667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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Category Archives: Jerry Jenkins

New Meetup: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens

Posted on 26 February 2021 by ecoquant

I have started a new Meetup group: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens. I am inviting anyone with an interest in mosses and lichens to join in, particularly if you live in the “greater Massachusetts area”. Because of pandemic, there’ll be no … Continue reading →

Posted in ABLS, American Bryological and Lichenological Society, American Statistical Association, biology, Botany, Brent Mishler, bryology, bryophytes, citizen data, citizen science, ecology, field biology, field research, field science, Hale Reservation, Janice Glime, Jerry Jenkins, lichenology, lichens, longitudinal survey of mosses, macrophotography, maths, mesh models, mosses, Nancy G Slack, National Phenology Network, population biology, population dynamics, Ralph Pope, science, spatial statistics, statistical ecology, Sue Williams, the right to know, Westwood | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • Ted Dunning
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Label Noise
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • Gavin Simpson
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    • American Statistical Association
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
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    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • All about models
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
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    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
  • climate change

    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • World Weather Attribution
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • Spectra Energy exposed
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • Ice and Snow
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • SolarLove
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
    • Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Thriving on Low Carbon
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Earth System Models
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
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