Category Archives: perceptions

“All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George Box

(Image courtesy of the Damien Garcia.) As a statistician and quant, I’ve thought hard about that oft-cited Boxism. I’m not sure I agree. It’s not that there is such a thing as a perfect model, or correct model, whatever in … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, astronomy, astrophysics, mathematics, model-free forecasting, numerics, perceptions, physical materialism, physics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, science, spatial statistics, splines, statistics, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series | Leave a comment

David Spiegelhalter on `how to spot a dodgy statistic’

In this political season, it’s useful to brush up on rhetorical skills, particularly ones involving numbers and statistics, or what John Allen Paulos called numeracy. Professor David Spiegelhalter has written a guide to some of these tricks. Read the whole … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, anemic data, Bayes, Bayesian, chance, citizenship, civilization, corruption, Daniel Kahneman, disingenuity, Donald Trump, education, games of chance, ignorance, maths, moral leadership, obfuscating data, open data, perceptions, politics, rationality, reason, reasonableness, rhetoric, risk, sampling, science, sociology, statistics, the right to know | Leave a comment

George Monbiot: On leaving fossil fuels in the ground

Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, causal diagrams, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, denial, destructive economic development, disruption, distributed generation, ecology, economics, energy, environment, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, George Monbiot, global warming, greenhouse gases, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, perceptions, philosophy, rate of return regulation, rationality, reasonableness, Sankey diagram, supply chains, the problem of evil, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, zero carbon | Leave a comment

Only One Word: EVIL

(There is an update and analysis of Exxon’s reaction to the subpoena issued it by New York State towards the bottom of this post. Click this link.) Exxon in recent days has vehemently denied it had any campaign to discredit … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, consumption, COP21, corruption, denial, disingenuity, energy, Exxon, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, obfuscating data, perceptions, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, temporal myopia | 1 Comment

Lamar Smith: #1 Enemy of Science

Originally posted on Open Mind:
In a rebuke to the #1 enemy of science, Congressman Lamar Smith of Texas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has refused to comply with his attempt “to subpoena internal communications relating to a…

Posted in bollocks, citizenship, civilization, denial, disingenuity, perceptions, politics, sociology | Leave a comment