### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Gavin Simpson
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Professor David Draper
- James' Empty Blog
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Slice Sampling
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Earle Wilson
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Gabriel's staircase
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Karl Broman
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- London Review of Books
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- What If
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- NCAR AtmosNews

### climate change

- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Earth System Models
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- World Weather Attribution
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Reanalyses.org
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- The Sunlight Economy
- SolarLove
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Ice and Snow
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Sea Change Boston
- Simple models of climate change

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: dlm package

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## Six cases of models

The previous post included an attempt to explain land surface temperatures as estimated by the BEST project using a dynamic linear model including regressions on both quarterly CO2 concentrations and ocean heat content. The idea was to check the explanatory … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Bayesian, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, dlm package, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, geophysics, Giovanni Petris, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, maths, maximum likelihood, meteorology, model comparison, numerical software, Patrizia Campagnoli, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Sonia Petrone, state-space models, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, SVD, time series
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