### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Risk and Well-Being
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- American Statistical Association
- London Review of Books
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Mertonian norms
- All about models
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Awkward Botany
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- What If
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Karl Broman
- All about Sankey diagrams

### climate change

- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Climate model projections versus observations
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- The Sunlight Economy
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Spectra Energy exposed
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- David Appell's early climate science
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- RealClimate
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- World Weather Attribution
- SolarLove
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: dynamic generalized linear models

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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## on nonlinear dynamics of hordes of people

I spent a bit of last week at a symposium honoring the work of Charney and Lorenz in fluid dynamics. I am no serious student of fluid dynamics. I have a friend, Klaus, an engineer, who is, and makes a … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, bifurcations, biology, Carl Safina, causation, complex systems, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecological services, ecology, Emily Shuckburgh, finance, Floris Takens, fluid dynamics, fluid eddies, games of chance, Hyper Anthropocene, investments, Lenny Smith, Lorenz, nonlinear, numerical algorithms, numerical analysis, politics, population biology, population dynamics, prediction markets, Principles of Planetary Climate, public transport, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, sampling networks, sustainability, Timothy Lenton, Yale University Statistics Department, zero carbon, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
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## Results of short literature search on impacts of climate change upon ecosystems and bird or animal migration patterns, from the journals of the *Ecological Society of America*

I decided to do a quick literature search on the impacts of climate change upon ecosystems and migration patterns. I could have kept the list private, but why not make it public? Not all these articles are purely about the … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, American Statistical Association, Anthropocene, biology, climate change, climate education, climate models, complex systems, differential equations, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ecological services, Ecological Society of America, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, evidence, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, marine biology, mass extinctions, nonlinear systems, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, tragedy of the horizon
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## Chesterton’s fence, ecological sensitivity, and the disruption of ecological services

Hat tip to Matt Levine for introducing me to the term Chesteron’s fence: Chesterton’s fence is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. … In the matter of … Continue reading

## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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