Category Archives: ENSO

On Munshi mush

(Slightly updated on 2016-06-11.) Professor Emeritus Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University has papers recently cited in science denier circles as evidence that the conventional associations between mean global surface temperature and cumulative carbon emissions are, well, bunk, due to … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, cat1, climate, climate change, climate data, climate education, climate models, convergent cross-mapping, dynamic linear models, ecology, ENSO, environment, Ethan Deyle, evidence, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, greenhouse gases, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, mathematics, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, prediction, state-space models, statistics, Takens embedding theorem, Techno Utopias, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series, zero carbon | 1 Comment

This Earth Day: The Data

(Amendments on 25the April 2016.) Sorry, folks, it’s It’s not just El Niño. El Niño’s have gotten bigger over the years. (Click on image for a larger picture. Use your browser Back Button to return to blog.) (Click on image … Continue reading

Posted in American Petroleum Institute, Antarctica, Anthropocene, Arctic, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, Bill Nye, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, Chevron, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corruption, Dan Satterfield, ecology, El Nina, El Nino, ENSO, environment, evidence, Exxon, false advertising, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuels, fracking, geophysics, glaciers, glaciology, global warming, greenhouse gases, Gulf Oil, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, icesheets, ignorance, James Hansen, John Cook, La Nina, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, organizational failures, physics, rationality, reasonableness, regulatory capture, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, selfishness, Spaceship Earth, statistics, sustainability, Texaco, the problem of evil, the right to know, the tragedy of our present civilization, UU Humanists, WAIS, WHOI, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, zero carbon

Paris’ COP21: Great cheerleading from the diplomats, but … +ENSO is here

This target is, however, extremely demanding. Climate researchers have explored only a few scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 °C. They show that global emissions of greenhouse gases must be between 70% and 95% lower in 2050 than they were in … Continue reading

Posted in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, climate, climate change, climate disruption, COP21, Eaarth, ecology, economics, El Nino, ENSO, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, La Nina, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, physics, planning, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, sustainability, Svante Arrhenius, zero carbon | 1 Comment

November Hottest Ever, and Christmas Likely To bring Record Warmth in The East (Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal; AGU Blogosphere)

The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week,… (Click on image for larger map, … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, capricious gods, climate, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, physics, science, the right to know, wave equations

El Nino In A Can – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can inte… Source: El … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, astrophysics, climate, climate change, climate models, computation, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, diffusion, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Kerry Emanuel, mathematics, maths, mesh models, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, numerical analysis, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, stochastics, supercomputers, the right to know, thermodynamics, time series

December 2015 Temperature Anomalies

(Click on image for a larger picture. Use your browser return button to come back.) From Dan Satterfield’s blog and analysis. And, if you want to see what we’re in for, and where the dark corners are, check out this … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, Anthropocene, bollocks, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, Dan Satterfield, ENSO, environment, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, oceanography, open data, physics, science, statistics

Southern Oscillation (SOI) correlated with Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)

To the climate community this is nothing at all new, but I spotted these time series today and thought they would make a nice exhibit on how something people have direct control over, greenhouse gas emissions, affect a “teleconnection mechanism” … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, bifurcations, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, Dan Satterfield, differential equations, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, IPCC, Mathematica, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, numerical software, oceanography, open data, physics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, science, Spaceship Earth, state-space models, thermodynamics, time series

Southern New England Meteorology Conference, 24th October 2015

I attending the 2015 edition of the Southern New England Meteorology Conference in Milton, MA, near the Blue Hill, and its Blue Hill Climatological Observatory, of which I am a member as we as of the American Meteorological Society. I … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, capricious gods, climate, Dan Satterfield, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, floods, forecasting, geophysics, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, mesh models, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, probability, science, spatial statistics, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, time series | 1 Comment

Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Source: Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Posted in bifurcations, capricious gods, chance, climate change, Dan Satterfield, ensembles, ENSO, games of chance, maths, meteorology, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, precipitation, prediction, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, spatial statistics

WHT’s “Climate Sensitivity and the 33C Discrepancy”

I happened across a blog post (from 2013) by the mysterious blogger known as WHT (*) titled “Climate Sensitivity and the 33C Discrepancy“. If I could, I’d reblog it here, but their blogging site is not WordPress-friendly. WHT is now … Continue reading

Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, WHT | 1 Comment

Sea Surface Anomalies

(Hat tip to Susan Stone.) The graphic below shows sea surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1971-2000 baseline First data are courtesy of the Climate Reanalyzer, a joint project of the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, and … Continue reading

Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, MCMC, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, time series, transparency | 1 Comment

“Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky” – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

Posted in chance, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, history, mathematics, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, risk, science, statistics

“Storm-proven forecasting gets yearlong trial”

Storm-studying scientists have made their next-generation forecasting system available online so the wider weather community can put it to the test. After using the real-time system during short-lived field research campaigns, developers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) … Continue reading

Posted in citizen science, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, open data, physics, precipitation, science, science education, scientific publishing, spatial statistics, statistics

A promise forward …

I’ve made a commitment at Google Plus to detail the implications of underestimated rainfall in terms of precipitation risk. I’m planning to tie this up with my informal work on the Town of Sharon’s water supply, in Sharon, MA.

Posted in chance, citizenship, ecology, ENSO, environment, floods, forecasting, geophysics, meteorology, politics, precipitation, rationality, state-space models, statistics, stochastics

“el Niño and the Non-Spherical Cow”

Originally posted on Open Mind:
Most people who follow climate science are aware that one of the natural factors which affects global temperate is the el Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It’s a mode of natural variation in the tropical eastern…

Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, ecology, economics, ENSO, ethics, forecasting, global warming, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, politics, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, statistics, stochastics, temporal myopia, time series, transparency