Day: February 14, 2018
-
Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science
—
by
in American Statistical Association, Andrew Parnell, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bayesian, Bayesian model averaging, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate change, David Spiegelhalter, dependent data, Dublin, GISTEMP, global warming, Grant Foster, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, JAGS, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, MCMC, model-free forecasting, Niamh Cahill, Significance, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, Tamino(This post has been significantly updated midday 15th February 2018.) I’ve written about the supposed global warming hiatus of 2001-2014 before: “‘Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years’ (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)”, 28 August 2013 “Warming Slowdown?”, Azimuth, Part 1 (29 May 2014), and Part 2 (5 June 2014) “A conclusion that ‘the hiatus’…
-
Undo your part
From Citizens Climate Lobby. Great slogan. And there’s a Boston Metro West chapter, among others. They principally argue for a Carbon tax or Carbon fee-and-dividend program. There are a couple of things to note, however. (The basic slide above is due to Dr Glen Peters of CICERO. Embellishments emphasizing the $500/tonne and $1000/tonne hacks on…