Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Mertonian norms
- Slice Sampling
- "The Expert"
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Gabriel's staircase
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- What If
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Gavin Simpson
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Professor David Draper
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- American Statistical Association
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
climate change
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- weather blocking patterns
- Simple models of climate change
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Sea Change Boston
- Ice and Snow
- World Weather Attribution
- Climate model projections versus observations
- The Sunlight Economy
- RealClimate
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Reanalyses.org
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: Frequentist
A response to a post on RealClimate
(Updated 2342 EDT, 28 June 2019.) This is a response to a post on RealClimate which primarily concerned economist Ross McKitrick’s op-ed in the Financial Post condemning the geophysical community for disregarding Roger Pielke, Jr’s arguments. Pielke, in that link, … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Bayesian, climate change, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, evidence, experimental design, Frequentist, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, machine learning, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, science, science denier, statistical series, statistics, time series
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A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data
The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading
Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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Dikran Marsupial’s excellent bit on hypothesis testing applied to climate, or how it should be applied, if at all
Frankly, I wish some geophysicists and climate scientists wrote more as if they thoroughly understood this, let alone deniers to try to discredit climate disruption. See “What does statistically significant actually mean?”. Of course, while statistical power of a test … Continue reading
“… The Green-Feminine stereotype and its effect on sustainable consumption”
Updated, 2016-11-28 I heard about this study earlier this year, and queued it up for a careful examination. I got to that today. The article is: A R Brough, J E B Wilkie, J Ma, M S Isaac, D Gal, … Continue reading
Posted in Frequentist, statistics
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Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)
(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading
Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
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p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule
The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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dynamic linear model applied to sea-level-rise anomalies
I spent much of the data working up a function for level+trend dynamic linear modeling based upon the dlm package by Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, while trying some calculations and code for regime shift detection. One of the test cases … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, dynamic linear models, floods, forecasting, Frequentist, global warming, icesheets, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, meteorology, open data, sea level rise, state-space models, statistics, time series
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ecoquant
