### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Risk and Well-Being
- Earle Wilson
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- What If
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Ted Dunning
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Label Noise
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Slice Sampling
- Karl Broman
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Gabriel's staircase
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City

### climate change

- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- The Sunlight Economy
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- weather blocking patterns
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Risk and Well-Being
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- MIT's Climate Primer
- RealClimate
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Reanalyses.org
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Social Cost of Carbon
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Durbin and Koopman

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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