### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- James' Empty Blog
- Number Cruncher Politics
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Ted Dunning
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Risk and Well-Being
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Awkward Botany
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Gavin Simpson
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Mertonian norms
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Professor David Draper
- Gabriel's staircase
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.

### climate change

- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Ice and Snow
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Earth System Models
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- MIT's Climate Primer
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- The Sunlight Economy
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- World Weather Attribution
- Risk and Well-Being
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- weather blocking patterns
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- RealClimate
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Social Cost of Carbon

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Kalman filter

## Baseload is an intellectual crutch for engineers and utility managers who cannot think dynamically

This is an awesome presentation by Professor Joshua Pearce of Michigan Technological University. (h/t Peter Sinclair’s Climate Denial Crock of the Week) The same idea, that “baseload is a shortcut for engineers who can’t think dynamically”, was similar in the … Continue reading

Posted in American Solar Energy Society, an ignorant American public, Bloomberg Green, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to somewhere, CleanTechnica, control theory, controls theory, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, differential equations, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, electrical energy engineering, electrical energy storage, electricity, Kalman filter, optimization, photovoltaics, rate of return regulation, solar domination, solar energy, solar revolution, stochastic algorithms, utility company death spiral, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
Tagged baseload, controls theory, dynamics, electrical engineering, energy storage, marginal cost of energy, solar energy, wind energy
Leave a comment

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
Leave a comment

## What happens when time sampling density of a series matches its growth

This is the newly updated map of COVID-19 cases in the United States, updated, presumably, because of the new emphasis upon testing: How do we know this is the recent of recent testing? Look at the map of active cases: … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, climate denial, corruption, data science, data visualization, Donald Trump, dump Trump, epidemiology, experimental science, exponential growth, forecasting, Kalman filter, model-free forecasting, nonlinear systems, open data, penalized spline regression, population dynamics, sampling algorithms, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, the stack of lies
1 Comment

## Repaired R code for Markov spatial simulation of hurricane tracks from historical trajectories

(Slight update, 28th June 2020.) I’m currently studying random walk and diffusion processes and their connections with random fields. I’m interested in this because at the core of dynamic linear models, Kalman filters, and state-space methods there is a random … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Arthur Charpentier, atmosphere, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, geophysics, hurricanes, Kalman filter, Kerry Emanuel, Lévy flights, Lorenz, Markov chain random fields, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, MCMC, mesh models, meteorological models, meteorology, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical analysis, numerical software, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, random walk processes, random walks, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, time series
1 Comment

## A model of an electrical grid: A vision

Many people seem to view the electrical grid of the future being much like the present one. I think a lot about networks, because of my job. And I especially think a lot about network topologies, although primarily concerning the … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Meteorological Association, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, Boston, bridge to somewhere, Buckminster Fuller, Canettes Blues Band, clean disruption, climate business, climate economics, complex systems, corporate supply chains, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, differential equations, distributed generation, efficiency, EIA, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, engineering, extended supply chains, green tech, grid defection, Hermann Scheer, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, ISO-NE, Kalman filter, kriging, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, Lenny Smith, local generation, marginal energy sources, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, mesh models, meteorology, microgrids, networks, New England, New York State, open data, organizational failures, pipelines, planning, prediction markets, public utility commissions, PUCs, rate of return regulation, rationality, reason, reasonableness, regime shifts, regulatory capture, resiliency, risk, Sankey diagram, smart data, solar domination, solar energy, solar power, Spaceship Earth, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, stranded assets, supply chains, sustainability, the energy of the people, the green century, the value of financial assets, thermodynamics, time series, Tony Seba, utility company death spiral, wave equations, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon
Leave a comment

## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
Leave a comment

## Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
Leave a comment

## Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis

See the very interesting discussion at his blog, From the bottom of the heap. It would be nice to see some information theoretic measures on these results, though.

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, ecology, environment, evidence, Gavin Simpson, Generalize Additive Models, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, maths, meteorology, numerical analysis, R, rationality, reasonableness, splines, time series
Leave a comment

## dynamic linear model applied to sea-level-rise anomalies

I spent much of the data working up a function for level+trend dynamic linear modeling based upon the dlm package by Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, while trying some calculations and code for regime shift detection. One of the test cases … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, dynamic linear models, floods, forecasting, Frequentist, global warming, icesheets, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, meteorology, open data, sea level rise, state-space models, statistics, time series
1 Comment

## Solar array with cloud predicting technology launched in WA

Australia’s first grid-connected solar power project with cloud predicting technology launched at Karratha Airport, WA, in bid to smooth solar supply. Source: Solar array with cloud predicting technology launched in WA

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, dynamic linear models, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, engineering, environment, ethics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, Kalman filter, mathematics, maths, meteorology, microgrids, mitigation, NCAR, numerical software, optimization, physics, prediction, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, solar power, stochastics, sustainability, time series
Leave a comment

## Comprehensive and compact tutorial on Petris’ DLM package in R; with an update about Helske’s KFAS

A blogger named Lalas produced on Quantitative Thoughts a very comprehensive and compact tutorial on the R package dlm by Petris. I use dlm a lot. Unfortunately, Lalas does not give details on how the SVD is used. They do … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, forecasting, Kalman filter, mathematics, maths, multivariate statistics, numerical software, open source scientific software, prediction, R, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, SVD, time series
1 Comment