### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- James' Empty Blog
- What If
- Karl Broman
- "The Expert"
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Ted Dunning
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Gabriel's staircase
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Awkward Botany
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Risk and Well-Being
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book

### climate change

- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Reanalyses.org
- SolarLove
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Earth System Models
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- World Weather Attribution
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- David Appell's early climate science
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Climate model projections versus observations
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Risk and Well-Being
- And Then There's Physics
- Skeptical Science
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Warming slowdown discussion
- The Sunlight Economy
- Social Cost of Carbon

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Frequentist

## A response to a post on *RealClimate*

(Updated 2342 EDT, 28 June 2019.) This is a response to a post on RealClimate which primarily concerned economist Ross McKitrick’s op-ed in the Financial Post condemning the geophysical community for disregarding Roger Pielke, Jr’s arguments. Pielke, in that link, … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Bayesian, climate change, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, evidence, experimental design, Frequentist, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, machine learning, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, science, science denier, statistical series, statistics, time series
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## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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## Dikran Marsupial’s excellent bit on hypothesis testing applied to climate, or how it should be applied, if at all

Frankly, I wish some geophysicists and climate scientists wrote more as if they thoroughly understood this, let alone deniers to try to discredit climate disruption. See “What does statistically significant actually mean?”. Of course, while statistical power of a test … Continue reading

## “… The Green-Feminine stereotype and its effect on sustainable consumption”

Updated, 2016-11-28 I heard about this study earlier this year, and queued it up for a careful examination. I got to that today. The article is: A R Brough, J E B Wilkie, J Ma, M S Isaac, D Gal, … Continue reading

Posted in Frequentist, statistics
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## Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
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## p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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## dynamic linear model applied to sea-level-rise anomalies

I spent much of the data working up a function for level+trend dynamic linear modeling based upon the dlm package by Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, while trying some calculations and code for regime shift detection. One of the test cases … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, dynamic linear models, floods, forecasting, Frequentist, global warming, icesheets, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, meteorology, open data, sea level rise, state-space models, statistics, time series
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