667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: Sue Williams

New Meetup: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens

Posted on 26 February 2021 by ecoquant

I have started a new Meetup group: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens. I am inviting anyone with an interest in mosses and lichens to join in, particularly if you live in the “greater Massachusetts area”. Because of pandemic, there’ll be no … Continue reading →

Posted in ABLS, American Bryological and Lichenological Society, American Statistical Association, biology, Botany, Brent Mishler, bryology, bryophytes, citizen data, citizen science, ecology, field biology, field research, field science, Hale Reservation, Janice Glime, Jerry Jenkins, lichenology, lichens, longitudinal survey of mosses, macrophotography, maths, mesh models, mosses, Nancy G Slack, National Phenology Network, population biology, population dynamics, Ralph Pope, science, spatial statistics, statistical ecology, Sue Williams, the right to know, Westwood | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
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    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • "The Expert"
    • The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
    • London Review of Books
    • GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
    • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
    • Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
    • Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • All about models
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
    • Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
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    • In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
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    • Risk and Well-Being
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    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
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    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
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    • Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • Earle Wilson
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    • Beautiful Weeds of New York City
    • Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • Gavin Simpson
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
  • climate change

    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • World Weather Attribution
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
    • "Climate science is setttled enough"
    • “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • The Sunlight Economy
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • weather blocking patterns
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
    • Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
    • The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
    • Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
    • Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Ice and Snow
    • Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
    • HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
    • Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
    • David Appell's early climate science
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
    • The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
    • Skeptical Science
    • NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
    • CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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