Category: risk
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What Boston will eventually look like under TWO DEGREES global warming
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in adaptation, Boston, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, ecology, environment, floods, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, living shorelines, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, nor’easters, oceanography, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, sea level rise, statistics, zero carbonInternational efforts are under way to bring greenhouse gas emissions to zero in a manner fast enough to limit global warming to +2 degrees Celsius. That’s proving tough to do, and there are some expectations it won’t be achieved. Some people ask where the +2 degrees comes from. One striking example of what +2 degrees…
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disruption to global electricity production during the next 25 years
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in adaptation, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, dynamical systems, economics, energy, engineering, environment, ethics, exponential growth, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, global warming, history, investment in wind and solar energy, mathematics, maths, methane, microgrids, natural gas, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, sociology, solar power, statistics, stochastics, sustainability, taxes, the right to know, Tony Seba, transparency, wind power, zero carbonI am a huge fan of Tony Seba’s writings and work, primarily because I am an engineer, and I simply cannot accept that the situation with the impending climate catastrophe is hopeless. Engineers are eternal optimists. Not everyone will be happy with the nature and orderliness of the burgeoning solution to the crisis (or lack…
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Climate Justice
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, bifurcations, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, compassion, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, dynamical systems, economics, education, energy, energy reduction, environment, ethics, fossil fuel divestment, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, history, humanism, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, temporal myopia, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists, zero carbonDecember 2015 will see the definitive meeting of the UNFCCC COP 21 intended to set targets and commitments under the UN treaty establishing UNFCCC and the IPCC, one approved and ratified by the United States (*). Before then, a good deal of back room negotitation and submittal of what are called “INDCs” has been going…
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China, solar power, the Gobi Desert, and 3 years
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in Anthropocene, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, conservation, decentralized electric power generation, efficiency, energy, environment, ethics, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, investment in wind and solar energy, NASA, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, solar power, temporal myopia, wind power, zero carbonNASA’s Earth Observing Satellite 1 has been imaging Earth’s surface for a while. That permits long term comparisons. One is dramatic evidence of China’s commitment to zero Carbon energy, in the Gobi Desert. Here are two images from that platform, taken in 2012 and again in 2015. China’s present installed solar capacity is 33 gigawatts.…
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“Laudato Si”
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in citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, compassion, ecology, economics, education, environment, ethics, geophysics, global warming, humanism, IPCC, meteorology, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, temporal myopia, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists, zero carbonThose who possess more resources and economic or political power seem mostly to be concerned with masking the problems or concealing their symptoms … Clearly, the Bible has no place for a tyrannical anthropocentrism unconcerned for other creatures … The church must introduce in its teaching the sin against the environment. The ecological sin. (Updated,…
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Why decentralized electrical power has to win, no matter what Elon Musk says, and utilities are doomed
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in bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, compassion, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, ethics, exponential growth, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, living shorelines, mass transit, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, microgrids, natural gas, NCAR, NOAA, nor’easters, obfuscating data, oceanography, open data, optimization, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, scientific publishing, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, solar power, state-space models, statistics, temporal myopia, testing, the right to know, time series, wind power, zero carbon -
“Time to take out the trash”
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in carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, compassion, conservation, decentralized energy, denial, ecology, economics, education, energy, environment, ethics, exponential growth, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, humanism, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, living shorelines, meteorology, physics, politics, population biology, public transport, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, sociology, zero carbon -
One year, and ten years of carbon dioxide concentration readings, Mauna Loa
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in carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, consumption, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, ethics, exponential growth, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, meteorology, NOAA, open data, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, statistics, sustainability, temporal myopia, the right to know, time series, zero carbonFrom NOAA.
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‘The Solutions Project’
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in bifurcations, civilization, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, compassion, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, ecology, economics, efficiency, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, microgrids, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science education, sea level rise, solar power, sustainability, wind power, zero carbonMark Ruffalo on the Daily Show, mentioning, among other things, his keen interest in the 100% campaign, a program, begun by people at Stanford University and the University of California at Berkeley, to switch 100% of all 50 states in the United States to 100% zero carbon energy. Optimism. Don’t believe it? Check out the…
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“Ecological impacts”
I could not get through this video with dry eyes. It is as bad as the (great) Cosmos episode on the Permian mass extinction. This is from a couse I am taking, “Denial 101x: The Science of Climate Denial“, from eDX.
