### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- London Review of Books
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Risk and Well-Being
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- "The Expert"
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- What If
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Awkward Botany
- Ted Dunning
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- All about models
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Label Noise
- Gavin Simpson
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!

### climate change

- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Earth System Models
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Risk and Well-Being
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Reanalyses.org
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Frequentist

## A response to a post on *RealClimate*

(Updated 2342 EDT, 28 June 2019.) This is a response to a post on RealClimate which primarily concerned economist Ross McKitrick’s op-ed in the Financial Post condemning the geophysical community for disregarding Roger Pielke, Jr’s arguments. Pielke, in that link, … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Bayesian, climate change, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, evidence, experimental design, Frequentist, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, machine learning, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, science, science denier, statistical series, statistics, time series
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## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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## Dikran Marsupial’s excellent bit on hypothesis testing applied to climate, or how it should be applied, if at all

Frankly, I wish some geophysicists and climate scientists wrote more as if they thoroughly understood this, let alone deniers to try to discredit climate disruption. See “What does statistically significant actually mean?”. Of course, while statistical power of a test … Continue reading

## “… The Green-Feminine stereotype and its effect on sustainable consumption”

Updated, 2016-11-28 I heard about this study earlier this year, and queued it up for a careful examination. I got to that today. The article is: A R Brough, J E B Wilkie, J Ma, M S Isaac, D Gal, … Continue reading

Posted in Frequentist, statistics
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## Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
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## p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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## dynamic linear model applied to sea-level-rise anomalies

I spent much of the data working up a function for level+trend dynamic linear modeling based upon the dlm package by Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, while trying some calculations and code for regime shift detection. One of the test cases … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, dynamic linear models, floods, forecasting, Frequentist, global warming, icesheets, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, meteorology, open data, sea level rise, state-space models, statistics, time series
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