### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Risk and Well-Being
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Ted Dunning
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Slice Sampling
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- American Statistical Association
- NCAR AtmosNews
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Earle Wilson
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Mertonian norms
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- What If
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- All about models
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth

### climate change

- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Earth System Models
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- World Weather Attribution
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Reanalyses.org
- Simple models of climate change
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Sea Change Boston
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: JAGS

## Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science

(This post has been significantly updated midday 15th February 2018.) I’ve written about the supposed global warming hiatus of 2001-2014 before: “‘Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years’ (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)”, 28 August 2013 “Warming Slowdown?”, Azimuth, Part … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Parnell, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bayesian, Bayesian model averaging, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate change, David Spiegelhalter, dependent data, Dublin, GISTEMP, global warming, Grant Foster, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, JAGS, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, MCMC, model-free forecasting, Niamh Cahill, Significance, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, Tamino
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## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## “A vignette on Metropolis” (Christian Robert)

Originally posted on Xi'an's Og:

Over the past week, I wrote a short introduction to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, mostly in the style of our Introduction to Monte Carlo with R book, that is, with very little theory and…

## We are trying. And the bitterest result is to have so-called colleagues align themselves with the Koch brothers

I attended a 350.org meeting tonight. One group A group presenting there called “Fighting Against Natural Gas” applauded themselves for assailing Senator Whitehouse of Rhode Island for his supportive position on natural gas pipelines. Now, I am no friend of … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, astrophysics, Boston Ethical Society, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Tax, chemistry, citizenship, climate, climate change, climate education, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, energy reduction, engineering, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, JAGS, meteorology, methane, model comparison, NASA, natural gas, NCAR, Neill deGrasse Tyson, oceanography, open data, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, Python 3, R, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
4 Comments

## Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler

Professor Christian Robert remarks on the amazing Gibbs sampler. Implicitly he’s also underscoring the power of properly done Bayesian computational analysis. For here we have a problem with a posterior distribution having two strong modes, so a point estimate, like … Continue reading

## An equation-free introduction to Bayesian inference

By Tomoharu Eguchi from 2008: “An Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Without Using Equations“.

## example of Bayesian inversion

This is based upon my solution of Exercise 2.3, page 18, R. Christensen, W. Johnson, A. Branscum, T. E. Hanson, Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis, Chapman & Hall, 2011. The purpose is to show how information latent in a set … Continue reading

## Bayesian deconvolution of stick lengths

Consider trying to determine the length of a straight stick. Instead of the measurement errors being clustered about zero, suppose the errors are known to be always positive, that is, no measurement ever underestimates the length of the stick. Such … Continue reading

## The dp-means algorithm of Kulis and Jordan in R and Python

dp-means algorithm. Think k-means but with the number of clusters calculated. By John Myles White, in R. (Github link off that page.) By Scott Hendrickson, in Python. (Github link off that page.)

Posted in Bayesian, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, maths, R, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
Tagged dp-means
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## Blind Bayesian recovery of components of residential solid waste tonnage from totals data

This is a sketch of how maths and statistics can do something called blind source separation, meaning to estimate the components of data given only their totals. Here, I use Bayesian techniques for the purpose, sometimes called Bayesian inversion, using … Continue reading

## “The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”

Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. Nonetheless, it’s all reacting to “What the hell are you doing? I don’t … Continue reading

## How fast is JAGS?

How fast is JAGS?.

## The zero-crossings trick for JAGS: Finding roots stochastically

BUGS has a “zeros trick” (Lund, Jackson, Best, Thomas, Spiegelhalter, 2013, pages 204-206; see also an online illustration) for specifying a new distribution which is not in the standard set. The idea is to couple an invented-for-the-moment Poisson density to … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, education, forecasting, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, MCMC, probabilistic programming, R, statistics, stochastic search
Tagged error-in-variables problem, optimization, zeros trick
4 Comments