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“How mankind blew the fight against climate change” (Bill McKibben)
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in bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, environment, exponential growth, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, microgrids, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, solar power, statistics, temporal myopia, UU Humanists, wind power, zero carbonWorth a read. More pessimistic than usual from Mr McKibben. If historians someday need to explain how mankind managed to blow the fight against climate change, they need only point to last month’s shareholder meeting at Exxon Mobil headquarters in Dallas. The meeting came two days after Texas smashed old rainfall records — almost doubled…
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The United States does not need any more darn natural gas pipelines
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in carbon dioxide, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, microgrids, natural gas, rationality, reasonableness, risk, solar power, wind powerIt only uses 46% of the ones it has, as summarized by N. J. Peress. This is underscored, with detailed analysis, by the Quadrennial Energy Review done by the U.S. Department of Energy, available at: Overview Full Report A detailed document library Fact sheets Summary for policymakers Mr Peress also remarks, importantly, The typical lifespan…
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On the Climate Club
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in citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, ecology, economics, education, environment, ethics, geophysics, global warming, humanism, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, open data, open source scientific software, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, state-space models, statistics, stochastic search, stochastics, sustainability, temporal myopia, time series, transparency, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists, wind power, zero carbonBut if the other advanced nations had a stick — a tariff of 4 percent on the imports from countries not in the “climate club” — the cost-benefit calculation for the United States would flip. Not participating in the club would cost Americans $44 billion a year. This sort of approach offers perhaps the best…
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“All large oil companies now use a shadow price of carbon”
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in carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, decentralized energy, economics, energy, environment, exponential growth, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, natural gas, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, temporal myopia, zero carbonSee https://plus.google.com/110148824733929465219/posts/cN46vebpUvi.
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“Clean burnin’ natural gas …”
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in bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, education, environment, exponential growth, fossil fuel divestment, fracking, global warming, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, methane, microgrids, natural gas, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, statistics, sustainability, temporal myopia, zero carbonThe carbon dioxide emissions of the United States are increasing again, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration in their Monthly Energy Review. Guess what fuel is heavily contributing to the rise: Of course, clean burnin’ natural gas: A bridge to nowhere. And this doesn’t include the effects of methane emissions at all.
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On the futility of speaking with (and working with) local politicians
I had a chat with a local politician yesterday, at a party of a mutual friend. It did not go well. Claire and I have been moving a sustainability agenda in town (and elsewhere!) for a few years, and have gotten somewhat adept at getting attention in the right places. Not necessarily support, mind you,…
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Another reason to decentralize electricity generation
There’s a report that a former KGB spy worked on the New York State electric grid for years. The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News have both reported on the susceptibility of the electric grid to terrorist attack. No doubt other elements of the energy grid, such as the hundreds of thousands of miles of…
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“el Niño and the Non-Spherical Cow”
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in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, ecology, economics, ENSO, ethics, forecasting, global warming, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, politics, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, statistics, stochastics, temporal myopia, time series, transparencyWith the emergence of an el Niño, this post by Tamino about ENSO from 2013 is good to review, as an antidote to the rubbish that will be and is coming from the shills paid by the fossil fuel obfuscation complex (“FFOC”) and their colleagues.
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Brian Swett discusses Boston’s climate future | NOAA Climate.gov
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in Boston, climate change, climate disruption, ecology, economics, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, history, investment in wind and solar energy, living shorelines, mass transit, meteorology, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, public transport, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, sociology, statistics, temporal myopia, the right to know, time series, wind power, zero carbonBrian Swett discusses Boston’s climate future | NOAA Climate.gov.
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United States found liable in Katrina flooding of New Orleans
From the New York Times, the United States government has been found liable for the failure of the walls of a 76-mile-long canal which flooded a substantial portion of New Orleans after the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina. Now the question is, to what extent can other government bodies be held financially responsible for damages due…
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Oklahoma: Not OK
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in bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, citizen science, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate education, education, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fracking, geophysics, maths, natural gas, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics, time seriesFunny how convenient it is to paint over inconvenient truths. Yo Tamino!
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“I’m sorry.”
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in carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, compassion, ecology, economics, education, environment, ethics, fossil fuel divestment, humanism, meteorology, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, the right to know, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists“It is up to us to take care of this planet.”
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Eli Rabett on the APS “Draft Statement on Earth’s Changing Climate”
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in carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, chemistry, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, diffusion processes, ecology, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, meteorology, methane, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, politics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, solar power, testing, the right to know, time series, WHOI, wind powerThis is from Rabett Run. The American Physical Society (“APS”) is working on a draft statement on climate change. Compared to other scientific organizations (and my own primary society, the American Statistical Association), it’s sure taking them a long time. My criticism of the draft statement is the lack of urgency. Given that damage to…
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“Climate Change, the Elevator Pitch”
Richard Alley: Katharine Hayhoe: Eric Rignot: Simon Donner: Mauri Pelto: Ken Caldeira:
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Earth Day, my hope
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in carbon dioxide, Carl Sagan, Charles Darwin, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate education, compassion, conservation, Darwin Day, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, education, efficiency, energy reduction, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, history, humanism, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, privacy, probit regression, R, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, scientific publishing, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sociology, the right to know, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists, WHOI, wind power -
“This planet comes with limits”
Carl Safina elaborates on the limits of exploitation. It’s consistent with what David Suzuki conveys in his succinct presentation, linked below: As Suzuki says, this isn’t politics or opinion, or even biology, it’s just math.