### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Earle Wilson
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- All about models
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Gavin Simpson
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- "The Expert"
- What If
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- James' Empty Blog
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Awkward Botany
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Professor David Draper
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Ted Dunning
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- London Review of Books
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Risk and Well-Being

### climate change

- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- MIT's Climate Primer
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Reanalyses.org
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- The Sunlight Economy
- David Appell's early climate science
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- weather blocking patterns
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Risk and Well-Being
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Social Cost of Carbon
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Earth System Models
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Sea Change Boston
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: generalized linear models

## A quick note on modeling operational risk from count data

The blog statcompute recently featured a proposal encouraging the use of ordinal models for difficult risk regressions involving count data. This is actually a second installment of a two-part post on this problem, the first dealing with flexibility in count … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Bayesian, Bayesian computational methods, count data regression, dichotomising continuous variables, dynamic generalized linear models, Frank Harrell, Frequentist, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, GLMMs, GLMs, John Kruschke, maximum likelihood, model comparison, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, nonlinear, numerical software, numerics, premature categorization, probit regression, statistical regression, statistics
Tagged dichotomising continuous variables, dichotomizing continuous variables, premature categorization, splines
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## Senn’s `… never having to say you are certain’ guest post from Mayo’s blog

via S. Senn: Being a statistician means never having to say you are certain (Guest Post) See also: E. Cai’s blog post “Applied Statistics Lesson of the Day – The Matched Pairs Experimental Design”, from February 2014 A. Deaton, N. … Continue reading

Posted in abstraction, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, cancer research, data science, ecology, experimental design, generalized linear mixed models, generalized linear models, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, medicine, sampling, statistics, the right to know
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

Inspired by the extensive and excellent work in approximate Bayesian computation (see also), especially that done by Professors Christian Robert and colleagues (see also), and Professor Simon Wood (see also), it occurred to me that the complaints regarding lack of … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, generalized linear models, machine learning, numerical analysis, numerical software, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, support of black boxes
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## Is Earth Much More Sensitive to CO2 Than Thought?

Originally posted on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:

A nahcolite from the Eocene Green River Formation. Credit: Timothy Lowenstein Phys.org: Ancient climates on Earth may have been more sensitive to carbon dioxide than was previously thought, according to new…

Posted in Anthropocene, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Principles of Planetary Climate, risk, science
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## Southern Oscillation (SOI) correlated with Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)

To the climate community this is nothing at all new, but I spotted these time series today and thought they would make a nice exhibit on how something people have direct control over, greenhouse gas emissions, affect a “teleconnection mechanism” … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, bifurcations, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, IPCC, Mathematica, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, oceanography, open data, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, state-space models, thermodynamics, time series
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