### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- London Review of Books
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Awkward Botany
- What If
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- "The Expert"
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Karl Broman
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Gabriel's staircase
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Earle Wilson
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- James' Empty Blog
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- All about Sankey diagrams
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- All about models
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling

### climate change

- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Sea Change Boston
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- SolarLove
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- World Weather Attribution
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Skeptical Science
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Risk and Well-Being
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- MIT's Climate Primer
- David Appell's early climate science
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- RealClimate

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: approximate Bayesian computation

## Papers of the day

From the Machine Learning and Computational Modeling Lab, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran: A. Ahmadian, K. Fouladi, B. N. Araabi, “Writer identification using a probabilistic model of handwritten digits and Approximate Bayesian Computation,” International … Continue reading

## Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
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## p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

Inspired by the extensive and excellent work in approximate Bayesian computation (see also), especially that done by Professors Christian Robert and colleagues (see also), and Professor Simon Wood (see also), it occurred to me that the complaints regarding lack of … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, generalized linear models, machine learning, numerical analysis, numerical software, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, support of black boxes
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## reblog: “Tiny Data, Approximate Bayesian Computation and the Socks of Karl Broman”

It’s Rasmus Bååth, in a post and video of which I am very fond: http://www.sumsar.net/blog/2014/10/tiny-data-and-the-socks-of-karl-broman/.

## On differential localization of tumors using relative concentrations of ctDNA. Part 1.

Like most mammalian tissue, tumors often produce shards of DNA as a byproduct of cell death and fracture. This circulating tumor DNA is being studied as a means of detecting tumors or their resurgence after treatment. (See also a Q&A … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, cardiovascular system, diffusion, dynamic linear models, eigenanalysis, engineering, forecasting, mathematics, maths, medicine, networks, prediction, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, wave equations
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## “The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” (Sean Carroll, and collaborators)

http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2015/08/11/the-bayesian-second-law-of-thermodynamics/ See also.

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, bifurcations, Boltzmann, capricious gods, dynamical systems, ensembles, games of chance, Gibbs Sampling, information theoretic statistics, Josiah Willard Gibbs, mathematics, maths, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, thermodynamics, Wordpress
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## “Unbiased Bayes for Big Data: Path of partial posteriors” (Christian Robert)

Unbiased Bayes for Big Data: Path of partial posteriors.

## engineering and understanding with stable models

Stable distributions or Lévy -stable models is a class of probability distributions which contains the Gaussian, the Cauchy (or Lorentz), and the Lévy distribution. They are parameterized by an which is . Values of of 1 or less give distributions … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, ecology, economics, forecasting, geophysics, information theoretic statistics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, stochastic search, the right to know
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## On nested equivalence classes of climate models, ordered by computational complexity

I’m digging into the internals of ABC, for professional and scientific reasons. I’ve linked a great tutorial elsewhere, and argued that this framework, advanced by Wood, and Wilkinson (Robert), and Wilkinson (Darren), and Hartig and colleagues, and Robert and colleagues, … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, biology, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, MCMC, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, optimization, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, probabilistic programming, R, science, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## “[W]e want to model the process as we would simulate it.”

Professor Darren Wilkinson offers a pithy insight on how to go about constructing statistical models, notably hierarchical ones: “… we want to model the process as we would simulate it ….” This appears in his blog post One-way ANOVA with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, biology, ecology, engineering, forecasting, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, model comparison, optimization, population biology, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, statistics, stochastic algorithms
Tagged ANOVA
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## struggling with problems already partly solved by others

Climate modelers and models see as their frontier the problem of dealing with spontaneous dynamics in systems such as atmosphere or ocean which are not directly forced by boundary conditions such as radiative forcing due to increased greenhouse gas (“GHG”) … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, biology, climate, climate education, differential equations, ecology, engineering, environment, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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