667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
"Whether we and our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do." — Wendell Berry
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Category Archives: Nancy G Slack

New Meetup: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens

Posted on 26 February 2021 by ecoquant

I have started a new Meetup group: Massachusetts Mosses and Lichens. I am inviting anyone with an interest in mosses and lichens to join in, particularly if you live in the “greater Massachusetts area”. Because of pandemic, there’ll be no … Continue reading →

Posted in ABLS, American Bryological and Lichenological Society, American Statistical Association, biology, Botany, Brent Mishler, bryology, bryophytes, citizen data, citizen science, ecology, field biology, field research, field science, Hale Reservation, Janice Glime, Jerry Jenkins, lichenology, lichens, longitudinal survey of mosses, macrophotography, maths, mesh models, mosses, Nancy G Slack, National Phenology Network, population biology, population dynamics, Ralph Pope, science, spatial statistics, statistical ecology, Sue Williams, the right to know, Westwood | Leave a comment
  • Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

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    • Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
    • Professor David Draper
    • Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
    • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
    • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
    • Healthy Home Healthy Planet
    • Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
    • Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
    • London Review of Books
    • NCAR AtmosNews
    • distributed solar and matching location to need
    • Awkward Botany
    • AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • All about models
    • Ted Dunning
    • Risk and Well-Being
    • Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
    • The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
    • The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
    • Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
    • Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
    • Mertonian norms
    • Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
    • Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
    • Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
    • Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
    • Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
    • Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
    • Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
    • John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
    • WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
    • Dr James Spall's SPSA
    • Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
    • The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
    • Label Noise
    • Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
    • Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
    • "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
    • Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
    • John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
    • Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
    • SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
    • OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
    • Harvard's Project Implicit
    • Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
    • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
    • BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
    • ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
    • Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
  • climate change

    • Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
    • History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
    • Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
    • The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
    • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
    • Climate model projections versus observations
    • James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
    • ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
    • Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
    • Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
    • "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
    • Reanalyses.org
    • Wally Broecker on climate realism
    • Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
    • Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
    • Solar Gardens Community Power
    • Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
    • Jacobson WWS literature index
    • Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
    • Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
    • Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
    • "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
    • Social Cost of Carbon
    • An open letter to Steve Levitt
    • Simple models of climate change
    • Sea Change Boston
    • “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
    • Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
    • Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
    • AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
    • “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
    • Earth System Models
    • Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
    • `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
    • Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
    • The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
    • Climate Change Denying Organizations
    • "A field guide to the climate clowns"
    • Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
    • Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
    • MIT's Climate Primer
    • All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
    • Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
    • "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
    • Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
    • "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
    • Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
    • RealClimate
    • `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
    • Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
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  • Goodreads

  • Kalman filtering and smoothing; dynamic linear models



    Also, see datasets and R examples to accompany this excellent text.





    I have used dlm almost exclusively, except when extreme efficiency was required. Since Jouni Helske's KFAS was rewritten, though, I'm increasingly drawn to it, because the noise sources it supports are more diverse than dlm's. KFAS uses the notation and approaches of Durbin, Koopman, and Harvey.

    ``The real problem is that programmers have spent far too much time worrying about efficiency in the wrong places and at the wrong times; premature optimization is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming.''
    Professor Donald Knuth, 1974
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy
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