Category Archives: climate data

“One of the most interesting things about the MIP ensembles is that the mean of all the models generally has higher skill than any individual model.” We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models are created equal, that … Continue reading

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Professor Tony Seba, of late

I love it. Professor Tony Seba, Stanford, 1 week ago. It means anyone who continues to invest in or support the fossil fuels hegemony will be fundamentally disappointed by the markets. And it serves them right. By efficiency, or momentum, … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, anti-intellectualism, anti-science, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BNEF, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, causation, central banks, children as political casualties, citizen science, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate economics, Climate Lab Book, Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, coastal communities, coastal investment risks, coasts, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Constitution of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, consumption, corporate responsibility, corporations, corruption, critical slowing down, ctDNA, Cult of Carbon, David Archer, David Spiegelhalter, decentralized electric power generation

Sidney, NY: The lead example of how the USA will deal with future coastal and riverine flooding?

From Bloomberg, the story of Sidney, NY, not that far from where I used to live in Endicott, NY. More than 400 homes and businesses ended up underwater in Sidney, affecting more than 2,000 people. It was months before Spry … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, bridge to somewhere, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, coastal communities, global warming, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, John Englander, living shorelines, riverine flooding

490+ ppm CO2e

Former Secretary of Energy Stephen Chu at Climate One in 2016. We’ve made progress, but it is nowhere near fast enough. The internal combustion engine is on life support. Fossil fuel energy sources and companies are stranded assets and dead … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, clear air capture of carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Stephen Chu

What Al Gore, Paul Hawken, friends, and company laughingly call “progress”

10 years ago it was 384.26 ppm. That means it is increasing by 1.2 ppm per year.

Posted in American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, ecology, environment, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, Nature | 2 Comments

Eli on “Tom [Karl]’s trick and experimental design“

A very fine post at Eli’s blog for students of statistics, meteorology, and climate (like myself) titled: Tom’s trick and experimental design Excerpt: This and the graph from Menne at the top shows that Karl’s trick is working. Although we … Continue reading

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“Azimuth Backup Project (Part 5)”, upcoming presentation by Prof John Carlos Baez

The post. The Project. The Place. The Conference. The Funders. Thanks to everyone, especially to The Team, to Professor Baez, to the Funders, and to University of California, Riverside. I don’t identify the Team because some don’t want to receive … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, Azimuth Backup Project, California, citizen data, citizenship, climate data, denial, Donald Trump, Ecology Action, friends and colleagues, global blinding, Hyper Anthropocene, rationality, science denier, scientific publishing, tragedy of the horizon, University of California

The work of Alec Bogdanoff and Carol Anne Clayson on the ocean surface boundary layer

Drs Carol Anne Clayson and Alec Bogdanoff examined evaporation from the ocean surface and energy exchange at the boundary layer of the ocean surface, respectively. See also the interactive illustration here. (The above is from Dr Carol Anne Clayson’s personal … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, atmosphere, climate data, complex systems, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, energy flux, fluid dynamics, geophysics, meteorology, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Yea, BOSTON!

MAKING CLIMATE CHANGE DATA ACCESSIBLE Today, the City of Boston released ClimateChangeData.Boston.gov. The City website features scrubbed information from the U.S. EPA Climate Change website. ref: Azimuth Backup Project Just another band out of Boston …

Posted in Azimuth Backup Project, climate change, climate data, climate models, Environmental Protection Agency

Dikran Marsupial’s excellent bit on hypothesis testing applied to climate, or how it should be applied, if at all

Frankly, I wish some geophysicists and climate scientists wrote more as if they thoroughly understood this, let alone deniers to try to discredit climate disruption. See “What does statistically significant actually mean?”. Of course, while statistical power of a test … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, anti-science, Bayesian, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, D. K. Marsupial, Frequentist, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, John Kruschke, regime shifts, statistics, Student t distribution

`Letter to Lamar Smith’

On Ed Hawkins’ blog. The Committee on Science, Space & Technology of the US House of Representatives conducts regular evidence hearings on various science topics. On Wednesday 29th March, there is a hearing on “Climate science: assumptions, policy implications, and … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anemic data, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Ben Santer, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, Climate Lab Book, climate zombies, dependent data, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorology, MIchael Mann, Our Children's Trust, physics, science, smoothing, statistical dependence, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, time series

The first really scary really stupid anti-science prospect from the Trumpistas

They want to shut down and defund DSCOVR: DSCOVR’s cameras are intended to monitor changes in earth’s climate and weather patterns, from ozone and aerosols to temperature and deforestation. One of the scientists involved in developing the satellite told Air … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, anti-science, astronomy, astrophysics, civilization, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, energy flux, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, obfuscating data, oceanography, radiative forcing, risk, science, science denier, Spaceship Earth, the problem of evil, the right to be and act stupid, the tragedy of our present civilization

Zeke Hausfather regarding Baselines and Buoys

Zeke Hausfather at And Then There’s Physics regarding Baselines and Buoys.

