### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- American Statistical Association
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Risk and Well-Being
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Earle Wilson
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Slice Sampling
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- "The Expert"
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- James' Empty Blog
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- London Review of Books
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Label Noise
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- All about Sankey diagrams

### climate change

- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Climate model projections versus observations
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- RealClimate
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- The Sunlight Economy
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Ice and Snow
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Reanalyses.org
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- SolarLove

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: generalized linear models

## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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## Senn’s `… never having to say you are certain’ guest post from Mayo’s blog

via S. Senn: Being a statistician means never having to say you are certain (Guest Post) See also: E. Cai’s blog post “Applied Statistics Lesson of the Day – The Matched Pairs Experimental Design”, from February 2014 A. Deaton, N. … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, cancer research, data science, ecology, experimental design, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, medicine, sampling, statistics, the right to know
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

Inspired by the extensive and excellent work in approximate Bayesian computation (see also), especially that done by Professors Christian Robert and colleagues (see also), and Professor Simon Wood (see also), it occurred to me that the complaints regarding lack of … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, generalized linear models, machine learning, numerical analysis, numerical software, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, support of black boxes
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## Is Earth Much More Sensitive to CO2 Than Thought?

Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:

A nahcolite from the Eocene Green River Formation. Credit: Timothy Lowenstein Phys.org: Ancient climates on Earth may have been more sensitive to carbon dioxide than was previously thought, according to new…

Posted in Anthropocene, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Principles of Planetary Climate, risk, science
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## Southern Oscillation (SOI) correlated with Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)

To the climate community this is nothing at all new, but I spotted these time series today and thought they would make a nice exhibit on how something people have direct control over, greenhouse gas emissions, affect a “teleconnection mechanism” … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, bifurcations, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, IPCC, Mathematica, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, oceanography, open data, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, state-space models, thermodynamics, time series
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