667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: Ralph Pope

New Meetup: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens

Posted on 26 February 2021 by ecoquant

I have started a new Meetup group: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens. I am inviting anyone with an interest in mosses and lichens to join in, particularly if you live in the “greater Massachusetts area”. Because of pandemic, there’ll be no … Continue reading →

Posted in ABLS, American Bryological and Lichenological Society, American Statistical Association, biology, Botany, Brent Mishler, bryology, bryophytes, citizen data, citizen science, ecology, field biology, field research, field science, Hale Reservation, Janice Glime, Jerry Jenkins, lichenology, lichens, longitudinal survey of mosses, macrophotography, maths, mesh models, mosses, Nancy G Slack, National Phenology Network, population biology, population dynamics, Ralph Pope, science, spatial statistics, statistical ecology, Sue Williams, the right to know, Westwood | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

  • Blogroll

    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • James' Empty Blog
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • All about Sankey diagrams
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • Awkward Botany
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
    • Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • American Statistical Association
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • London Review of Books
    • "The Expert"
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Slice Sampling
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
    • Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
    • Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Earle Wilson
    • Karl Broman
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
    • Professor David Draper
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
    • What If
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
  • climate change

    • "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
    • Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • weather blocking patterns
    • The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Earth System Models
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • RealClimate
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
    • The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • World Weather Attribution
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Warming slowdown discussion
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
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    • Stranded Assets Nightmare 29 November 2021
    • Botkin’s Discordant Harmonies, a comment 28 November 2021
    • ‘Keystone Pipeline Developers Seek $15 Billion From U.S. for Cancellation’ 23 November 2021
    • My favorite presentation on climate disruption these days 23 November 2021
    • Photo of the week: Repeatedly distressed Mnium hornum 19 November 2021
    • Gee, if all maths classes were like this, they’d be exhausting … 18 November 2021
    • “Aggregating the harms of fossil fuels” 17 November 2021
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    • Hydrogen production from curtailed generation 8 November 2021
    • Losing sight of the big picture 8 November 2021
    • Stuart Stevens: Covid a Stress Test, and So Far We’re Failing 7 November 2021
    • The Truth about Sea Level Rise 2 November 2021
    • Climate Music Break: Pink Floyd, David Bowie, Comfortably Numb 2 November 2021
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    • “They are liars … You can have the best capitalism in the world, but if people are dead, they’re dead. It’s over.” 1 November 2021
    • “I have given up. I am here to talk about the science.” 1 November 2021
    • “How should children learn about climate change?” 30 October 2021
    • Future liability for fossil fuel energy producers and conveyors 29 October 2021
    • Comment on “Federal policy can drive the solar industry… but still may fall short” 28 October 2021
    • Yeah, like many aspects of the biosphere, forests and their contribution to sequestering Carbon is complicated 21 October 2021
    • Dr Gilbz 20 October 2021
    • In the field 19 October 2021
    • Climate Facts from James Hansen and Makiko Sato Ahead of COP26 14 October 2021
    • An Open Letter from U.S. Scientists Imploring President Biden to End the Fossil Fuel Era 9 October 2021
    • “It’s the exact opposite.” 7 October 2021
    • Rationale for XR, short term 5 October 2021
    • “I don’t want my grandchildren to suffer” XR 5 October 2021
    • Stopping climate disruption and eating cookies 5 October 2021
    • Myths 5 October 2021
    • Stephen Fry on XR 5 October 2021
    • A very recent Bill McKibben on Where We Are 1 October 2021
    • “A political dynamic …” 1 October 2021
    • Meet Solkjøring 28 September 2021
    • Greta, YouthCOP, 2021 28 September 2021
    • First Contact, and the Long Now Foundation 26 September 2021
    • Vineyard Sound, Rhode Island Sound, August, 2021 17 September 2021
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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