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate, climate data, climate zombies, denial, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, NOAA, oceanography

The Azimuth Climate Data Backup Project, in association with ClimateMirror

(Updated the afternoon of 31st May 2017.) The Azimuth Climate Data Backup Project, operating in association with ClimateMirror, is being funded via the Kickstarter available at this link. Give what you can. Thanks! See our goal statement. This is all … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, citizen science, civilization, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, Climate Lab Book, cynicism, denial, Donald Trump, education, EIA, ethics, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, forecasting, fossil fuels, Global Carbon Project, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, NASA, NOAA, open data, open source scientific software, rationality, reason, reasonableness, risk, science, science denier, science education, smart data, statistics, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, UU, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we'' | 4 Comments

You really can’t go home again: An update of “Getting back to 350 ppm CO2 …”

I have made an important update to an earlier post here, Getting back to 350 ppm CO2: You can’t go home again. The message, essentially based upon recent work Tokarska and Zickfield on one hand, and by The Global Carbon … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Carbon Worshipers, clear air capture of carbon dioxide, climate, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate economics, David Archer, diffusion, diffusion processes, ecological services, Eli Rabett, engineering, environment, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuel infrastructure, fossil fuels, games of chance, geoengineering, geophysics, Glen Peters, Global Carbon Project, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Principles of Planetary Climate, Ray Pierrehumbert, science, Spaceship Earth, Susan Solomon, Svante Arrhenius, the tragedy of our present civilization, Tokarska and Zickfield, Wordpress, zero carbon | 1 Comment

Why scientific measurements need to be adjusted

There is an excellent piece in Ars Technica about why scientific measurements need to be adjusted, and the implications of this for climate data. It is written by Scott K Johnson and is called “Thorough, not thoroughly fabricated: The truth … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, Canettes Blues Band, citizen data, climate data, data science, environment, evidence, geophysics, GISTEMP, HadCRUT4, mathematics education, meteorological models, obfuscating data, open data, physics, science, spatial statistics, Tamino, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, Variable Variability

`Moving forward on climate change and sustainability`

From WGBH, and hat tip to Environmental Justice TV, includes Dr Gavin Schmidt speaking, who I was especially interested in, and whose talk begins here: Interesting that Dr Schmidt has some gentle criticism of the PBS program NOVA. Whole talk … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, Buckminster Fuller, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, Ecology Action, environment, Equiterre, fossil fuel divestment, Gavin Schmidt, geophysics, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, Kevin Anderson, moral leadership, NASA, physics, science, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, the tragedy of our present civilization, the value of financial assets, zero carbon

NCAR reports on a teleconnection between the Pacific and continental USA

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (“NCAR”) reports on a newly substantiated teleconnection between positive sea surface temperature anomalies (“SSTA”) in the Pacific and the temperatures over the continental United States (“CONUS”) 50 days later. A teleconnection is: A linkage … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, attribution, climate, climate data, coastal communities, coasts, dynamical systems, environment, fluid dynamics, fluid eddies, food, forecasting, geophysics, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, living shorelines, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, meteorological models, meteorology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, NOAA, oceanic eddies, oceanography, open data, Principles of Planetary Climate, sea level rise, U.S. Navy, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Sleeping Giant Awakening

Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:
https://twitter.com/johnmyers/status/809097380456865792 Wikipedia: Isoroku Yamamoto’s sleeping giant quotation is a quote by the Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto regarding the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor by forces of Imperial Japan. The quotation is portrayed at the very end of…

Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Solar Energy Society, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, California, Carbon Worshipers, citizen data, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, data science, Donald Trump, ecology, Ecology Action, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, Jerry Brown, science, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the stack of lies, the tragedy of our present civilization

Global Carbon Dioxide in 3D

Your CO2, my CO2 doesn’t remain with you or me, but mixes broadly and thoroughly over the planet at large. So, we all share responsibility for the damage. Credit: NASA And brought to you by OCO-2.

