Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Gabriel's staircase
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Gavin Simpson
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Mertonian norms
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- London Review of Books
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Professor David Draper
- All about models
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Karl Broman
- American Statistical Association
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Risk and Well-Being
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
climate change
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- The Sunlight Economy
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Risk and Well-Being
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Sea Change Boston
- World Weather Attribution
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Skeptical Science
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Simple models of climate change
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Reanalyses.org
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: hiatus
Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science
(This post has been significantly updated midday 15th February 2018.) I’ve written about the supposed global warming hiatus of 2001-2014 before: “‘Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years’ (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)”, 28 August 2013 “Warming Slowdown?”, Azimuth, Part … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Parnell, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bayesian, Bayesian model averaging, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate change, David Spiegelhalter, dependent data, Dublin, GISTEMP, global warming, Grant Foster, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, JAGS, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, MCMC, model-free forecasting, Niamh Cahill, Significance, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, Tamino
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Dikran Marsupial’s excellent bit on hypothesis testing applied to climate, or how it should be applied, if at all
Frankly, I wish some geophysicists and climate scientists wrote more as if they thoroughly understood this, let alone deniers to try to discredit climate disruption. See “What does statistically significant actually mean?”. Of course, while statistical power of a test … Continue reading
Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis
See the very interesting discussion at his blog, From the bottom of the heap. It would be nice to see some information theoretic measures on these results, though.
Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, ecology, environment, evidence, Gavin Simpson, Generalize Additive Models, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, maths, meteorology, numerical analysis, R, rationality, reasonableness, splines, time series
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HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP series filtered and estimated with simple RTS model
Happy Vernal Equinox! This post has been updated today with some of the equations which correspond to the models. An assessment of whether or not there was a meaningful slowdown or “hiatus” in global warming, was recently discussed by Tamino … Continue reading
Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Bayesian, boosting, bridge to somewhere, cat1, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, complex systems, computation, data science, dynamical systems, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, hiatus, information theoretic statistics, machine learning, maths, meteorology, MIchael Mann, multivariate statistics, physics, prediction, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, regime shifts, sea level rise, time series
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On friction and the duplicity
(Hat tip to Peter Sinclair at Climate Denial Crock of the Week.) Has Senator Cruz called Dr Carl Mears (video) of Remote Sensing Systems, the maker and interpreter of the sensor Senator Cruz used for his Spencer-Christy-Curry carnival? No. Of … Continue reading
Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, confirmation bias, corruption, denial, disingenuity, ecology, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, obfuscating data, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, time series
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Courage in Congress
When someone cannot argue on the basis of evidence and logic, a tempting ploy is to discredit their opponent by tarnishing their character. This is, of course, an invalid argument, since it is entirely possible that even one of tarnished … Continue reading
House Science, Space, and Technology Committee vs National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation
I wonder if this has anything to do with giving Exxon legal cover? Hmmm …
Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, Carbon Worshipers, citizen science, citizenship, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, denial, disingenuity, education, environment, ethics, Exxon, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, time series, zero carbon
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“Where most of us live (with apologies to southern-hemisphere readers)” [reblog of Tamino]
Love the comparison with Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures.
Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, denial, ecology, education, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NOAA, open data, physics, prediction, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, statistics, Tamino, time series, Uncategorized, Wordpress
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Thank You
And thanks, Tamino!
Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency
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New “NASA and NOAA” global temperature series
Love the “But I digress” in Tamino‘s post “NASA and NOAA” about new global temperature series from both agencies. Tamino references this lecture by the middle-of-the-road climate scientist and hurricanes expert Professor Kerry Emanuel:
Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, denial, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, hurricanes, IPCC, meteorology, NASA, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, open data, physics, politics, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, statistics, Tamino, WHOI, Wordpress
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“NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’” (Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate)
NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’.
Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere
Destroying the Most Persistent Scientific Myth In America – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.
Posted in Bayesian, biology, carbon dioxide, chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, denial, ecology, education, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, history, IPCC, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, obfuscating data, physics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, temporal myopia, time series
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Desperate for a “Pause”
About more Denier cherry-picking.
Posted in climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, climate zombies, environment, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, obfuscating data, open data, physics, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, science, science education, statistics, time series, Uncategorized
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“NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’” (from Gavin at REALCLIMATE)
NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’. No doubt there’ll be, as Dr Schmidt says, a howl of protests that the data are “being manipulated”. There’s more discussion by Professor Mann. But, more to the point, it looks like we’re … Continue reading
Posted in chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, energy, ensembles, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastics, temporal myopia, time series
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ecoquant
