667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
Skip to content
  • Home
  • About

Category Archives: Giovanni Petris

Six cases of models

Posted on 6 June 2016 by ecoquant

The previous post included an attempt to explain land surface temperatures as estimated by the BEST project using a dynamic linear model including regressions on both quarterly CO2 concentrations and ocean heat content. The idea was to check the explanatory … Continue reading →

Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Bayesian, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, dlm package, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, geophysics, Giovanni Petris, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, maths, maximum likelihood, meteorology, model comparison, numerical software, Patrizia Campagnoli, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Sonia Petrone, state-space models, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, SVD, time series | 1 Comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Gabriel's staircase
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • American Statistical Association
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Awkward Botany
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • "The Expert"
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • London Review of Books
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Label Noise
    • Karl Broman
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Ted Dunning
  • climate change

    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Ice and Snow
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • RealClimate
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Skeptical Science
    • Earth System Models
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
  • Archives

  • Jan Galkowski

    • ecoquant
  • Blog Stats

    • 92,524 hits
  • Recent Posts

    • Adobe Lightroom for scientific photos 1 December 2021
    • Stranded Assets Nightmare 29 November 2021
    • Botkin’s Discordant Harmonies, a comment 28 November 2021
    • ‘Keystone Pipeline Developers Seek $15 Billion From U.S. for Cancellation’ 23 November 2021
    • My favorite presentation on climate disruption these days 23 November 2021
    • Photo of the week: Repeatedly distressed Mnium hornum 19 November 2021
    • Gee, if all maths classes were like this, they’d be exhausting … 18 November 2021
    • “Aggregating the harms of fossil fuels” 17 November 2021
    • Awesome. 17 November 2021
    • Price the Roads 16 November 2021
    • Fecklessness 15 November 2021
    • COP26, rest in agony 14 November 2021
    • David Wallace Wells …The Uninhabitable Earth and its implications 13 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break : Signs of Life 13 November 2021
    • Don’t like high or volatile petrol prices? Get an EV to replace your gas-guzzling thang 13 November 2021
    • Clearly not consumption based … but, well … 12 November 2021
    • We are living through the closing door of climate targets 12 November 2021
    • Sunday’s Storms Made Gas More Expensive, Thanks To Yet More East Bay Refinery Flare-Ups 11 November 2021
    • All about net ZERO 10 November 2021
    • Words from Mother Jones 9 November 2021
    • Well, brevity in argument is not something to be expected from training at new, Palantir-supported University of Austin 8 November 2021
    • ‘Will Ford do away with the dealer model?’ 8 November 2021
    • Hydrogen production from curtailed generation 8 November 2021
    • Losing sight of the big picture 8 November 2021
    • Stuart Stevens: Covid a Stress Test, and So Far We’re Failing 7 November 2021
    • The Truth about Sea Level Rise 2 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break: Pink Floyd, David Bowie, Comfortably Numb 2 November 2021
    • Welcome to your future 1 November 2021
    • “They are liars … You can have the best capitalism in the world, but if people are dead, they’re dead. It’s over.” 1 November 2021
    • “I have given up. I am here to talk about the science.” 1 November 2021
    • “How should children learn about climate change?” 30 October 2021
    • Future liability for fossil fuel energy producers and conveyors 29 October 2021
    • Comment on “Federal policy can drive the solar industry… but still may fall short” 28 October 2021
    • Yeah, like many aspects of the biosphere, forests and their contribution to sequestering Carbon is complicated 21 October 2021
    • Dr Gilbz 20 October 2021
    • In the field 19 October 2021
    • Climate Facts from James Hansen and Makiko Sato Ahead of COP26 14 October 2021
    • An Open Letter from U.S. Scientists Imploring President Biden to End the Fossil Fuel Era 9 October 2021
    • “It’s the exact opposite.” 7 October 2021
    • Rationale for XR, short term 5 October 2021
    • “I don’t want my grandchildren to suffer” XR 5 October 2021
    • Stopping climate disruption and eating cookies 5 October 2021
    • Myths 5 October 2021
    • Stephen Fry on XR 5 October 2021
    • A very recent Bill McKibben on Where We Are 1 October 2021
    • “A political dynamic …” 1 October 2021
    • Meet Solkjøring 28 September 2021
    • Greta, YouthCOP, 2021 28 September 2021
    • First Contact, and the Long Now Foundation 26 September 2021
    • Vineyard Sound, Rhode Island Sound, August, 2021 17 September 2021
  • Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Join 132 other subscribers
  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
Create a website or blog at WordPress.com
  • Follow Following
    • 667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
    • Join 132 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • 667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...