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, civilization, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, diffusion, diffusion processes, Donald Trump, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, fluid eddies, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, NASA, NCAR

Just a lil’ bit o’ a drought … Nothing to be alarmed about … (!)

Posted in adaptation, American Meteorological Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, drought, environment, fluid dynamics, global warming, greenhouse gases, hydrology, Hyper Anthropocene, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, meteorology, quantitative ecology, Spaceship Earth, statistics, time series, water, water vapor, WHOI, zero carbon

“Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead” (Dr Gavin Schmidt at REALCLIMATE)

Dr Schmidt is essentially betting that the trend, seen as a random variable, will regress towards the smooth mean. I have a post at Nate Silver’s 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature anomalies based on El … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, changepoint detection, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, oceanography, physics, regression toward the mean, science, statistics, time series

“Naïve empiricism and what theory suggests about errors in observed global warming”

A post from one of my favorite statistics-oriented bloggers, Variable Variability, dealing with a subject too casually passed over. See Naïve empiricism and what theory suggests about errors in observed global warming.

Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, confirmation bias, geophysics, rationality, statistics, time series, Variable Variability, Victor Venema

“Full-depth Ocean Heat Content” reblog

This is a re-blog of an excellent post at And Then There’s Physics, titled Full-depth OHC or, expanded, “full-depth ocean heat content”. Since my holiday is now over, I thought I might briefly comment on a recent paper by Cheng … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, computation, differential equations, ensembles, environment, fluid dynamics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, Lorenz, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, science, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series

Six cases of models

The previous post included an attempt to explain land surface temperatures as estimated by the BEST project using a dynamic linear model including regressions on both quarterly CO2 concentrations and ocean heat content. The idea was to check the explanatory … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Bayesian, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, dlm package, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, geophysics, Giovanni Petris, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, maths, maximum likelihood, meteorology, model comparison, numerical software, Patrizia Campagnoli, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Sonia Petrone, state-space models, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, SVD, time series | 1 Comment

On Munshi mush

(Slightly updated on 2016-06-11.) Professor Emeritus Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University has papers recently cited in science denier circles as evidence that the conventional associations between mean global surface temperature and cumulative carbon emissions are, well, bunk, due to … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, cat1, climate, climate change, climate data, climate education, climate models, convergent cross-mapping, dynamic linear models, ecology, ENSO, environment, Ethan Deyle, evidence, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, greenhouse gases, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, mathematics, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, prediction, state-space models, statistics, Takens embedding theorem, Techno Utopias, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series, zero carbon | 1 Comment

UnScientific Americans: Congress Aims to Cut Climate Science

Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:
These guys are not joking. You wonder how great civilizations turn their back on enlightenment? Here’s how. Scientific American: Congress is considering spending bills that would significantly cut funding for key…

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, atmosphere, carbon dioxide, citizen science, citizenship, climate data, denial, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, ignorance, rationality, reasonableness, science, science denier, the problem of evil, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, zero carbon

Absorption of long wave, or thermal radiation by CO2 at 667 per cm

From time to time, I engage with science deniers on the Web, typically in Comment sections, and primarily regarding aspects of climate science or physics. Some think this to be a waste of time, but, as I enjoy debating (have … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, astrophysics, atmosphere, Bill Nye, carbon dioxide, chemistry, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, denial, evidence, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, science denier, science education, spectra, SuperCorrector1, Svante Arrhenius

Climate Denial Fails Pepsi Challenge

Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:
Stephen Lewandowsky specializes in conducting research that pulls back the curtain climate denial psychology. He’s done it again. Washington Post: Researchers have designed an inventive test suggesting that the arguments commonly used…

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, card draws, card games, chance, climate, climate change, climate data, climate education, confirmation bias, data science, denial, disingenuity, education, false advertising, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, ignorance, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, obfuscating data, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, the right to know

Kevin Anderson’s latest

Also note Oxfam’s “World’s richest 10% produce half of carbon emissions while poorest 3.5 billion account for just a tenth“. Update, 2016-04-28: And what, exactly, does the Paris agreement (COP21) mean? See this story.

Posted in adaptation, agriculture, Anthropocene, biofuels, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, bridge to nowhere, bridge to somewhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, denial, destructive economic development, disruption, distributed generation, ecology, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy, energy reduction, energy storage, energy utilities, environment, ethics, evidence, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, global warming, greenhouse gases, grid defection, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, Kevin Anderson, liberal climate deniers, local generation, microgrids, natural gas, rationality, reasonableness, science, sustainability, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, zero carbon | 1 Comment