Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Number Cruncher Politics
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Risk and Well-Being
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- What If
- Awkward Botany
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Karl Broman
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Label Noise
- All about models
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Slice Sampling
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
climate change
- David Appell's early climate science
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- RealClimate
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Climate model projections versus observations
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Skeptical Science
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Simple models of climate change
- World Weather Attribution
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: Martyn Plummer
Less evidence for a global warming hiatus, and urging more use of Bayesian model averaging in climate science
(This post has been significantly updated midday 15th February 2018.) I’ve written about the supposed global warming hiatus of 2001-2014 before: “‘Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years’ (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers, 2013)”, 28 August 2013 “Warming Slowdown?”, Azimuth, Part … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Parnell, anomaly detection, Anthropocene, Bayesian, Bayesian model averaging, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, climate change, David Spiegelhalter, dependent data, Dublin, GISTEMP, global warming, Grant Foster, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, JAGS, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, MCMC, model-free forecasting, Niamh Cahill, Significance, statistics, Stefan Rahmstorf, Tamino
2 Comments
Rushing the +2 degree Celsius boundary
I made a comment on Google+ pertaining to a report of a recent NOAA finding. Enjoy. But remember that COP21 boundary is equivalent to 450 ppm CO2.
Posted in adaptation, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, atmosphere, Bill Nye, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate disruption, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, differential equations, disruption, distributed generation, Donald Trump, ecology, El Nina, El Nino, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, environmental law, Epcot, explosive methane, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, local generation, Mark Jacobson, Martyn Plummer, microgrids, Miguel Altieri, philosophy, physical materialism, R, resiliency, Ricky Rood, risk, Sankey diagram
Leave a comment
“Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]
Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
Leave a comment
ecoquant
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy 