophysics . Hyper Anthropocene . information theoretic statistics . mesh models . meteorology . model comparison . NCAR . NOAA . nor’easters . oceanography . probability . science . spatial statistics . state-space models . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . time series

  Oct 25.2015
• “The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” (Sean Carroll, and collaborators)

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayesian . bifurcations . Boltzmann . capricious gods . dynamical systems . ensembles . games of chance . Gibbs Sampling . information theoretic statistics . Josiah Willard Gibbs . mathematics . maths . physics . probability . rationality . reasonableness . science . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . thermodynamics . Wordpress

  Aug 11.2015
• “Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?” (from Xian)

  arXiv . Bayes . Bayesian . Cauchy distribution . information theoretic statistics . mathematics . maths . optimization . probabilistic programming . probability . rationality . reasonableness . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . Student t distribution

  May 18.2015
• Bayesian change-point analysis for global temperatures, 1850-2010

  Bayes . Bayesian . BUGS . climate . climate change . environment . forecasting . information theoretic statistics . mathematics . MCMC . meteorology . rationality . reasonableness . statistics . stochastic algorithms . Uncategorized

  Mar 2.2015
• engineering and understanding with stable models

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayesian . citizen science . climate . climate change . climate education . differential equations . diffusion processes . ecology . economics . forecasting . geophysics . information theoretic statistics . IPCC . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . meteorology . model comparison . NOAA . oceanography . physics . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . science education . stochastic search . the right to know

  Feb 2.2015
• “… making a big assumption …”

  Bayes . Bayesian . climate . climate education . environment . geophysics . information theoretic statistics . mathematics . maths . meteorology . model comparison . oceanography . physics . rationality . reasonableness . risk . statistics

  Dec 25.2014