Category Archives: probability

France, and Mathematics

Cédric Villani, does Mathematics. “Problems worthy of attack, prove their worth by hitting back.” — Piet Hein

Posted in abstraction, Google, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, networks, Pagerank, percolation theory, point pattern analysis, probability, rationality, reasonableness, stochastic algorithms | Leave a comment

“Lucky d20” (by Tamino, with my reblogging comments)

Originally posted on Open Mind:
What with talk of killer heat waves, droughts, floods, etc. etc., this blog tends to get pretty serious. When it does, we don’t deal with happy prospects, but with the danger of worldwide catastrophe. But…

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, card decks, card draws, card games, chance, D&D, Dungeons and Dragons, games of chance, mathematics, maths, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probability, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, Wizards of the Coast | Leave a comment

Ah, Hypergeometric!

(“Ah, Hypergeometric!” To be said with the same resignation and acceptance as in “I’ll burn my books–Ah, Mephistopheles!” from Faust.)😉 Dr John Cook, eminent all ’round statistician (with a specialty in biostatistics) and statistical consultant, took up a comment I … Continue reading

Posted in card decks, card draws, card games, games of chance, John Cook, mathematics, maths, probability, sampling, sampling without replacement, statistical dependence | Leave a comment

All I do is complain, complain …

I was reviewing a presentation given as part of a short course in the machine learning genre today, and happened across the following two bullets, under the heading “Strictly Stationary Processes”: Predicting a time series is possible if and only … Continue reading

Posted in bifurcations, chaos, citizen science, convergent cross-mapping, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, engineering, Floris Takens, generalized linear models, geophysics, George Sughihara, ignorance, Lenny Smith, Lorenz, mathematics, maths, meteorology, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Takens embedding theorem, the right to know, time series | 1 Comment

reblog: “Tiny Data, Approximate Bayesian Computation and the Socks of Karl Broman”

It’s Rasmus Bååth, in a post and video of which I am very fond: http://www.sumsar.net/blog/2014/10/tiny-data-and-the-socks-of-karl-broman/.

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, empirical likelihood, evidence, likelihood-free, probability, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search | 1 Comment

Southern New England Meteorology Conference, 24th October 2015

I attending the 2015 edition of the Southern New England Meteorology Conference in Milton, MA, near the Blue Hill, and its Blue Hill Climatological Observatory, of which I am a member as we as of the American Meteorological Society. I … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, capricious gods, climate, Dan Satterfield, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, floods, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, mesh models, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, probability, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, time series | 1 Comment

How nice it is that Nature and probability bend to developers whims!

As I have mentioned before, it’s so nice that Nature and probability bend to the whims of property developers and their Town Fathers, with the willing participation of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). If you had property at risk … Continue reading

Posted in capricious gods, chance, citizenship, climate data, conservation, denial, ecology, engineering, environment, ethics, games of chance, ignorance, living shorelines, mathematics, meteorology, obfuscating data, planning, politics, precipitation, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, risk, spatial statistics, University Station, Westwood | 1 Comment

“Too late to prevent climate change: Here’s how we adapt” (Alice Bows-Larkin)

Here’s how we adapt.

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, astrophysics, bridge to nowhere, capricious gods, carbon dioxide, chance, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, mathematics, maths, meteorology, mitigation, oceanography, physics, planning, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics, sustainability, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Incredible Rainfall In South Carolina, and Yes Climate Played A Role – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Make no mistake, this was a flood event unlike any other in South Carolina and while Hurricane Joaquin never hit the coast, it holds a smoking gun. This flood was the result of several factors, an … Source: Incredible Rainfall … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, Dan Satterfield, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hurricanes, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, IPCC, James Hansen, maths, meteorology, mitigation, NOAA, oceanography, physics, prediction, Principles of Planetary Climate, probability, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, sustainability, Tamino, the right to know, zero carbon | Leave a comment

“The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” (Sean Carroll, and collaborators)

http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2015/08/11/the-bayesian-second-law-of-thermodynamics/ See also.

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, bifurcations, Boltzmann, capricious gods, dynamical systems, ensembles, games of chance, Gibbs Sampling, information theoretic statistics, Josiah Willard Gibbs, mathematics, maths, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, thermodynamics, Wordpress | Leave a comment

Hansen et al.

Originally posted on Open Mind:
A new paper by Hansen et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous is currently under review…

Posted in adaptation, Antarctica, Anthropocene, Arctic, astrophysics, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Cauchy distribution, chance, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, COP21, denial, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, floods, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, James Hansen, mathematics, maths, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, politics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, sea level rise, statistics, Student t distribution, Tamino, temporal myopia, the right to know, transparency, UNFCCC, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Thank You

Originally posted on Open Mind:
To all the readers who make this blog worth writing: Thank you. Thank you for sharing my work. One of the things that makes me proud is that often my blog posts are used as…

Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency | Leave a comment

Professor James Hansen responds and explains:

The recent paper by Hansen, Soto, and others has caused a stir, as I suspect it was intended to do so. I posted about this paper earlier. Now Professor Hansen has responded to the critics of his team’s work and … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, arXiv, astrophysics, bifurcations, biology, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, COP21, denial, disingenuity, dynamical systems, ecology, education, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, James Hansen, maths, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, new forms of scientific peer review, NOAA, oceanography, open source scientific software, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, sea level rise, temporal myopia, the right to know, time series, WAIS, zero carbon | 1 Comment

‘Weather by Icon’ Is A Bad Way To Get an Accurate Forecast – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

'Weather by Icon' Is A Bad Way To Get an Accurate Forecast – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

Posted in dynamical systems, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, history, hurricanes, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, physics, probability, rationality, science, science education, statistics, temporal myopia | Leave a comment

Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

Posted in Bayesian, biology, carbon dioxide, chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, denial, ecology, education, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, history, IPCC, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, obfuscating data, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, temporal myopia, time series | Leave a comment

“Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?” (from Xian)

Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?. From Professor Christian Robert.

Posted in arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Cauchy distribution, information theoretic statistics, mathematics, maths, optimization, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, Student t distribution | Leave a comment

Stone STOCHASTICITY Project

(Click on image for a larger one.) See the write-up for details.

Posted in ales, capricious gods, chance, chemistry, games of chance, maths, probability, risk, statistics, stochastics, the right to know, Uncategorized | Leave a comment