667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
Skip to content
  • Home
  • About

Category Archives: Arthur Charpentier

Repaired R code for Markov spatial simulation of hurricane tracks from historical trajectories

Posted on 11 August 2016 by ecoquant

(Slight update, 28th June 2020.) I’m currently studying random walk and diffusion processes and their connections with random fields. I’m interested in this because at the core of dynamic linear models, Kalman filters, and state-space methods there is a random … Continue reading →

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Arthur Charpentier, atmosphere, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, geophysics, hurricanes, Kalman filter, Kerry Emanuel, Lévy flights, Lorenz, Markov chain random fields, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, MCMC, mesh models, meteorological models, meteorology, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical analysis, numerical software, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, random walk processes, random walks, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, time series | 1 Comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • American Statistical Association
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • "The Expert"
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • All about models
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Earle Wilson
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Professor David Draper
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Slice Sampling
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
  • climate change

    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • SolarLove
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • And Then There's Physics
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • weather blocking patterns
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Skeptical Science
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • RealClimate
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
  • Archives

  • Jan Galkowski

    • ecoquant
  • Blog Stats

    • 92,524 hits
  • Recent Posts

    • Adobe Lightroom for scientific photos 1 December 2021
    • Stranded Assets Nightmare 29 November 2021
    • Botkin’s Discordant Harmonies, a comment 28 November 2021
    • ‘Keystone Pipeline Developers Seek $15 Billion From U.S. for Cancellation’ 23 November 2021
    • My favorite presentation on climate disruption these days 23 November 2021
    • Photo of the week: Repeatedly distressed Mnium hornum 19 November 2021
    • Gee, if all maths classes were like this, they’d be exhausting … 18 November 2021
    • “Aggregating the harms of fossil fuels” 17 November 2021
    • Awesome. 17 November 2021
    • Price the Roads 16 November 2021
    • Fecklessness 15 November 2021
    • COP26, rest in agony 14 November 2021
    • David Wallace Wells …The Uninhabitable Earth and its implications 13 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break : Signs of Life 13 November 2021
    • Don’t like high or volatile petrol prices? Get an EV to replace your gas-guzzling thang 13 November 2021
    • Clearly not consumption based … but, well … 12 November 2021
    • We are living through the closing door of climate targets 12 November 2021
    • Sunday’s Storms Made Gas More Expensive, Thanks To Yet More East Bay Refinery Flare-Ups 11 November 2021
    • All about net ZERO 10 November 2021
    • Words from Mother Jones 9 November 2021
    • Well, brevity in argument is not something to be expected from training at new, Palantir-supported University of Austin 8 November 2021
    • ‘Will Ford do away with the dealer model?’ 8 November 2021
    • Hydrogen production from curtailed generation 8 November 2021
    • Losing sight of the big picture 8 November 2021
    • Stuart Stevens: Covid a Stress Test, and So Far We’re Failing 7 November 2021
    • The Truth about Sea Level Rise 2 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break: Pink Floyd, David Bowie, Comfortably Numb 2 November 2021
    • Welcome to your future 1 November 2021
    • “They are liars … You can have the best capitalism in the world, but if people are dead, they’re dead. It’s over.” 1 November 2021
    • “I have given up. I am here to talk about the science.” 1 November 2021
    • “How should children learn about climate change?” 30 October 2021
    • Future liability for fossil fuel energy producers and conveyors 29 October 2021
    • Comment on “Federal policy can drive the solar industry… but still may fall short” 28 October 2021
    • Yeah, like many aspects of the biosphere, forests and their contribution to sequestering Carbon is complicated 21 October 2021
    • Dr Gilbz 20 October 2021
    • In the field 19 October 2021
    • Climate Facts from James Hansen and Makiko Sato Ahead of COP26 14 October 2021
    • An Open Letter from U.S. Scientists Imploring President Biden to End the Fossil Fuel Era 9 October 2021
    • “It’s the exact opposite.” 7 October 2021
    • Rationale for XR, short term 5 October 2021
    • “I don’t want my grandchildren to suffer” XR 5 October 2021
    • Stopping climate disruption and eating cookies 5 October 2021
    • Myths 5 October 2021
    • Stephen Fry on XR 5 October 2021
    • A very recent Bill McKibben on Where We Are 1 October 2021
    • “A political dynamic …” 1 October 2021
    • Meet Solkjøring 28 September 2021
    • Greta, YouthCOP, 2021 28 September 2021
    • First Contact, and the Long Now Foundation 26 September 2021
    • Vineyard Sound, Rhode Island Sound, August, 2021 17 September 2021
  • Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Join 132 other subscribers
  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
Create a website or blog at WordPress.com
  • Follow Following
    • 667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
    • Join 132 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • 667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...