### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Awkward Botany
- Slice Sampling
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Ted Dunning
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Earle Wilson
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- What If
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- London Review of Books
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Mertonian norms
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Label Noise
- Gabriel's staircase
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- "The Expert"
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data

### climate change

- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- The Sunlight Economy
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Earth System Models
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Sea Change Boston
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Skeptical Science
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Simple models of climate change
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- David Appell's early climate science
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Ice and Snow
- Social Cost of Carbon
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- weather blocking patterns

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Generalize Additive Models

## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## Gavin Simpson updates his temperature analysis

See the very interesting discussion at his blog, From the bottom of the heap. It would be nice to see some information theoretic measures on these results, though.

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, astrophysics, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, carbon dioxide, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, ecology, environment, evidence, Gavin Simpson, Generalize Additive Models, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, maths, meteorology, numerical analysis, R, rationality, reasonableness, splines, time series
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