### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Gabriel's staircase
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Mertonian norms
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- James' Empty Blog
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Earle Wilson
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- London Review of Books
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Karl Broman
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- All about models
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- NCAR AtmosNews
- American Statistical Association
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Label Noise
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.

### climate change

- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- RealClimate
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Ice and Snow
- MIT's Climate Primer
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- SolarLove
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Simple models of climate change
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- David Appell's early climate science
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Sea Change Boston
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: dynamic generalized linear models

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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## on nonlinear dynamics of hordes of people

I spent a bit of last week at a symposium honoring the work of Charney and Lorenz in fluid dynamics. I am no serious student of fluid dynamics. I have a friend, Klaus, an engineer, who is, and makes a … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, bifurcations, biology, Carl Safina, causation, complex systems, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecological services, ecology, Emily Shuckburgh, finance, Floris Takens, fluid dynamics, fluid eddies, games of chance, Hyper Anthropocene, investments, Lenny Smith, Lorenz, nonlinear, numerical algorithms, numerical analysis, politics, population biology, population dynamics, prediction markets, Principles of Planetary Climate, public transport, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, sampling networks, sustainability, Timothy Lenton, Yale University Statistics Department, zero carbon, ``The tide is risin'/And so are we''
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## Results of short literature search on impacts of climate change upon ecosystems and bird or animal migration patterns, from the journals of the *Ecological Society of America*

I decided to do a quick literature search on the impacts of climate change upon ecosystems and migration patterns. I could have kept the list private, but why not make it public? Not all these articles are purely about the … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, American Statistical Association, Anthropocene, biology, climate change, climate education, climate models, complex systems, differential equations, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ecological services, Ecological Society of America, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, evidence, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, marine biology, mass extinctions, nonlinear systems, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, tragedy of the horizon
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## Chesterton’s fence, ecological sensitivity, and the disruption of ecological services

Hat tip to Matt Levine for introducing me to the term Chesteron’s fence: Chesterton’s fence is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. … In the matter of … Continue reading

## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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