### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Earle Wilson
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- All about models
- "The Expert"
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Gavin Simpson
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Karl Broman
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- London Review of Books
- Gabriel's staircase
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- American Statistical Association
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Ted Dunning
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.

### climate change

- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Ice and Snow
- SolarLove
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- MIT's Climate Primer
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Skeptical Science
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- And Then There's Physics
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- David Appell's early climate science
- Earth System Models
- RealClimate
- weather blocking patterns
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Simple models of climate change
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- World Weather Attribution
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: generalized linear models

## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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## Senn’s `… never having to say you are certain’ guest post from Mayo’s blog

via S. Senn: Being a statistician means never having to say you are certain (Guest Post) See also: E. Cai’s blog post “Applied Statistics Lesson of the Day – The Matched Pairs Experimental Design”, from February 2014 A. Deaton, N. … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, cancer research, data science, ecology, experimental design, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, medicine, sampling, statistics, the right to know
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

Inspired by the extensive and excellent work in approximate Bayesian computation (see also), especially that done by Professors Christian Robert and colleagues (see also), and Professor Simon Wood (see also), it occurred to me that the complaints regarding lack of … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, generalized linear models, machine learning, numerical analysis, numerical software, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, support of black boxes
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## Is Earth Much More Sensitive to CO2 Than Thought?

Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:

A nahcolite from the Eocene Green River Formation. Credit: Timothy Lowenstein Phys.org: Ancient climates on Earth may have been more sensitive to carbon dioxide than was previously thought, according to new…

Posted in Anthropocene, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Principles of Planetary Climate, risk, science
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## Southern Oscillation (SOI) correlated with Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)

To the climate community this is nothing at all new, but I spotted these time series today and thought they would make a nice exhibit on how something people have direct control over, greenhouse gas emissions, affect a “teleconnection mechanism” … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, bifurcations, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, IPCC, Mathematica, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, oceanography, open data, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, state-space models, thermodynamics, time series
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