### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Slice Sampling
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Awkward Botany
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Risk and Well-Being
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Gavin Simpson
- What If
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Ted Dunning
- Earle Wilson
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- London Review of Books
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/

### climate change

- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Simple models of climate change
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- David Appell's early climate science
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Risk and Well-Being
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Sea Change Boston
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Warming slowdown discussion
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- SolarLove
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- And Then There's Physics
- Reanalyses.org
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Ice and Snow
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: R statistical programming language

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app

Updated, 20th October 2020 This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo
1 Comment

## On odds of storms, and extreme precipitation

People talk about “thousand year storms”. Rather than being a storm having a recurrence time of once in a thousand years, these are storms which have a 0.001 chance per year of occurring. Storms aren’t the only weather events of … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, catastrophe modeling, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, ecopragmatism, evidence, extreme events, extreme value distribution, flooding, floods, games of chance, global warming, global weirding, insurance, meteorological models, meteorology, R, R statistical programming language, real estate values, risk, Risky Business, riverine flooding, science, Significance
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## Macros in R

via Macros in R See also: The gtools package of R which enables these. There’s a description and motivation beginninng on page 11 of an (old: 2001) R News issue. They have been around a long time, but I haven’t … Continue reading

Posted in macros, R, R statistical programming language
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## Procrustes tangent distance is better than SNCD

I’ve written two posts here on using a Symmetrized Normalized Compression Divergence or SNCD for comparing time series. One introduced the SNCD and described its relationship to compression distance, and the other applied the SNCD to clustering days at a … Continue reading

Posted in data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, hydrology, Ian Dryden, information theoretic statistics, J.T.Kent, Kanti Mardia, non-parametric statistics, normalized compression divergence, quantitative ecology, R statistical programming language, spatial statistics, statistical series, time series
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## On bag bans and sampling plans

Plastic bag bans are all the rage. It’s not the purpose of this post to take a position on the matter. Before you do, however, I’d recommend checking out this: and especially this: (Note: My lovely wife, Claire, presents this … Continue reading

Posted in bag bans, citizen data, citizen science, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Ecology Action, evidence, Google, Google Earth, Google Maps, goverance, lifestyle changes, microplastics, municipal solid waste, oceans, open data, planning, plastics, politics, pollution, public health, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, reasonableness, recycling, rhetorical statistics, sampling, sampling networks, statistics, surveys, sustainability
2 Comments

## Sampling: Rejection, Reservoir, and Slice

An article by Suilou Huang for catatrophe modeler AIR-WorldWide of Boston about rejection sampling in CAT modeling got me thinking about pulling together some notes about sampling algorithms of various kinds. There are, of course, books written about this subject, … Continue reading

Posted in accept-reject methods, American Statistical Association, Bayesian computational methods, catastrophe modeling, data science, diffusion processes, empirical likelihood, Gibbs Sampling, insurance, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, maths, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical algorithms, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, percolation theory, Python 3 programming language, R statistical programming language, Radford Neal, sampling, slice sampling, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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