### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- London Review of Books
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Ted Dunning
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- American Statistical Association
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Gabriel's staircase
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Awkward Botany
- Karl Broman
- Slice Sampling
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Risk and Well-Being
- Mertonian norms
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Gavin Simpson
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.

### climate change

- MIT's Climate Primer
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Sea Change Boston
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Skeptical Science
- The Sunlight Economy
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- World Weather Attribution
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Risk and Well-Being
- Ice and Snow
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Reanalyses.org
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- And Then There's Physics
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- David Appell's early climate science
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Rauch-Tung-Striebel

## Six cases of models

The previous post included an attempt to explain land surface temperatures as estimated by the BEST project using a dynamic linear model including regressions on both quarterly CO2 concentrations and ocean heat content. The idea was to check the explanatory … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Bayesian, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, dlm package, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, geophysics, Giovanni Petris, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, maths, maximum likelihood, meteorology, model comparison, numerical software, Patrizia Campagnoli, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Sonia Petrone, state-space models, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, SVD, time series
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## Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
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## Thoughts on “Regime Shift?”

John Baez at The Azimuth Project opened a discussion on the recent paper by Reid, et al Philip C. Reid et al, Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift on the Earth’s climate and systems, Global Change Biology, 2015. I … Continue reading

## Comprehensive and compact tutorial on Petris’ DLM package in R; with an update about Helske’s KFAS

A blogger named Lalas produced on Quantitative Thoughts a very comprehensive and compact tutorial on the R package dlm by Petris. I use dlm a lot. Unfortunately, Lalas does not give details on how the SVD is used. They do … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, forecasting, Kalman filter, mathematics, maths, multivariate statistics, numerical software, open source scientific software, prediction, R, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, SVD, time series
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