667 per centimeter
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
Skip to content
  • Home
  • About

Category Archives: dichotomising continuous variables

A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

Posted on 11 September 2018 by ecoquant

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading →

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics | Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Awkward Botany
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Number Cruncher Politics
    • Earle Wilson
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • All about models
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • Professor David Draper
    • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    • Karl Broman
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • What If
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
  • climate change

    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • RealClimate
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • And Then There's Physics
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Skeptical Science
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Simple models of climate change
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • Sea Change Boston
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
  • Archives

  • Jan Galkowski

    • 1 ecoquant
  • Blog Stats

    • 116,749 hits
  • Recent Posts

    • “Estonia Warns European Allies Against Direct Talks With Russia” 17 May 2026
    • wind machine 10 May 2026
    • Dr Des Callaghan’s “Bryophytes around the world” 28 April 2026
    • Entire NSF National Science Board fired by Donald Trump 27 April 2026
    • DT is moving to control U.S. elections, one state at a time 27 April 2026
    • The Climate Brink 17 April 2026
    • Tamino, on Climate, Spring 2026 12 April 2026
    • from Canada PM Mark Carney 24 March 2026
    • Professor Katharine Hayhoe “Talking Climate” today 21 March 2026
    • thanks DT for making the case for solar and EVs and NOT oil 20 March 2026
    • 2026 March 14 [J 073.87] “Pi Day” 14 March 2026
    • Rare and hard to find 1937-1938 15 February 2026
    • EPA official actions on their “endangerment finding” 14 February 2026
    • RC: “a peek behind the curtain” 23 January 2026
    • Stark 18 January 2026
    • Could this be why DT wants Greenland? 16 January 2026
    • NAP update on Endangerment Finding 26 December 2025
    • Sporophyte capsules 16 October 2025
    • AI and GPT don’t manufacture results from nothing 18 September 2025
    • 16th September 2025, Westwood, MA 16 September 2025
    • Pohlia lescuriana 6 September 2025
    • Mckibben vs Nordhous 22 August 2025
    • NOAA climate assessment which has been taken off the federal site 13 August 2025
    • Fast-Track Review of Latest Evidence for Whether Greenhouse Gas Emissions Endanger Public Health and Welfare 7 August 2025
    • A New Phase in Trump’s War on Data 6 August 2025
    • Beaker Street 5 August 2025
    • Biofluorescent marsupial 5 August 2025
    • Steve Buchan, botanical photographer 28 July 2025
    • 2025 Jul 4-12 J(185-193) around yard 2 long lenses OM5 camera 12 July 2025
    • 25mm compact lens equivalent to 50mm 2 July 2025
    • Polytrichum macro photos, several of spore capsules 30 June 2025
    • “Macro Treasures” 12 June 2025
    • Flickr Account 24 May 2025
    • 2025 May 8 J 128 redbuds, etc, OM Systems 60mm lens 8 May 2025
    • 2025 April 19 J109 some close-ups of Polytrichum 19 April 2025
    • A New Lens 26 March 2025
    • 2025 March 23 J 82 23 March 2025
    • Climacium in Lawns 20 March 2025
    • 2025 March 16 J 75 Westwood, MA 16 March 2025
    • “Is the AMOC headed for a tipping point? Interview with Henk Dijkstra” 15 March 2025
    • 2025-03-10 J 69 10 March 2025
    • “Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jacob Lew and Janet Yellen are former Treasury secretaries” 1 March 2025
    • “Any fool can break things” 1 March 2025
    • “What I did last week …” 27 February 2025
    • (no title) 23 February 2025
    • yesterday 16 February 2025
    • 2025Feb11 11 February 2025
    • Eviscerating the NSF 10 February 2025
    • Comments on MFT for macrophotography, especially the OLY 60mm lens 7 February 2025
    • 2025Feb5J36 post-snow, pre-snow Polytrichum 5 February 2025
  • Follow Blog via Email

    Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Join 131 other subscribers
  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter Arctic Ice: The Saga Continues
Create a website or blog at WordPress.com

Loading Comments...