Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
- Label Noise
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- American Statistical Association
- Risk and Well-Being
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Earle Wilson
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Gavin Simpson
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- James' Empty Blog
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- What If
- "The Expert"
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Awkward Botany
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- NCAR AtmosNews
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Mertonian norms
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Earth System Models
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Social Cost of Carbon
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- The Sunlight Economy
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- World Weather Attribution
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Skeptical Science
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Warming slowdown discussion
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Risk and Well-Being
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
Category Archives: probability
667-per-cm.net, the Podcast: Episode 2, or Probability is Real.
This is the second installment of the Podcast here, hopefully with better sound quality.
Posted in probability, random walks, statistics Leave a comment
France, and Mathematics
Cédric Villani, does Mathematics. “Problems worthy of attack, prove their worth by hitting back.” — Piet Hein
“Lucky d20” (by Tamino, with my reblogging comments)
Originally posted on Open Mind:
What with talk of killer heat waves, droughts, floods, etc. etc., this blog tends to get pretty serious. When it does, we don’t deal with happy prospects, but with the danger of worldwide catastrophe. But…
(“Ah, Hypergeometric!” To be said with the same resignation and acceptance as in “I’ll burn my books–Ah, Mephistopheles!” from Faust.)😉 Dr John Cook, eminent all ’round statistician (with a specialty in biostatistics) and statistical consultant, took up a comment I … Continue reading
reblog: “Tiny Data, Approximate Bayesian Computation and the Socks of Karl Broman”
It’s Rasmus Bååth, in a post and video of which I am very fond: http://www.sumsar.net/blog/2014/10/tiny-data-and-the-socks-of-karl-broman/.
Southern New England Meteorology Conference, 24th October 2015
I attending the 2015 edition of the Southern New England Meteorology Conference in Milton, MA, near the Blue Hill, and its Blue Hill Climatological Observatory, of which I am a member as we as of the American Meteorological Society. I … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, capricious gods, climate, Dan Satterfield, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, floods, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, mesh models, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, probability, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, time series 1 Comment
How nice it is that Nature and probability bend to developers whims!
As I have mentioned before, it’s so nice that Nature and probability bend to the whims of property developers and their Town Fathers, with the willing participation of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). If you had property at risk … Continue reading
Posted in capricious gods, chance, citizenship, climate data, conservation, denial, ecology, engineering, environment, ethics, games of chance, ignorance, living shorelines, mathematics, meteorology, obfuscating data, planning, politics, precipitation, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, risk, spatial statistics, University Station, Westwood 1 Comment
“Too late to prevent climate change: Here’s how we adapt” (Alice Bows-Larkin)
Here’s how we adapt.
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, astrophysics, bridge to nowhere, capricious gods, carbon dioxide, chance, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, mathematics, maths, meteorology, mitigation, oceanography, physics, planning, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics, sustainability, zero carbon Leave a comment
Incredible Rainfall In South Carolina, and Yes Climate Played A Role – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere
Make no mistake, this was a flood event unlike any other in South Carolina and while Hurricane Joaquin never hit the coast, it holds a smoking gun. This flood was the result of several factors, an … Source: Incredible Rainfall … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, Dan Satterfield, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, IPCC, James Hansen, maths, meteorology, mitigation, NOAA, oceanography, physics, prediction, Principles of Planetary Climate, probability, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, sustainability, Tamino, the right to know, zero carbon Leave a comment
“The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” (Sean Carroll, and collaborators)
http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2015/08/11/the-bayesian-second-law-of-thermodynamics/ See also.
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, bifurcations, Boltzmann, capricious gods, dynamical systems, ensembles, games of chance, Gibbs Sampling, information theoretic statistics, Josiah Willard Gibbs, mathematics, maths, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, thermodynamics, Wordpress Leave a comment
Hansen et al.
Originally posted on Open Mind:
A new paper by Hansen et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous is currently under review…
Posted in adaptation, Antarctica, Anthropocene, Arctic, astrophysics, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Cauchy distribution, chance, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, COP21, denial, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, floods, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, James Hansen, mathematics, maths, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, politics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, sea level rise, statistics, Student t distribution, Tamino, temporal myopia, the right to know, transparency, UNFCCC, zero carbon Leave a comment
Originally posted on Open Mind:
To all the readers who make this blog worth writing: Thank you. Thank you for sharing my work. One of the things that makes me proud is that often my blog posts are used as…
Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency Leave a comment
Professor James Hansen responds and explains:
The recent paper by Hansen, Soto, and others has caused a stir, as I suspect it was intended to do so. I posted about this paper earlier. Now Professor Hansen has responded to the critics of his team’s work and … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, arXiv, astrophysics, bifurcations, biology, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, COP21, denial, disingenuity, dynamical systems, ecology, education, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, James Hansen, maths, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, new forms of scientific peer review, NOAA, oceanography, open source scientific software, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, sea level rise, temporal myopia, the right to know, time series, WAIS, zero carbon 1 Comment
‘Weather by Icon’ Is A Bad Way To Get an Accurate Forecast – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere
'Weather by Icon' Is A Bad Way To Get an Accurate Forecast – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.
Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere
Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.
Posted in Bayesian, biology, carbon dioxide, chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, denial, ecology, education, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, history, IPCC, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, obfuscating data, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, temporal myopia, time series Leave a comment
“Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?” (from Xian)
Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?. From Professor Christian Robert.
Stone STOCHASTICITY Project
(Click on image for a larger one.) See the write-up for details.